Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Kissinger is back at it; leading America down the road to hell.
"I would think we need first of all a dialogue with the Chinese leadership in which we are defining what we're attempting to prevent and in which the two leaders agree that whatever other conflicts they have they will not resort to military conflict," Henry Kissinger told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on November 16 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum.

"Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I."
At least there is some push back:
Of course no one wants war of any type with China, but in a little over 14 minutes Kissinger managed to totally misinterpret Chinese history, support Beijing's most important foreign policy goal, and give deeply misguided advice to Joe Biden. Kissinger has evidently learned nothing from years of dangerous Chinese behavior, which is partly the result of his policy formulations.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1678 ... singer-war

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:59 am
Kissinger is back at it; leading America down the road to hell.
"I would think we need first of all a dialogue with the Chinese leadership in which we are defining what we're attempting to prevent and in which the two leaders agree that whatever other conflicts they have they will not resort to military conflict," Henry Kissinger told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on November 16 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum.

"Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I."
At least there is some push back:
Of course no one wants war of any type with China, but in a little over 14 minutes Kissinger managed to totally misinterpret Chinese history, support Beijing's most important foreign policy goal, and give deeply misguided advice to Joe Biden. Kissinger has evidently learned nothing from years of dangerous Chinese behavior, which is partly the result of his policy formulations.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1678 ... singer-war
China's troubled past, in short, is an excuse. What, after all, is it in history that justifies present-day Chinese aggression against India, Bhutan and Nepal, or its designs on Tajikistan, the Philippines and Malaysia? Moreover, what justification is there for the Communist Party's declaration of a "people's war" on the United States in May of last year?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe allegiance to Beijing.[/quote

An interesting quote from the above article by Gordon Chang. This is what John has been talking about for years.

I refuse to kowtow to anyone.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 24-Nov-2020 World View: China after the war
Guest wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:27 pm
> Navigator mentioned the world will end up being ruled by dictators
> in a past post. What countries does he see becoming the new
> superpowers (or regional powers)?
Navigator wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:09 pm
> My belief is that after a major war, and after the collapse of the
> welfare states, the world is going to look something like a map of
> Germany after the 30 Years War (roughly mid 1600s).

> Who becomes a major power after that is anyone's guess, but many
> will try to become one. Leaders will arise in many areas. If
> they can unify their "tribe" or ethnicity, instill a warrior ethos
> in their people, and have access to enough resources, then they
> can embark on conquests. Their aim will be to end up in a
> position similar to Charlemange (or better).
Guest wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:59 am
> Kissinger is back at it; leading America down the road to hell.

> "I would think we need first of all a dialogue with the Chinese
> leadership in which we are defining what we're attempting to
> prevent and in which the two leaders agree that whatever other
> conflicts they have they will not resort to military conflict,"
> Henry Kissinger told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John
> Micklethwait on November 16 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum.

> "Unless there is some basis for some cooperative action, the world
> will slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I."

> https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1678 ... singer-war
Guest wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:04 am
> "Xi Jinping, the one man in China's system, is now propagating the
> audacious concept of tianxia, that "all under heaven" owe
> allegiance to Beijing."

> An interesting quote from the above article by Gordon Chang. This
> is what John has been talking about for years.

> I refuse to kowtow to anyone.
It's interesting that Kissinger is still living in the 1970s, at the
time of ping-pong diplomacy. At that time, China was flat on its back
from Mao's disastrous policies -- the Great Leap Forward and the
Cultural Revolution. These are some of the stupidest policies of any
country in the history of the world, and they so completely devastated
China that China's economy still hasn't recovered. But in the 1970s,
China was so desperate that at least it was possible to talk to them
sensibly. That hasn't been true for a long time now, with China's
contempt for international law and the rest of the world, whom they
consider to be barbarians. Kissinger doesn't realize how things have
changed since the Tiananmen Square bloodbath, and the question is
whether Biden's relationship with China is so completely compromised
that he'll adopt the Kissinger position. All the signs are that it is
compromised, but we'll see.

I believe that it was Toynbee a century ago who said that China
would be the dominant power in the 21st century. He made that
prediction based on the size and growth of China's population,
which seemed irrestible. I used to semi-believe that myself,
but as I've been writing about China for 20 years, I've gradually
believed it less and less, and after writing my book on China, I
now consider it to be impossible.

I've come to appreciate how thoroughly immersed the Chinese are in
Confucianism. Most Americans know Confucianism through Chinese
fortune cookies, and sayings like, "Confucius say: Man with one
chopstick go hungry." or "Confucius say: Man should not sleep with
woman with more troubles than he have." These fortune cookie
sayings give the impression that Confucianism is pleasant
and benign.

But I've come to understand how deadly and destructive Confucianism
has been for China. Domestically, it means that any leader is
automatically a dictator who cannot be contradicted, unless he makes a
mistake so egregious that he loses the "Mandate from Heaven," and then
a rebellion must ensue. Internationally, it means, as I said above,
contempt for international law and the view of the rest of the world
as barbarians whose only purpose is to serve the Chinese, in the same
way that donkeys serve farmers. The West tolerated this view for
decades, giving China the opportunity to take advantage of
organizations like the UN, the WTO and WHO, but resulting in
disastrous decisions like the annexation of the South China Sea, or
the enslavement of millions of Uighurs in concentration camps. Trump
has reversed some of China's most disastrous successes, but now we
have to watch and see whether Biden's relationship with China is so
thoroughly compromised that China will resume its contemptuous
treatment of America and the west with full force.

