Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Also, how long can the Indians and Chinese play games before ordinance starts flying:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian- ... es-2234082
Pakistan neutralizes India.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

You know all those dire warnings about the 'cure' being worse than the 'disease'?

Well, they were true. Just you wait and see. 💀

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Well what other outcome could there possibly be? Careers, businesses, futures have been wrecked in some sentimental struggle to save Granny Ryan, which more often than not failed anyway, or she died two weeks later of old age or a failing heart or wahtever. Future generations will look back in awe on this madness, wholesale failure of leadership, sacrificing the greatest good of the greatest number for the benefit of a handful of people,

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 25-May-2020 World View: India-China border conflict in Ladakh
utahbob wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 10:38 pm
> Thank you John, it is a honor to serve our constitution and fellow
> citizens.
There's a lot of talk these days that Covid-19 has substantially
harmed operations in the US armed forces. Do your contacts have any
view on that subject?
utahbob wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 10:38 pm
> You might find this interesting:
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hong ... SKBN23101T
> The last two sentences are very telling: "China believes Tsai to
> be a “separatist” bent on declaring the island’s formal
> independence. Tsai says Taiwan is already an independent country
> called the Republic of China, its official name."

> I wondering if the CCP can take that laying down?
Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong separatists are all aligning against
the CCP, and time is not on the CCP's side.
utahbob wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 10:38 pm
> Also, how long can the Indians and Chinese play games before
> ordinance starts flying:
> https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian- ... es-2234082
This is a very interesting story. Here's another article:

** Tension mounts in Ladakh as China brings in more troops; India
maintains aggressive posturing

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 924455.cms

Recall how WW II started -- with a misunderstanding and minor clash in
the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I described at length in my book
and summarized in my May 17 article. It was a small incident, it was
settled quickly, but both sides brought in reinforcements and it led
quickly to the Rape of Nanking and full-scale war.

The Ladakh border incident is remarkably similar to the Marco Polo
Bridge incident. The Chinese and Indians hate each other, the levels
of nationalism and xenophobia are very high on both sides, there was a
brief clash, it was settled, but both sides are bringing in
reinforcements.

This doesn't mean that the Ladakh border incident will lead to full
scale war. But something similar to the Ladakh border incident could
spiral into full-scale war tomorrow or next week or next month or next
year. In fact, we can be certain that it will happen. The only
question is when.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Trevor wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 11:07 am
Something I'm curious: why don't Russia and Germany have the same kind of loathing for each other Japan and China do? In WWII, Germany launched a war of extermination against them and killed around 10 million Russian soldiers, 15 million civilians, not counting millions more across Eastern Europe. However, while relations aren't what I would call warm, I also don't see the same deep hatred China and Japan have for one another.
Before the 1914 War Russia and Germany were quite friendly. The Seven Years' War (1756-63) was the only war they fought each other--but this was in the days before Total War which I'll get to before noting that the Hohenzollerns and Romanovs had even intermarried: the Tsar Liberator Alexander II was the nephew of the Kaiser Wilhelm I who was deeply affected when his nephew got blown up in 1881. Once Total Wars start happening with the full mobilization and utilization of everything a society has that is when the real hatreds both start and are manufactured as war propaganda. Of course the antique hatreds--there are a few of them left--have somewhat fallen by the wayside. Protestant vs. Catholic is there but outside of Ulster and Irishmen who cares? Sorry, John, but I'm surprised you aren't more anti-Turkey as a Greek-American. How many get worked up over British support of the Confederacy? The Savagery of the French Revolution gets transmuted by cooks and journalists to be commemorated in Lobster Thermidor. (Few are aware the French had idiotic ideas about time and devised a totally new calendar; after 10 years or so they gave up on it--but their changes in measurements stayed. The US is about the only place that has stoutly resisted measuring everything by tens.)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John, but I'm surprised you aren't more anti-Turkey as a Greek-American.
Gag.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 26-May-2020 World View: The Futility of War
Bob Butler 54 wrote: > The biggest difference is that I am looking for a basic pattern
> transformation with nukes and computers. You have incorporated
> many observations of one age, and tried to apply them in
> another. I don’t think you can. The basic pattern would shift, but
> you are still looking at how things were before the change. Thus,
> if anything, you are not seeing how technology drives progress
> enough. The process of how nuclear powers step closer to crisis
> confrontation would be very different from in the Industrial
> Age. Yet, you are still looking at xenophobia rather than the much
> changed way that governments send messages to each other these
> days. You are stubbornly refusing to see that nukes
> traumatize.
Well, maybe I'm stubborn, but this isn't a political or ideological
issue. To the contrary, I've examined thousands of generational
events going back thousands of years, and I haven't noticed any
differences in the way that generational eras change in different
ages. There might be changes in detail or in social trends -- for
example, you won't have college students rioting in an Awakening era
in an age where there are no colleges -- but the core principles
remain the same.

