Generational Dynamics World View News

[Cool Breeze]

** 17-Aug-2021 World View: The mood in South Korea and Taiwan

> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml

> It's from the official mouth piece of the CCP but the above linked
> article shows how the Afghan situation is being interpreted by
> players on the global stage. Also some commentators have noted
> (with naive shock) the "When not If" tone the article takes
> regarding military action to reintegrate Taiwan.

> Today, my manager (I work in Seoul) told me that while watching
> news about the fall of Kabul, she felt that this is what America
> would do to South Korea. That is the mood here now. I can imagine
> the Taiwanese are even more afraid. A few of my co-workers talked
> about this too. They asked me what I thought the Americans would
> do under Biden. I told them I don't know.

> That's the mood here now.

> I wonder if this is what Biden was paid by the Chinese to do? Or
> is this also 4D chess...

It's hard to overestimate the size of the catastrophe unfolding in
Afghanistan, with fallout that will last for years. The catastrophe
was capped off by that ridiculous speech on Monday by the doddering
Bernie, who can barely read a teleprompter.

The stupidity and incompetence of the Biden administration is
enormous.
...

So what does this mean for American defense of South Korea and Taiwan?

It would seem that this would indicate that America would not defend
its allies. But actually, it could have the opposite effect. The
Biden administration will not want to have a second black eye, so they
may actually be more likely than previously to provide a defense.

Biden hid in the Camp David basement for almost a week as the disaster unfolded in Afghanistan. Then they pumped him full of drugs so he could stagger in front of a podium and slur his way through a speech written by his handlers - or Kamala's team, who I think has the biggest hand in affairs. At one point he even went into his cringy whisper-into-the-mic, routine. Of all times....

He took no questions as he slowly walked in a daze toward his handlers (and an ice cream bar) behind a curtain.

The charade they're putting out in front of the world fools a lot of stupid, gullible, and stoned Americans but not the rest of the world. They are making their moves with full knowledge Biden is incompetent, suffering from dementia, and mainly focused on where his next bowl of pudding is coming from.

One catastrophe you didn't mention was the Biden Admin economic policy involving largess and Fed monetization of national debt. This alone may be the crippling blow and end of the US as a superpower. She will no longer be able to drive global foreign policy using greenbacks, or fund its massive military machine.

Along with the Koreans, since Trump started pressuring allies to take more responsibility for their defense, Japan has been in near panic, being uncertain the US will come to her aid when China attacks. Have to wait and see if Biden Admin leaders recognize how serious the implication of our Afghanistan betrayal is. I suspect China will make some tests soon to probe for vulnerabilities.

Burner, what's your timeline under which you believe a world war type scenario will breakout, 50% chance? Two years? Four years? And what's your best guess as to who the main actors will be?

[John]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: North Korea blitzkrieg

> I would assume that a direct invasion (as opposed to a blockade)
> of Taiwan would be blitzkrieg. Accompanied by threats to use nukes
> on targets in Japan and South Korea.

> Could North Korea launch a blitzkrieg of its own on short
> notice?

Yes of course. North Korea, along the DMZ separating it from South
Korea, is bristling with thousands of weapons -- artillery and
missiles -- deployed along the border. They could all reach Seoul,
which is 60 km away.

> BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see more terrorist attacks by
> Muslim Jihad/terrorists. Maybe not as spectacular as September
> 11th, but something comparable to Oklahoma City would be all too
> easy to imagine.

With the southern border of the United States completely open, it's
quite likely that jihadists are entering the country that way, and
preparing terrorist attacks on American soil. But don't worry.
They're not the biggest threat to America. Biden says the biggest
threat to America is Trump supporters.

[Cool Breeze]

With the southern border of the United States completely open, it's
quite likely that jihadists are entering the country that way, and
preparing terrorist attacks on American soil. But don't worry.
They're not the biggest threat to America. Biden says the biggest
threat to America is Trump supporters.

Yes, clown world. Good stuff, lol

John, do you think the Deep State cares at all just how demented and stupid his EOs are, or otherwise? Or do they just laugh because they don't care about much but elitist games, not social chaos (which helps them)?

