** India-Pakistan tensions again escalate after Kashmir gunfight
As we've been reporting, the situation in India-governed Kashmir
continues to deteriorate, and the tensions between India and Pakistan
continue to escalate, as India blames Pakistan for the Kashmir terror
attacks, and Pakistan denies it.
Nine people, including four Indian soldiers and a policeman, were
killed in a gunfight in Kashmir on Monday. A civilian and three
alleged terrorists from Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM)
were also killed.
The gunfight occurred as Indian police returned to the neighborhood of
the militants who are believed to have caused last week's huge VBIED
(vehicle-borne improvised explosive device) car bomb attack on a bus,
killing over 40 Indian paramilitary police.
The Indian police had promised revenge for last week's attack. They
got their revenge on Monday, but also lost five more Indian security
forces in the resulting gunfight.
Kanwal Jeet Singh Dhillon of the Indian army bragged that the
terrorists had been killed "less than 100 hours." He said the
following in a Tuesday press conference:
We were tracking the Jaish [JeM] in the valley. As you know the
convoy attack with the control being done by them, along with the
control being done by Pakistan Army and ISI.
In less than 100 hours, we have eliminated the JeM leadership in
the valley.
Anyone who picks up a gun will now be eliminated in J&K. I urge
family members to tell their loved ones to give up the gun and
follow the surrender policy. We have a very good and cooperative
surrender policy, and that is the correct way to go. If not, from
here on, the armed forces will eliminate anybody who picks up a
gun.
Investigation is at a very advanced stage. We cannot share details
at the moment.
When encounters happen in civilian areas, we tell people not to
venture out. We cordon off the area and urge people to stay at
home and not interfere. We try our best to keep the civilian
casualty to its minimum.
Kamran was a Pakistani and was being handled by JeM Pakistan in
coordination with the Pak Army and ISI. He was a top commander in
the Valley.
JeM is a child of the Pakistan Army. It is 100 per cent certain
that Pakistan Army was involved, there should be no doubt about
it.
As I analyze this statement, I note that it just seems to be more
of the same.
I compare this statement by Dhillon to a statement by the Chief of Sri
Lanka's army in January 2008, when he committed to defeating the Tamil
insurgence once and for all by the end of 2008. This statement set a
firm deadline, which created a mood where the army would take any
steps necessary to destroy the Tamil insurgency by te end of 2008. I
considered this statement to be signaling a generational "Regeneracy,"
referring to the regeneracy of civic unity since the end of the
preceding generational crisis war. As it turned out, the insurgents
increased using civilians as human shields, and the army increased
attacks on insurgents, even when it meant killing the human shield
civilians. The insurgent Tamil Tigers were forced to surrender in
April 2009. Both sides were charged with war crimes.
So when I look at Dhillon's statement, I don't see anything like the
same intensity. There's no time deadline, and no other red lines.
It's not much different from June 2017, when India's army launched
"Operation All-Out," which so far has been a failure.
So I don't evaluate Dhillon's statement as indicating a
generational Regeneracy.
That could change overnight, of course. Another massive terror attack
might be so shocking to India's public that they demand a time
deadline and/or other red line. This would mean a substantial change
to the Indian army's playbook. Instead of "We try our best to keep
the civilian casualty to its minimum," as in Tuesday's statement,
they'll say something that would imply little or no concern
for civilians lives. It would probably also indicate a military
action on Pakistani soil, rather than just the usual vague
verbal threat.
On Tuesday, Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan responded to India:
> How can one country's leadership be the Judge, Jury and
> Executioner. What sort of justice is this?
> All this attack on Pakistan keeping elections in mind. But if at
> all these are serious, Pakistan will not think of retaliating, it
> will retaliate.There will be no other option left with Pakistan.
> Pakistan is a country which has dealt the most with terrorism. We
> have suffered the most and lost the most.
> Pakistan is moving towards stability. Why would we do something
> like this. If there is any actionable intelligence, I will assure
> you Pakistan will take action on priority.
Once again, a mild response, not setting any red lines.
--- India / Pakistan / Pulwama attack: Nine killed in Kashmir gun
battle
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-47275072
(BBC)
--- Pulwama Attack Updates: In Briefing, Armed Forces Says "No
Doubt Pak Army Controls Jaish-e-Mohammed"
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pulwama ... ck-1995607
"New Delhi TV"#>
--- Related:
** Sri Lanka appears close to war (12-May-2006)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e060512
** Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels (4-Jan-2008)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080104