So I've looked at thousands of examples. I believe that if there were
any change from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age, then I
would have noticed it. And if I had noticed it, I would have pointed
out it, and even noted that it was a significant discovery.

For example, I have discovered that Awakening eras are different in a
predictable way depending on the whether the preceding crisis war was
an internal or external war. This is actually a very significant
discovery, though no one gives a shit. Perhaps it will be noticed
after I'm dead. (As the Bee Gees said, "I started a joke, which
started the whole world crying. But I didn't see that the joke was on
me, oh no. ... 'Til I finally died, which started the whole world
living! Oh, if I'd only seen that the joke was on me.")

So my point is that if there were differences over the centuries in
going from one age to the next, then I would have noticed it, and if I
had noticed it, I would have declared it as a signficant discovery.
But no such thing has happened.

There are very good reasons why there shouldn't be any differences.
There is one thing that is true of most animals (including humans) at
all times in history -- that the food supply grows exponentially, but
the population grows exponentially even faster. In the case of
humans, this means that at regular intervals there have to be
genocidal wars to kill off enough people so that there will be enough
food and water for the survivors. This is true in the Agricultural
Age, the Industrial Age, and any other age, even in an age with
nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons make no difference except, of
course, that they will be used.

As I've recently suggested, almost 20 years of Generational Dynamics
have made me a believer in the futility of war. That doesn't mean
that I've become a left-wing antiwar pacifist. I remain a fatalist.
Actually wars are necessary to kill off enough people so that there's
enough food and water for everyone else. So wars are futile but
necessary.

Wars are like earthquakes. An earthquake occurs when there is too
much accumulated stress on the fault line between major tectonic
plates. The earthquake isn't good or bad, but it's absolutely
necessary because it's needed to relieve the stress along the fault
line in the earth's crust.

Similarly, genocidal crisis wars occur when there's too much
acculumulated stress on the fault line between different ethnic groups
because of population growth. The genocidal crisis war isn't good or
bad, but it's absolutely necessary because it's needed to relieve the
stress along the fault line between ethnic groups.

There's another similarity between earthquakes and genocidal wars.

Earthquakes kill a lot of people and flatten a lot of buildings, but
over the next couple of decades everything gets rebuilt and things go
back to the way they were. Nothing has really changed. Earthquakes
are futile but necessary.

Similarly, genocidal crisis wars kill a lot of people and topple a lot
of governments, but over the next few decades, by the end of the
Awakening era, things spring back to the way they were. Nothing has
really changed. Genocidal crisis wars are futile but necessary.

One example is the old joke that if the Nazis had won the war, then
today everyone in France and Britain would be speaking German. That's
really ridiculous. The Nazis lost the war, but the same thing
happened with Russia taking control of Eastern Europe, and according
to the logic of the old joke, everyone in all Eastern European
countries should be speaking Russian today. That's obviously not
true, and by the Unraveling era, pretty much everything had sprung
back to the way it was, including the reunification of Germany.
Similarly, Hitler's "Thousand Years" would not have lasted even two
generational eras.