[John]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: The Deep State

> John, do you think the Deep State cares at all just how demented
> and stupid his EOs [Executive Orders] are, or otherwise? Or do
> they just laugh because they don't care about much but elitist
> games, not social chaos (which helps them)?

The "Deep State" are politicians that depend on support from public
opinion, and public opinion is changing.

There are factions. At the worst extreme are people like Ilhan Omar
and AOC who come from countries that hate America, and every day they
call back to the friends and family they left behind to brag about how
their job is to turn America into a third world country, and how
they're succeeding because the stupid Americans are listening to them

However, there are a lot of people who aren't nearly that extreme, but
have been guided by an emotional hatred of Tea Partiers, Trump, and
Trump supporters. However, these people have been peeled away by one
disaster after another -- crime in the streets, the southern border
disaster, defunding the police, and so forth.

Many of these people are now saying: I really hated Trump's tweets and
what he said, but he knew how to run things, and Biden sounds better
but he's a complete disaster.

The Afghanistan disaster is going to continue for months, perhaps
years.

I remember what happened with the Iran hostage crisis. Every day,
Walter Cronkite would start his newscast at 6:30 pm saying something
like the following: "Good evening! This is day 163 of the Iran
hostage crisis, and this is the news." Half an hour later, he would
say, "And that's the way it was on day 163 of the Iran hostage
crisis."

Yesterday, Joe Biden committed to keeping troops in Afghanistan until
all the Americans are out. Huh? According to different news
reports, there are 10K-50K Americans still in Afghanistan. 5,000 of
them are in Kabul, and maybe they can be pulled out. But thousands
more are in provinces and villages across the country. At any time, a
warlord can say, "We're going to torture and kill this American,
unless you do as we say."

So there won't be a daily comment by Walter Cronkite, but the
"Afghanistan hostage crisis" is likely to be in the news for a long
time, and Biden will be blamed for it. And this will force the "Deep
State" to change.

[Xeraphim1]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: North Korea blitzkrieg

> I would assume that a direct invasion (as opposed to a blockade)
> of Taiwan would be blitzkrieg. Accompanied by threats to use nukes
> on targets in Japan and South Korea.

> Could North Korea launch a blitzkrieg of its own on short
> notice?

Yes of course. North Korea, along the DMZ separating it from South
Korea, is bristling with thousands of weapons -- artillery and
missiles -- deployed along the border. They could all reach Seoul,
which is 60 km away.

Technically North Korea could, but realistically the answer is no. North Korea's military equipment is aging and not well modernized or maintained. It's troops are indifferently trained and are more concerned with getting enough to eat. Fuel is in short supply, even for the army. The only area regularly receiving funds are the nuclear and rocket programs. In the meantime, South Korea has a defense budget around 30x that of North Korea and it's troops are well trained and equipped.

North Korea could probably do some severe damage to Seoul for a couple of days, but after that it most likely would collapse. The purpose of the military in North Korea is to keep the Kim family and its cronies in power. The nuclear program is to keep it from being invaded.

[Cool Breeze]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: The Deep State

> John, do you think the Deep State cares at all just how demented
> and stupid his EOs [Executive Orders] are, or otherwise? Or do
> they just laugh because they don't care about much but elitist
> games, not social chaos (which helps them)?

The "Deep State" are politicians that depend on support from public
opinion, and public opinion is changing.

There are factions. At the worst extreme are people like Ilhan Omar
and AOC who come from countries that hate America, and every day they
call back to the friends and family they left behind to brag about how
their job is to turn America into a third world country, and how
they're succeeding because the stupid Americans are listening to them

However, there are a lot of people who aren't nearly that extreme, but
have been guided by an emotional hatred of Tea Partiers, Trump, and
Trump supporters. However, these people have been peeled away by one
disaster after another -- crime in the streets, the southern border
disaster, defunding the police, and so forth.

