Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest JP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest JP »

THE TANK MAN

I remember watching C-Span in the 1990s, and (I forget who) a former CIA chief (or some other high ranking agent) told the interviewer that the man in front of the tank had been captured and killed days after the event. The CIA agent was sure of it, but he refused to reveal any details when pressed. That brave man was murdered by the barbaric regime that controls China. RIP.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

North Korea's former top nuclear envoy seen with Kim Jong Un on Sunday: KCNA

https://news.yahoo.com/north-koreas-for ... 32384.html

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

..let's all have a go at playin' that Game of Politics and Intrigue...

Hide the Envoy...!!


..fun for all, and a relief at not bein' dead for some!

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

@John

One of the premises of your theory is that the Sunni Muslim countries will be on the other side of a war against the West. Given that Saudi Arabia is the heart of the Sunni world and that the US and Saudi Arabia have had a tacit agreement for decades, (Saudi Arabia will keep the oil flowing and the US will protect Saudi Arabia against external threats) when and how do you see this linkage breaking?

I don't see a change in the Iranian leadership in the near future and I think the current regime is sufficiently entrenched to keep dissent suppressed in the medium term. Given that Iran is the existential threat to Saudi Arabia, SA is unlikely to move into the Chinese orbit unless China becomes anti-Iranian. That looks to be unlikely given that China tends not to take sides for or against countries it isn't in close proximity to.

The only thing I can think of is if Iran actually tests a nuclear weapon. The US would oppose Saudi efforts to build their own weapons which would massively strain relations. There is the possibility that the US would build up the same kind of anti-missile infrastructure that it has in South Korea with THAAD batteries and patrols of Burke class destroyers mounting SM-3/6 missiles which could allay Saudi concerns.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Xeraphim1 wrote:@John

One of the premises of your theory is that the Sunni Muslim countries will be on the other side of a war against the West. Given that Saudi Arabia is the heart of the Sunni world and that the US and Saudi Arabia have had a tacit agreement for decades, (Saudi Arabia will keep the oil flowing and the US will protect Saudi Arabia against external threats) when and how do you see this linkage breaking?

I don't see a change in the Iranian leadership in the near future and I think the current regime is sufficiently entrenched to keep dissent suppressed in the medium term. Given that Iran is the existential threat to Saudi Arabia, SA is unlikely to move into the Chinese orbit unless China becomes anti-Iranian. That looks to be unlikely given that China tends not to take sides for or against countries it isn't in close proximity to.

The only thing I can think of is if Iran actually tests a nuclear weapon. The US would oppose Saudi efforts to build their own weapons which would massively strain relations. There is the possibility that the US would build up the same kind of anti-missile infrastructure that it has in South Korea with THAAD batteries and patrols of Burke class destroyers mounting SM-3/6 missiles which could allay Saudi concerns.
I'm not John, to state the obvious, but...

John's "analysis", based on GD Theory, isn't suited to making short term (or even medium term) "how it'll happen" predictions. Period.

There are innumerable possibilities as to how the "Iranian and Saudi Flip™" will occur.

One possibility that I "like" is the one where Iran flips due to a "student" revolt and Saudi Arabia "reforms" it's version of Sunni Islam to be "tolerant" of Shi'a Islam (Iran) which has the net effect of having BOTH Iran and the Saudis in the West's camp. This would also "allow" the rest of the Sunni world (not "intimately linked" to the Saudis) to ally with China as they wish.

..crazy, I know, but it is "picturesque"! :)

Anyway,.. the point is that HOW the "Great Realignment" happens is not really predictable, while the inevitability that it WILL happen is a veritable certainty.

..assuming that GD Theory holds.



(( This is the reason that John casts his "image" as akin to Cassandra's [of Troy, daughter of Priam], as his predictions aren't believed because no one believes John's underlying theory, and even when those predictions prove true, he gets no credit because some "unrelated" reason for the predicted event takes the credit, which "discredits" [nullifies] John's theory and prediction.

Predictions aren't actually true until they happen, and more "palatable reasons" than "reasons from unpalatable theories" will always be chosen as the "actual reasons" that an event happened. ))

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Jun-2019 Iran, Saudi alignments in next world war
Xeraphim1 wrote: > @John One of the premises of your theory is that the Sunni Muslim
> countries will be on the other side of a war against the
> West. Given that Saudi Arabia is the heart of the Sunni world and
> that the US and Saudi Arabia have had a tacit agreement for
> decades, (Saudi Arabia will keep the oil flowing and the US will
> protect Saudi Arabia against external threats) when and how do you
> see this linkage breaking?

> I don't see a change in the Iranian leadership in the near future
> and I think the current regime is sufficiently entrenched to keep
> dissent suppressed in the medium term. Given that Iran is the
> existential threat to Saudi Arabia, SA is unlikely to move into
> the Chinese orbit unless China becomes anti-Iranian. That looks to
> be unlikely given that China tends not to take sides for or
> against countries it isn't in close proximity to.

