Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

Come on Mr. Trump - visit Taiwan and, while you are there, give it full diplomatic status.

Cool Breeze
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

JJ333 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:49 pm
We stepped onto an old path that still leads to the same place.

1920s/2000s – neoclassical economics, high inequality, high banker pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons (CEOs), reckless bankers, globalisation phase

1929/2008 – Wall Street crash

1930s/2010s – Global recession, currency wars, trade wars, austerity, rising nationalism and extremism

1940s – World war.

We forgot we had been down that path before.



It does get worse, look where we are going.

Savvy post, JJ. I think you are on to something. If John will permit, I shall explain myself even more fully in the next post, because I do enjoy the ideas and posters around here, however he may not understand where I'm coming from.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

John, I chuckled when I saw your response with the heading "Orthodox amusement". The point of my question was to understand where you are coming from, how you think, and what you know. Your answers were revealing. By the way, I'm just amused by how we think we are so important and can predict what is happening (and some can, some do --- but you'll notice they never really get it right twice = mostly lucky) and then go on and on about how or why it didn't happen. Having said that, I am actually in your camp (can't you tell?) in many ways, including the fact that the world is changing dramatically and mostly for the worst, especially if you grew up believing that the US Constitution actually mattered or that the government in its foundation wasn't really corrupt (most didn't realize this until all of the soft coups coming after President Trump and the manner in which they are attempted). Let's check back on a few of your comments:

You said
I'm glad that we're amusing you. I'll try to throw in some
additional jokes here and there, to add to the entertainment.

But hey, I guess you're right. There'll never be another war, and the
stock market will go up forever. I guess I'd better shut down the
site.
I addressed this above. Predicting is hard. I love guys that try to do it though, most pussies in the modern day won't even try, so those that do actually earn a great deal of respect from me. My point remains that things coming are hard to see set off and usually we keep predicting into the wind though years go by with zero happening. I'm willing to be general or have a framework ... do you all here also believe that the war is by 2025? or more like by 2030?
All religions have characteristics in common -- they provide a
framework for day to day living, they provide comfort and guidance in
difficult times, and so forth.

Furthermore, there are a few major religions in the world, and dozens
of minor religions, and they largely contradict each other in
important ways. This is a simple observation, and it has the
following logical consequence: There is at most one true religion.
Of course you are right, but the first part is a materialist (atheist) argument. It is true, but only a small part of the story, not all that there is by any means. As for the second part, you are again logical and correct, Socrates employed the same logic in understanding that there can be only one true God.
What is truth? ... And what is virtue?
These questions show us why the USA has been declining, they are painstakingly too common. They are evidence that people have lost the foundation on which we build civilizations and find meaning in life. In the case of all of us of advanced civilizations and heritage, Christianity.
There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A believer
can always find a way within the religion to justify any action.
I think more accurately stated, [some] people use religious impulses to do and justify anything. Some religions (Islam) do have histories of violence and justification of it (they teach it as a matter of fact, dogma) and others do not (I can name several here). But the modern mind has lost its mind mostly (see above on the loss of Christianity), thus it cannot discern truth very well, or even understand logic when it should be easy to utilize or implement. This discernment is lost in the conflation or confusion of people claiming to be heritage X or religion Y and committing acts that may or may not belong to the religion or ideology associated with it. Generally leftist people with identity politics are the ultimate abusers of this but, sadly, many other lazy thinkers have been fooled by them. This should be obvious to anyone, but we don't confuse such things (I think because we don't like telling people they are full of sh*t if they claim to be a religion but it doesn't inform their life or actions) if we talk about people's secular deeds or qualifications: for example, if a guy says he is a doctor or professional power washer but doesn't know or do anything related to these fields, clearly he is FOS. We tend never to question that in the religious realm, because we now have a feminized way of thinking and identity aspect to it that makes it somehow personal in ways that it isn't, at times. That is, it is both objective and personal all at the same time --- but for some reason calling someone FOS for claiming to be a christian while never going to church, not knowing anything about Christ or the gospel, or behaving in a way even honest about attempting to incorporate it into his life --- somehow ruffles the feathers of others who are not mature people. I'm just giving example of clarity here so others can understand that we must all be careful in analyzing EVERYTHING in life, there is much laziness with language, critical thinking, and generally what one takes for granted these days, that just isn't so.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I don't mean to divert attention from the present convo, but...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/ ... eat-reset/

