Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

This doesn't make sense to me. Let's assume that everything you say is
right, and the Saudi government is backing a coup. So let's assume
that the coup is successful. Then what?

Then Jordan remains in Saudi Arabia's sphere of influence. Although it may cause Hashemite nationalists to rise up and cause Jordan to become unstable.

Maybe this was just family infighting and the King felt he had to put his brother into place? Why does everything have to be a trip down the rabbit hole?

[spottybrowncow]

I don't think this has been posted yet, it backs up some of John's earlier observations on anti-Asian violence. Fascinating read.

https://quillette.com/2021/03/25/race-a ... arratives/

[Guest]

The Nikkei report describes that one common emerging view among Japanese officials is that

China is indeed preparing to dramatically scale-up its presence in the Senkakus and other contested islands in a bid to assert control.

This, the report says, is likely to lead to a "nightmare scenario" for the Japan Coast Guard, which goes something like this:

A Chinese fishing boat breaks down near Japan's Senkaku Islands. China, which claims the islands and calls them the Diaoyu, instructs its own coast guard to protect the boat. The fishermen land on one of the islands to wait for repair parts, ignoring warnings by Japan. Amid tension and confusion, alarmed China coast guard personnel start firing at their Japanese counterparts.

Amid repeated Chinese incursions in waters near the Senkakus, such scenarios are not out of the question any more. Discussions within Japan's ruling party have reignited regarding the need for legislation that explicitly lays out the rules of engagement in such cases.

China has spent years warning Tokyo over the islands which have been contested for over a century, with the United States officially recognizing Japan's claims over the uninhabited islands, and with Biden previously reiterating America's commitment to protective them in accord with Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty.

[Guest]

My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics.

Then, yes, his going after the Baltics will require a NATO response.

But my guess is that they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade him.

He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the Baltics. This is my guess.

How long of a breather?

ARM THE CHECHENS.

My bet is that he goes for Ukraine soon (within a couple of weeks at the latest). After that is done, the Russians will wait for the USA to be embroiled in Asia (Taiwan, Korea, Japan) before going after the Baltic states.

Now that Putin has the Belarusian president in his pocket, Putin feels he can act.

Being informed from a multitude of sources in addition to prepping for real - and one will see fairly easily what's just over the horizon.

First, the US is pulling its *military* out of Europe and the ME (Syria will be the last bastion depending on the Russians). There is a noticeable pivot towards the Pacific and especially the western Pacific (South, East and South East Asia). This is happening with a lot of urgency and haste.

Secondly, since Ukraine signed into law on 3 February the admission of foreign military for exercises, the imminent Cossack Mace exercises will take place between the UK and Ukraine. Also scheduled are the Ukrainian-U.S exercises Rapid Trident 2021 and Sea Breeze 2021, the Warrior Watcher 2021, the Ukrainian-Romanian exercises Riverine 2021, and the Ukrainian-Polish drills Three Swords 2021 and Silver Sabre 2021. These will be mainly with NATO member states on Russian borders or close thereto. The entirety of NATO states has a population of around 400 million and is extremely heavily armed. Providing any incursions by Russia into Ukraine are not nuclear, and they WILL NOT BE NUCLEAR - then Ukraine and the 400 million behind Ukraine will be able to contain and eliminate any penetration. This is why the US is pivoting away from Europe.

Thirdly, Biden and his handlers *know* that what Xi is doing in the SCS (Whitsun Reef) is a test of Biden and his administration. And the US. Obama failed this test and lost cred and the US lost cred in the failed 2012 effort to strike a deal for a mutual withdrawal at the Scarborough Shoal. Biden will NOT permit this to happen on his watch.

Fourthly, there's Duterte. No one has heard from him since the Whitsun Crisis started. He is an *** licker to China but, hey, how's that working out for you, thug? Anyhow, there is a national election next year, the coronavirus has not been kind to the Philippines and Duterte will soon permit the US to help out. That will be all Biden needs to come in, in a measured response.

All of this means that war is coming to the SCS and other proximate regions. There may be an attempt to invade Taiwan but that isn't foreseeable at this stage, Taiwan is no pushover. But there is very likely to be extreme violence, soon, due to Xi's deceit. There will be no repeat of the Obama embarrassment.

[Guest]

How soon is soon? I've been hearing chants of 'Cry Havoc' for over a decade. Are we now talking months or years? Weeks? Days? Or decades? A US admiral talked about up to seven years. Does anyone really know?

