Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 25-Apr-2021 World View: Death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno

I haven't been posting much for a few days because I've been working
on an article about the death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno
last week. He died in battle, personally leading his army in defense
of the capital from rebels.

Ordinarily the death of an African leader wouldn't generate much
interest in the West, but in this case Déby was the lynchpin of
France's entire counter-terrorism efforts in the African Sahel. His
death could signal the further rise of Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and ISIS,
all of whom are active in the Sahel, and all of whom were being
challenged by France's Operation Barkhane, with Déby amd Chad's
military being the most important fighters. Now, Chad may become
unstable, and may even fall to the rebels that Déby was fighting, and
this could destabilize the whole region, and that would leave France's
counter-terrorism efforts in shambles.

• Map of Northern Africa, highlighting the Sahara Desert and Sahel Region

[Tom Mazanec]

Jerome Powell and the Coming Inflation
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... ation.html

Powell’s First Mistake – Raising Interest Rates under Trump
Powell’s Second Mistake –Promising to Let Inflation Take Off
Powell’s Third Mistake – Slowing Fossil Fuel Investment
Powell’s Fourth Mistake – Endorsing Trade Deficits

Powell’s first four-year term at the Federal Reserve ends in February 2022. At that point, the Biden administration will likely reappoint him to a second term so that he can continue to restrict loans to fossil-fuel developers and continue to keep his feet off the interest-rate brakes.
Eventually, Powell or his successor will discover that it is a lot easier to let inflation get started than it is to bring it under control. Once the Fed puts on the brakes, Biden’s sugar high will turn into a post-sugar crash due to rising interest rates and rising trade deficits.
The worst-case scenario would occur if foreigners stop using the inflating dollar as the medium of exchange in international transactions, resulting in a crash in the dollar’s exchange rate, much higher prices for imports, and a huge cut in the American standard of living. China appears to be preparing for that scenario by rolling out a digital yuan that could be used as an alternative to the dollar for international transactions.

[mooreupp]

Are there still majority Russian areas in the Ukraine border states that are still under Ukrainian government control?

My guess is Russia tries to annex the full Russian majority regions, but draws the line there (this would make the 3rd time Putin has done something like that). I know a good portion of those are effectively under Russian separatist control now, but haven't seen if some of the areas are still controlled by the Ukraine government.

Bet the Ukraine really regrets sending the nukes back to Russia after the collapse of the USSR.

[John]

** 26-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey and China

> Turkey is threatening to leave NATO and ally with China, Russia,
> and Iran over Biden’s Armenian Genocide statements.

> Alas, in the end Turkey will be allied with just China when the
> war begins.

> https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/turkeys ... sia-666263

We've had this discussion before, but though you may be right, I have
a great deal of difficulty accepting this conclusion. Turkey's
brothers and cousins, the Turkic people, are spread across Central
Asia, and the Uighurs and Kazakhs are being tortured, raped, beaten
and enslaved in China by the millions, in the most horrific war crimes
since the 1930s.

Erdogan wants to pretend this isn't happening, but the Turkish people
don't always agree. This was obvious earlier this month when the
Mayor of Ankara shut off the water supply to the Chinese embassy.

*** 11-Apr-2021 World View: China's Uighur problem
viewtopic.php?p=60229#p60229

There's no way that the Turkish people are simply going to side with
China against China's enemies, except in narrow circumstances.

Turkey is in a unique geographic location, at the crossroads of
Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If you think about it, Turkey is
going to be facing at least a three-front war:

• Against China in Central Asia
• Against Russia in Crimea and the Caucasus
• Against Europe in the Balkans

And we still have to add Armenia, Syria's Alawites, and some old
Ottoman enemies.

So I can imagine all sorts of possible scenarios for Turkey. It might
be fighting one of those fronts, or all three either consecutively or
sequentially.

I heard an analyst on TV today say that China has established BRI
projects in 51 of 54 African countries, making each of these countries
a kind of "China lite," complete with arms, weapons and massively
expensive infrastructure projects.

A few months ago, I wrote about:

** 16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e201216


The summary is this: Guided by China's leadership, countries
throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their
disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract
capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi
Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal,"
of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound
together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One nation after
another will make concession to "mend old hatreds," except that China
will not make a single concession.

According to the newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."

This strategy assumes that Turkey and those 51 African nations will
all fall in line behind China. This is a joke, and is a particularly
delusional fantasy because China has pissed off everyone in the world
by infecting them with the Wuhan Coronavirus.

So will Turkey fight against the US alongside China? Anything is
possible, but I don't think so.

[Guest]

So will Turkey fight against the US alongside China? Anything is possible, but I don't think so.

Erdogan doesn't not represent the average Turk. His Islamic policies are backfiring. The number of Turkish women wearing the veil has dropped %5 in the last 3 years. Ten years ago 32% of Turks could themselves religiously conservative, now that number is less than 25%. The majority of Turks are secular. It's the poor that wear headscarves. Wearing hijab is a sign of poor education and downward mobility. The number of secular Turks is growing.

Erdodgan's polcies are tiresome and backwards. His Islamic schools are th easily the worst in the country and fit only for future village imans. Little study of math, science or literature. This education is only for those who want to return to the village? Who wants to do that?

Turks looked to the West. Turks are ethnic Asians, not Arabs or Persians. Also, Turkey was the Sick man of Europe--not Asian or the Middle East. Turks look to the West.

As for Turkey's armed forces, they have been gutted. The officer corps has been completely destroyed. Three star airforce generals have been anally aped with glass bottles in front of their imprisoned pilot officers. These men will never forget this. Today's Turkish military is more like Stalinist Russia's in 1938. The military has be decapitated. The Armed forces are the guardians of Secularism. That will not change.

I do not see the Turks becoing another Islamic Republic of Iran. Turks are too westernized.

Erdogan will suffer the fate of ex-president's of Turkish who abused their power.

[Tom Mazanec]

Who is that hanging, guest?

[John]

** 27-Apr-2021 World View: Adnan Menderes

> Who is that hanging, guest?

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news ... /104420807

[Tom Mazanec]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adnan_Menderes

[Tom Mazanec]

Inflation Rockets Launch
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/inf ... ts-launch/

[DaKardii]

If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that Turkey will be siding with China in the upcoming war.

The Turks have a near-genocidal hatred for the Armenians, as well as the Kurds. Both the Armenians and the Kurds are Russian allies. Meanwhile, Turkey is in a crisis era. This means that it won't be on the same side as Armenia, the Kurds, or Russia. And we already know that (again, assuming GD is correct) Russia will be siding with the US, because Russia is allied with India and India will be fighting China. At that point, the only possible outcome is that Turkey sides with China.

This will happen despite China's genocidal policies towards the Uighurs and the Kazakhs. Sure, the Turks consider the genocide in Xinjiang to be a sensitive issue. But they won't be in any position to challenge China's ambitions in Central Asia once they end up in a crisis war against Russia. Instead they will have to focus on defeating Russia and its allies, while hoping that they get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with China.