Why is no one even trying to talk about this? What you see when you click that link and drop into the rabbit hole that is the plan to "reset" the world economy is pure globalist (and for those of faith, Satanist) evil.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Brexit and BRI in Europe
DaKardii wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:21 pm
> John, how do you think Brexit will affect the WWIII alignments in
> Europe?

> I personally believe that Germany and the UK will be on opposing
> sides, and France could go either way.

> Since the end of the Franco-Prussian war in 1871, France and the
> UK have worked closely together to prevent a unified Germany from
> dominating the European continent. This common goal was the
> central reason why they were allies in both World Wars, despite
> being historic enemies. It was also the central reason why they
> both opposed German re-unification in 1990, despite the US
> supporting it. Since 1990, they have been trying to accommodate
> Germany while also serving as soft counterbalances against it.

> However, France hasn't always been so committed to
> counterbalancing Germany. Many French sympathize with Germany
> because they would prefer Europe to be dominated by a continental
> power (such as France and Germany), as opposed to a
> non-continental power (such as Russia, the UK, and the US). This
> sentiment may have been the central reason why many French
> willingly collaborated with Germany during WWII, and it was
> definitely the central reason why France was initially strongly
> opposed to the UK joining the EU in the first place.

> With Brexit completed, tensions are starting to rise between the
> EU and the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements. These
> disagreements have the potential to escalate into territorial
> disputes between the UK and the EU members bordering it,
> especially Ireland. Should that happen, Germany could use these
> disputes as a pretext to promote both further European integration
> and the creation of a "European Army" that would effectively serve
> as a way around the post-WWII restrictions on German
> rearmament. Because both the UK and most of Western Europe are in
> a crisis era, odds are such escalations will indeed occur.

> At this point, France will face a serious dilemma. On one hand, it
> supports further European integration and the formation of a
> "European Army" just as much, if not more than Germany does. But
> on the other hand, such developments would significantly increase
> the stakes of a future unbalancing of the current continental
> co-hegemony existing between the two countries. France probably
> recalls that the last time Germany was forced to share hegemony
> with another continental power (Austria) in a confederate union
> (the German Confederation), the unbalancing of that co-hegemony
> led to war. Germany decisively won that war within six weeks, and
> Austria's loss of that war caused it to undergo a slow decline
> that led to the complete collapse of its empire within three
> generations. France obviously does not want to meet the same fate
> as Austria. So, what does it do in this situation?
This is a very sophisticated analysis of European politics.

My personal view for some time has been that there will be a "hard
Brexit," and although that seemed unlikely only few months ago, it
seems almost inevitable today. Still, I don't see a hard Brexit as
leading to a European war, although your suggestion that it could
result in border wars seems plausible.

Still, I'd have to wait and see how likely it is that disputes over
Northern Ireland tariffs or English Channel fishing grounds would lead
to full-scale war. If the neo-Nazis won control of Germany's
government then my opinion might change, but right now, sitting here
in Boston and watching Europe from a distance, I don't see enough
animus to escalate into a full war, as happened when the Nazis came to
power in the 1930s.

I believe that there's a big piece missing from your analysis, a
piece much more important than Brexit. That piece would be
China's activities in using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
to split European countries from each other.

For example, here's an interesting article from Chinese Communist
state media describing how the BRI is saving Europe from the
coronavirus:

*** Spotlight: China-Europe anti-pandemic ties set stage for economic recovery (8-Sep-2020)
*** http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 351185.htm

This article lists several European countries where BRI is playing "a
critical role in the continent's combat against the COVID-19
pandemic." Another example is China's majority investment in Greece's
strategic Piraeus port.