[Xeraphim1]

1. The US isn't materially weaker in Europe than it was last year or even five years ago. Despite the foot-dragging by most European countries, procurement of military equipment is rising with little quantitative change against Russia but a much bigger positive qualitive change. Keep in mind that Russia has an economy about the size of Italy and a tech base at least ten years behind Europe which is 5-10 years behind the US. Russia has very little "new" equipment, just upgrades to which is gives new names in an attempt to disguise the fact that it's still building old designs. Absent nuclear weapons, NATO is more than capable to defeating the entire Russian military and the margin of superiority is growing by the year.

2. Russia is facing economic problems right now with fast rising consumer prices and stagnant incomes. Putin's popularity is sagging and real economic reform isn't possible due to the kleptocratic autocracy that rules Russia right now. One of Putin's favorite tools is foreign military adventures. Banging the war drums is sure to give him a least a little more support and quiet the opposition a little. As long as nothing goes horribly wrong. Ukraine is a good target since it's militarily and politically weak with no real allies. I don't think Putin has any intention of conquering Ukraine or even in annexing Donetsk. There is no deep historical connection and it honestly isn't worth very much right now. Crimea has turned into an economic sinkhole and Putin doesn't need another one of those.

3. China is playing a different game. It will nibble around the edges and keep whatever it can take without much effort, but a big war would risk the stability of the Chinese system that keeps the top people in their comfy positions. Whatever their hatred of Japan or the US or any other country, there is still that built in conservatism that suppresses the desire for war. Communist China is not Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. On the other hand, China will also not give up anything it currently holds.

4. Duterte's foreign policy is schizophrenic. In truth, I think that part of the job bores him and he doesn't put serious thought into it. Popular opinion in the Philippines is very strongly pro-US and increasingly anti-China though Duterte isn't really swayed by popular opinion. In any case, he Duterte can't run for president again so next May he'll be out. The question is who will replace him. It's too early to tell right now with no one other than Sara Duterte (who says she isn't running) getting even 15%. Whoever it is will most likely strengthen US ties.

Will there be war in the SCS? That is up to China to decide. The US won't go to war to remove China from any of the territories is currently possesses and no one else has the strength to fight China. Will China go to war for some territory of very marginal value? I think it's unlikely. The most likely event would be formal Taiwan independence. But Taiwan knows that and has been careful not to cross that line. So far.

[DaKardii]

Fourthly, there's Duterte. No one has heard from him since the Whitsun Crisis started. He is an *** licker to China but, hey, how's that working out for you, thug? Anyhow, there is a national election next year, the coronavirus has not been kind to the Philippines and Duterte will soon permit the US to help out.

Don't be so sure.

Duterte has already made it clear that he hates the US and sees China as a lesser evil. He's also a former member of the Kabataang Makabayan, an underground Maoist youth group that has been banned since 1972. He was even personally mentored by Jose Maria Sison, the founder of the Communist Party of the Philippines, which in turn is Maoist.

For these reasons, I have a strong feeling that Duterte will intentionally sell out when it comes to Whitsun, and then ally with China against the US when war finally breaks out. He may well be a Quisling in the waiting.

[Jjjj]

Russia is in harsh decline. Outside of Moscow it's the Congo with white people. And yes, I've seen it with my own eyes. Russia is a rats nest.

Why do Russians tolerate Putin? In my opinion it's because the Russians are sheep. Also, the average Russian I've encountered is dishonest and vulgar. They expect their leaders to be the same. The poor, who make up the majority of Russians are dependent on Putin. There is a sense of dependency in Russia that I haven't encountered anywhere else. In America, welfare queens in the inner city have a sense of entitlement , but lack any sense of economics. It never crosses their minds that America could crash and they could lose life support. Poor Americans are often ingrates. Russians are too but after 1991, Russians know they could and probably will lose life support again.

Russians outside of Moscow are unhappy but content with crumbs. Right now, the crumbs are running out and distant places are losing the ability to supply the locals. Russians will rise up at that point because they will be starving to death. I expect Russia to breakdown and break up. Even Russians will break away from Moscow.

Putin is often praised, even in the West, as an efficient leader. He is not. Russia is rotting. He is just a common thief. Russia will collapse sooner rather than later.

Then we can all "cry havoc".

[DaKardii]

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov states that Ukraine could be "destroyed" in the event of war.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukra ... SKBN2BO5F2

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky announces a "Crimean Platform" conference scheduled for August 23; among the discussions will include how to "liberate" Crimea.
https://www.unian.info/politics/crimean ... 76982.html

[DaKardii]

Chinese State Television Apparently Invented A Fake French Journalist To Defend Against Uighur Genocide Allegations
https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/chinese-s ... legations/