The point is that Confucianism is so disastrous for China that China
can't even govern itself. Consider China's recent history. For four
of the last eight centuries, China was actually ruled by other people
-- the Mongols and the Manchus. And as we've seen in the last 70
years, when the Chinese do control their own government, they become
extremely self-destructive. So I think that the CCP thugs do have an
erotic fantasy of China taking over the world role that America
currently holds, but I don't see any possibility of that, given the
destructive and self-destructive nature of Confucianism. You can't
lead a world of people that you think are donkeys.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 24-Nov-2020 World View: Open Skies Treaty
Bob Butler 54 wrote: > Well, it looks like the revenge phase is underway. Trump has
> declared the Open Skies treaty void, without bothering with the
> congressional approval needed to void a treaty. This treaty
> allows planes to scout for things like nuclear explosions, or
> preparations for invasion. Trump is not only ignoring the law
> which gives congress the ability to nullify treaties, but is
> trashing the only planes designed to look for nukes or potential
> invasions. This is in case Biden attempts to rejoin the treaty,
> say by notifying everyone that Trump hasn't the authority.
More garbage.

The withdrawal was announced in May, with the actual withdrawal to
take place in six months, which is now. The reason is that Russia
kept on violating the agreement. So it wasn't revenge, and it makes
sense. Let's now watch and see if Biden appeases Russia.

*** WPAFB and NASIC were key to Open Skies Treaty

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/am ... SXNFRSW4I/

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Navigator wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:09 pm
Guest wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:27 pm
Navigator mentioned the world will end up being ruled by dictators in a past post. What countries does he see becoming the new superpowers (or regional powers)?
My belief is that after a major war, and after the collapse of the welfare states, the world is going to look something like a map of Germany after the 30 Years War (roughly mid 1600s).

Who becomes a major power after that is anyone's guess, but many will try to become one. Leaders will arise in many areas. If they can unify their "tribe" or ethnicity, instill a warrior ethos in their people, and have access to enough resources, then they can embark on conquests. Their aim will be to end up in a position similar to Charlemange (or better).
I personally believe the postwar geopolitical environment will be very similar (but not identical) to the scenario presented in George Friedman's book The Next 100 Years. Whereas in the 2020s we see the simultaneous collapses of China, the EU, and Russia. Now Friedman himself believes that these collapses will occur without a major war, but he's almost certainly dead wrong on that part. China and Russia won't go down without a fight. The EU maybe, as it's an institution and not a nation-state, but not China and Russia. When those countries go down, it's going to be extremely bloody. Untold millions dead, just like during the Chinese warlord period and the Russian Civil War.

When those wars conclude, neither China nor Russia will be major powers anymore. France and Germany will also be severely weakened, but unlike China and Russia they will be merely down, not out. The subsequent power voids will be filled by three countries: Japan, Poland, and Turkey. I also expect India, the UK, and the US to make significant geopolitical gains, but not to the same extent as the other three. With a new geopolitical order will come the rise of new alignments. What they will end up being, I cannot tell you. Friedman believes that World War IV (or what he calls World War III) will pit India, Poland, the UK, and the US against Japan and Turkey, with France and Germany remaining neutral but sympathizing with Japan and Turkey. I however am not so sure it will go that way, especially if China ends up making a comeback during the interbellum period.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Friedman believes that World War IV (or what he calls World War III) will pit India, Poland, the UK, and the US against Japan and Turkey, with France and Germany remaining neutral but sympathizing with Japan and Turkey. I however am not so sure it will go that way, especially if China ends up making a comeback during the interbellum period.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Surely he jests.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Guest wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:31 pm
Friedman believes that World War IV (or what he calls World War III) will pit India, Poland, the UK, and the US against Japan and Turkey, with France and Germany remaining neutral but sympathizing with Japan and Turkey. I however am not so sure it will go that way, especially if China ends up making a comeback during the interbellum period.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Surely he jests.
No he doesn't. He's dead serious. That's actually how he thinks it will play out.

Though keep in mind that he's referring to a conflict that doesn't happen until 20-30 years after a complete breakdown in the current global order. If that conflict does happen, we're still decades away from it. The future leadership who will be in control at that time is currently in their teens and 20s. In other words, the younger end of the Millennials and the older end of Generation Z.

That being said, I agree with Friedman's take on what the new great powers will be. But I don't necessarily agree that WWIV (or what he calls WWIII) will have those powers align that way. There are several factors that could change things, the most obvious being the possibility of a resurgent China or a resurgent Russia. Should either of those things happen, all bets are off. We're gonna get a completely different conflict than what Friedman initially predicted.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

What's his prediction for WW V and WW VI?

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:14 pm
What's his prediction for WW V and WW VI?
He doesn't have any. Perhaps he believes WWV (or what he would call WWIV) will come in the 22nd century, as his book only covers the 21st.

On a side note, he does mention that in 2100 the prime foreign policy issue for the US will be a rising Mexico, which will become increasingly nationalistic and start making irredentist claims on the southern border states. I can't disagree with Friedman on that one. In fact given how popular identity politics is in America already, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends being wrong because such a conflict came much earlier than that. There is no doubt a Balkanized America would give Mexico a very tempting opportunity, in that regard.

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