As usual, China is buying loyalty with BRI, but it remains to be seen
how deep that loyalty goes, when each individual country has to make
existential decisions related to war.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Following the old path
JJ333 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:49 pm
> We stepped onto an old path that still leads to the same place.

> 1920s/2000s – neoclassical economics, high inequality, high banker
> pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons
> (CEOs), reckless bankers, globalisation phase

> 1929/2008 – Wall Street crash

> 1930s/2010s – Global recession, currency wars, trade wars,
> austerity, rising nationalism and extremism

> 1940s – World war.

> We forgot we had been down that path before.

> It does get worse, look where we are going.
This is a summary of some of the generational factors in going from
WW II to WW III.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Trend lines
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:13 pm
> John, I chuckled when I saw your response with the heading
> "Orthodox amusement". The point of my question was to understand
> where you are coming from, how you think, and what you know. Your
> answers were revealing. By the way, I'm just amused by how we
> think we are so important and can predict what is happening (and
> some can, some do --- but you'll notice they never really get it
> right twice = mostly lucky) and then go on and on about how or why
> it didn't happen. Having said that, I am actually in your camp
> (can't you tell?) in many ways, including the fact that the world
> is changing dramatically and mostly for the worst, especially if
> you grew up believing that the US Constitution actually mattered
> or that the government in its foundation wasn't really corrupt
> (most didn't realize this until all of the soft coups coming after
> President Trump and the manner in which they are
> attempted).
I totally disagree with this. I've posted over 6,000 articles
containing thousands of Generational Dynamics predictions about
hundreds of countries and regions, and not only have I "gotten it
right twice," I've gotten it right every time (except for a couple of
times in the early days when I mistakenly made some timing
predictions).

Let's take an example. In 2004 I predicted a stock market crash
and financial crisis similar to 1929. Now you can say that never
happened, and that's true so far, but there was another part to
that prediction. It was that public debt would continue to increase
unsustainably until a crash occurred. For the prediction to be
wrong, it would require that public debt level off and fall, and
that hasn't happened.

The prediction is really about the trend line. Once that's been
established then you can apply the following rule:

> If something can't go forever, then it won't.

Generational Dynamics can't predict the precise time that the crash
will occur, but can predict the unsustainable trend line and the fact
that a crash must occur some time. You might say that the prediction
in that form is useless, and maybe it is for you. But for an
investor, it means don't plan on buying some stocks and just holding
onto them for 20 years. You have to remain alert and be prepared to
sell at a moment's notice, or else lose everything you own, as
happened to many people after the 1929 crash.

Let's take another example. In 2005 I started predicting war with
China. I was ridiculed for that prediction, as I was for the stock
market prediction, but the trend line is clear. Today one can look
back and see a trend line of increasing belligerence, hostility,
nationalism, and xenophobia. The Generational Dynamics prediction is
that all these trends will continue to increase unsustainably, and
that you can apply "If something can't go on forever, then it won't,"
and conclude that there will be a war at some time in the future.

Once again, that prediction may be useless to you, since it doesn't
give a starting date for the war. But to others it might mean moving
one's family or business out of China, rather than counting on China
becoming more peaceful and less insane.
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:13 pm
> I addressed this above. Predicting is hard. I love guys that try
> to do it though, most pussies in the modern day won't even try, so
> those that do actually earn a great deal of respect from me. My
> point remains that things coming are hard to see set off and
> usually we keep predicting into the wind though years go by with
> zero happening. I'm willing to be general or have a framework
> ... do you all here also believe that the war is by 2025? or more
> like by 2030?
Generational Dynamics cannot predict a date for the start of war.
However, human analysts can estimate a start date. I often refer to
such events as "chaotic events," since they're triggered by random
events like politics or the weather. (This alludes to the Chaos
Theory concept that a butterfly flapping its wings in China can cause
a chain reaction that leads to a hurricane in America.)