Many of these people are now saying: I really hated Trump's tweets and
what he said, but he knew how to run things, and Biden sounds better
but he's a complete disaster.

The Afghanistan disaster is going to continue for months, perhaps
years.

I remember what happened with the Iran hostage crisis. Every day,
Walter Cronkite would start his newscast at 6:30 pm saying something
like the following: "Good evening! This is day 163 of the Iran
hostage crisis, and this is the news." Half an hour later, he would
say, "And that's the way it was on day 163 of the Iran hostage
crisis."

Yesterday, Joe Biden committed to keeping troops in Afghanistan until
all the Americans are out. Huh? According to different news
reports, there are 10K-50K Americans still in Afghanistan. 5,000 of
them are in Kabul, and maybe they can be pulled out. But thousands
more are in provinces and villages across the country. At any time, a
warlord can say, "We're going to torture and kill this American,
unless you do as we say."

So there won't be a daily comment by Walter Cronkite, but the
"Afghanistan hostage crisis" is likely to be in the news for a long
time, and Biden will be blamed for it. And this will force the "Deep
State" to change.

Thanks for that. So for you, the Deep State is a not well coordinated government entity, loosely combining background players and bureacracies. Do you include the intelligence agencies in this - and second question - aren't they the most powerful?

[John]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: Severe damage

> Technically North Korea could, but realistically the answer is
> no. North Korea's military equipment is aging and not well
> modernized or maintained. It's troops are indifferently trained
> and are more concerned with getting enough to eat. Fuel is in
> short supply, even for the army. The only area regularly receiving
> funds are the nuclear and rocket programs. In the meantime, South
> Korea has a defense budget around 30x that of North Korea and it's
> troops are well trained and equipped.

> North Korea could probably do some severe damage to Seoul for a
> couple of days, but after that it most likely would collapse. The
> purpose of the military in North Korea is to keep the Kim family
> and its cronies in power. The nuclear program is to keep it from
> being invaded.

Well ok, but I'm not sure how comforting that news would be to the
citizens of Seoul who have been in this forum in the past and
expressed fear of a North Korean attack. Isn't there an old joke to
be repeated here -- if you're killed by not-well-modernized equipment,
you're just as dead.

[John]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: Factions

> Thanks for that. So for you, the Deep State is a not well
> coordinated government entity, loosely combining background
> players and bureacracies. Do you include the intelligence agencies
> in this - and second question - aren't they the most
> powerful?

We're actually seeing that already. The CIA, DoD and Biden himself
are making conflicting claims about whose fault the debacle is, and
what Biden knew and when he knew it. There's going to be a real
political storm over this catastrophe, especially when Congress gets
involved.

[Jack Edwards]

John said:

We're actually seeing that already. The CIA, DoD and Biden himself
are making conflicting claims about whose fault the debacle is, and
what Biden knew and when he knew it. There's going to be a real
political storm over this catastrophe, especially when Congress gets
involved.

I don't see how this goes away. There are thousands of Americans there, and many many Europeans. Do we think the Taliban doesn't know what kind of leverage that gives them? Do we think that we won't be seeing horrifying images daily for the next several weeks/months...?
The UK parliament held Biden in contempt.. has that ever happened before?
The argument that he was just following Trumps plan is hollow. He had no problems changing every other policy.

I reckon that other nations were insulted by Trump, but they will feel betrayed by Biden. It's a big deal.

And Biden seems utterly and completely incapable of responding to this. Complete denial. And now he's throwing the intel community under the bus...? wow that sure worked out great when Trump tried it.

If the bad news just keeps coming, we will start hearing rumors of what we already know, that he's suffering dementia and the 25th amendment will start getting talked about.

It's too incredible. I wouldn't have believed it if I wasn't seeing it.

[John]

** 19-Aug-2021 World View: Cackling

> If the bad news just keeps coming, we will start hearing rumors of
> what we already know, that he's suffering dementia and the 25th
> amendment will start getting talked about.

> It's too incredible. I wouldn't have believed it if I wasn't
> seeing it.

And unfortunately, the cackling girl may be even worse.