> The only thing I can think of is if Iran actually tests a nuclear
> weapon. The US would oppose Saudi efforts to build their own
> weapons which would massively strain relations. There is the
> possibility that the US would build up the same kind of
> anti-missile infrastructure that it has in South Korea with THAAD
> batteries and patrols of Burke class destroyers mounting SM-3/6
> missiles which could allay Saudi concerns.
I've answered this question probably hundreds of times in the last
15 years. Political deals may last a few months, but centuries of wars
and hatreds lead to hatreds and attitudes that ignore ephemeral
political deals and lead to generational crisis wars. For example,
Russia and China have a political deal these days, but the Russian
and Chinese people have deep hatred for each other, going back
at least as far as the Mongol invasions, and the two countries
were close to war as recently as the 1960s.

Here's a summary of the reasoning that I've posted before:

China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia. China and India
are bitter enemies, as are Pakistan and India. Russia and India are
very closely allied, and India is very closely allied with Iran, as
Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of
Karbala in 680. So the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states.

Just remember that Russia was our bitter enemy before WW II, was our
ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy after WW II.
But those political attitudes completely dissolved during
WW II, when both Russia and the West faced existential crises.

You can't make judgments from today's fatuous political alignments to
how nations will act when they're forced to make hard choices in the
context of a generational crisis war. These major decisions are made
by the populations, large generations of people, not by a few
politicians when a nation and its way of life are threatened.

The alliance that you described between Saudi Arabia and the US (oil
for security) is really a remarkable one, and has been in place since
the 1930s. Nonetheless, that's a government to government alliance,
not one that the ordinary people are involved in, and there's a great
deal of hostility between Saudis and Americans, especially since 9/11,
and also hostility between Christians and Sunni Muslims.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Jun-2019 Why Generational Dynamics successes are ignore
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > I'm not John, to state the obvious, but...

> John's "analysis", based on GD Theory, isn't suited to making
> short term (or even medium term) "how it'll happen"
> predictions. Period.

> There are innumerable possibilities as to how the "Iranian and
> Saudi Flip™" will occur.

> One possibility that I "like" is the one where Iran flips due to a
> "student" revolt and Saudi Arabia "reforms" it's version of Sunni
> Islam to be "tolerant" of Shi'a Islam (Iran) which has the net
> effect of having BOTH Iran and the Saudis in the West's camp. This
> would also "allow" the rest of the Sunni world (not "intimately
> linked" to the Saudis) to ally with China as they wish.

> ..crazy, I know, but it is "picturesque"! :)

> Anyway,.. the point is that HOW the "Great Realignment" happens is
> not really predictable, while the inevitability that it WILL
> happen is a veritable certainty.

> ..assuming that GD Theory holds.

> (( This is the reason that John casts his "image" as akin to
> Cassandra's [of Troy, daughter of Priam], as his predictions
> aren't believed because no one believes John's underlying theory,
> and even when those predictions prove true, he gets no credit
> because some "unrelated" reason for the predicted event takes the
> credit, which "discredits" [nullifies] John's theory and
> prediction.

> Predictions aren't actually true until they happen, and more
> "palatable reasons" than "reasons from unpalatable theories" will
> always be chosen as the "actual reasons" that an event
> happened. ))
Thanks for that explanation for why the success of Generational
Dynamics predictions is never acknowledged. Your explanation
is good way of putting it.

You're right that when Iran "flips," it will flip in the direction of
the West, since the older hardline generations are under more and more
pressure from the younger generations, who are generally pro-Western,
and in fact usually blame their own hardliners for problems rather
than blaming Westerners. However, the "flip" in the case of the
Saudis will be much more extremist, along the lines of the Taliban,
al-Qaeda and ISIS. There isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that the
Arab and Persian people will be aligned.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 04-Jun-2019 Why Generational Dynamics successes are ignore
FishbellykanakaDude wrote:... blah blah blah...
Thanks for that explanation for why the success of Generational
Dynamics predictions is never acknowledged. Your explanation
is good way of putting it.
It's a rather obvious truth, which doesn't seem to occur to people nearly as often as you'd think it would.

Is it just that people don't LIKE to ask the "why" questions, or is it that the "how" questions always have to be answered first before people even consider the "why" questions?

..or both? <chuckle!> Almost certainly both, actually. I can see why the "why" questions might be put off until "it's safe" to posit them, as the "how" questions can (sorta kinda) more likely keep you out of immediate danger, but it's silly to never get around to the "why" questions.
You're right that when Iran "flips," it will flip in the direction of
the West, since the older hardline generations are under more and more
pressure from the younger generations, who are generally pro-Western,
and in fact usually blame their own hardliners for problems rather
than blaming Westerners. However, the "flip" in the case of the
Saudis will be much more extremist, along the lines of the Taliban,
al-Qaeda and ISIS. There isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that the
Arab and Persian people will be aligned.
Yeah,.. you must admit, it WOULD be spectacular if the Saudis were to reform their "national form of Islam" to be tolerant of alliances with the Shi'a!?

..being one to always imagine the most "dramatically fecund" (story-wise) possibility in any given scenario, that asbestos snowflake of a possibility would, OF COURSE, be the one I seize upon.

It would be a great story! ..gotta admit! :) Aloha dude! <shaka nui!>

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Jun-2019 Pigs fly
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Yeah,.. you must admit, it WOULD be spectacular if the Saudis were
> to reform their "national form of Islam" to be tolerant of
> alliances with the Shi'a!?
That's true. And you have to admit that it would also be spectacular
if pigs started flying.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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When will your book on China be published?

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