So if there's a world war with nuclear weapons, then in the decades
after it ends, people in China, Japan, the US, and other countries
will pore through the rubble and rebuild their cities in the same way
that the Japanese rebuilt Hiroshima. Nothing will really change. War
with nuclear weapons is futile but necessary. That's the way the
world works.

No debt

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by No debt »

Guest wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 4:09 am
Well what other outcome could there possibly be? Careers, businesses, futures have been wrecked in some sentimental struggle to save Granny Ryan, which more often than not failed anyway, or she died two weeks later of old age or a failing heart or wahtever. Future generations will look back in awe on this madness, wholesale failure of leadership, sacrificing the greatest good of the greatest number for the benefit of a handful of people,
The British are a bunch of inbred, bad toothed, spaghetti-spined people. They have no will to fight back. The only thing they will riot over is soccer and the local pub running out of fish and chips.

For Pete's sake, they let a Muslim come in, be the Mayor and totally destroy London. Every other day someone is getting stabbed or acid thrown in their faces. And victims of criminals are getting arrested and given jail time. Meanwhile the NHS is on a crusade to kill as many people as they can with medical mistakes.

Do I need to go on about Brexit ?

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 26-May-2020 World View: Black Plague
John J. Xenakis wrote: > In the case of humans, this means that at regular intervals there
> have to be genocidal wars to kill off enough people so that there
> will be enough food and water for the survivors.
Warren Dew wrote: > If the underlying cause of Crisis wars is population stress,
> shouldn't that mean that in times of declining population, the
> wars will be milder or nonexistent?

> This question is why I'm interested in whether there were visible
> generational patterns in the Dark Ages, when population was
> decreasing due to the Black Plague.
I haven't researched that, but it certainly makes sense, and it would
be an interesting test of the assertion that some generational
patterns are affected by the per capita availability of food and other
resources.

One example where it appears to be true is the Irish Potato Famine
(1845-49), which several people have claimed completely replaced any
generational crisis war between the Irish Rebellion (1793-98) and the
Independence War (1912-22). That certainly seems to be the case.
However, in other cases, it would seem more likely that a plague would
postpone, rather than replace, a crisis war.

There's a related assertion that a crisis war can be postponed with
wealth. There are several "Fifth Turning" countries today, and some
of them -- Mexico, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia -- have benefited from a
lot of oil wealth, and have used wealth to postpone any internal
threats of civil war. However, other explanations would have to be
found for other Fifth Turning countries, like Turkey and Russia.

About ten years ago I read Barbara Tuchman's excellent book, "A
Distant Mirror - The Calamitous 14th Century," which describes the
plague and the hundred years' war. I'm looking back at some things
that I posted in 2009, and apparently I concluded then, based on
Tuchman's book, that the 100 Years War war began in 1337, and was
barely interrupted by the plague, leading to the British victory in
1356 at the Battle of Poitiers, which is the crisis war climax for the
first phase of the war. This devastated France and settled the
conflict for a few decades. Then, the second part of the war climaxed
in 1429 with the Siege of Orléans, the decisive French victory led by
Jeanne d'Arc, which led finally to the settlement of the war in 1453.

That's all I have on the Black Plague. Higgenbotham, who posts in the
Financial Topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum, has done
extensive research on the Florentine financial collapse in the 1340s,
and you could ask him if you're interested in that aspect.

ScratInTheHat
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:47 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by ScratInTheHat »

There are a lot of events and circumstances that get overshadowed by other parts of history. These overshadowed elements could have as much push as the events we consider major. The Great Famine that started in 1315 should have been a marked point in the history of Europe. It has become so overshadowed by the Great Plague that it is hardly remembered at all. It could have been a major reason that so many died during the Great Plague because they had been beaten down for years before this later event. There are also perceptions of the life of times in history that do not hold up to the archaeological evidence. The Pax Romana is thought of as a time of great wealth for people within the Empire. Archaeological evidence from graves before and after the Roman Empire taking control of The British isles show that during Roman rule there was less prosperity not more. History is not this clean thing that most see it to be. Much of what we think happened didn’t happen in the way we have been taught.
Last edited by ScratInTheHat on Wed May 27, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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