I have made predictions about chaotic events, but I always try to
remember to couch such predictions in phrases like "in my opinion" or
"my expectation." However, these predictions of chaotic events are
not just pure guesswork. I'm always guided by Generational Dynamics
trend predictions, and the result has been that my predictions of
chaotic events have been almost 100% accurate. I don't believe that
there's any journalist, analyst, politician or web site in the world
with a better record of accurate predictions than my web site.

So when will war with China begin? It's a chaotic event, so a random
event may trigger it. For example, a butterfly may flap its wings
somewhere, causing a typhoon in the South China Sea that leads to an
unexpected clash between a Chinese cruiser and Vietnamese fishing
boat, leading to a larger clash, then a regional war, then a world
war. There are a million scenarios that can lead to world war. Go
back and read my descriptions of how World War II started -- because a
Japanese soldier unexpectedly had to pee, got lost in the woods,
leading to the Marco Polo Bridge incident, which led to the Rape of
Nanking and full scale war. There's no way to predict stuff like
that, just as I can't tell you whether America's deficit will go to
$25 trillion, $30 trillion or $50 trillion before a crash occurs. All
I can tell you is the nature of the unsustainable trend.

As for when war with China will begin, I'll just say what I've said in
the past: It might begin tomorrow, next week, next month, next year,
or after that. An exact date cannot be predicted.
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:13 pm
> Of course you are right, but the first part is a materialist
> (atheist) argument. It is true, but only a small part of the
> story, not all that there is by any means. As for the second part,
> you are again logical and correct, Socrates employed the same
> logic in understanding that there can be only one true
> God.
It's not clear to me why you characterize an argument as "materialist"
or Socratecian and use that to conclude that the argument is wrong.
Isn't that a pretty common error in logic?
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:13 pm
> "What is truth? ... And what is virtue?"

> These questions show us why the USA has been declining, they are
> painstakingly too common. They are evidence that people have lost
> the foundation on which we build civilizations and find meaning in
> life. In the case of all of us of advanced civilizations and
> heritage, Christianity.
I respect your deeply held Christian beliefs, but I'm a lot more
cynical than that, and history backs me up.

Let's take the question of genocide. In the last century, we had the
Armenian genocide (Muslims killing Christians), the Ukrainian genocide
(Christians killing Christians), the Great Leap Forward (Confucians
killing Confucians), the Nazi genocide (Christians killing Jews, then
Christians), the Cambodian genocide (Buddhists killing Buddhists),
Loatian Hmong genocide (Buddhists killing Christians), the Srebrenica
genocide (Christians killing Muslims), Zimbabwe's Operation
Gukurahundi (Christians killing Christians), the Rwanda genocide
(Christians killing Christians), the Syrian genocide (Muslims killing
Muslims), and so forth.

So every devout believer of any religion claims that his religion is
the best, but no one has ever shown me any evidence to contradict the
observation that people of every religion commit beatings, atrocities,
rapes, torture, massacres, genocide or ethnic cleansing of people of
other religions just the same as everyone else. These things are part
of the human DNA just as much as sex is -- and indeed they have to be
for the human race to have survived -- and any religion denying them
is just talking, and ignoring what is obvious.
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:13 pm
> "There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A
> believer can always find a way within the religion to justify any
> action."

> I think more accurately stated, [some] people use religious
> impulses to do and justify anything. Some religions (Islam) do
> have histories of violence and justification of it (they teach it
> as a matter of fact, dogma) and others do not (I can name several
> here).
There is no difference in this regard between Islam and other
religions. I wrote about this in detail in my book on the history of
Iran, which also contains a history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.
It you'd like to actually understand Islam, rather than the media
nonsense about Islam, then I suggest that you become one of the few
people to read my book:

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supre ... 732738610/

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: The 'Great Reset'
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:04 pm
> I don't mean to divert attention from the present convo, but...
> https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/ ... eat-reset/

> Why is no one even trying to talk about this? What you see when
> you click that link and drop into the rabbit hole that is the plan
> to "reset" the world economy is pure globalist (and for those of
> faith, Satanist) evil.
This book is the usual fatuous mainstream media nonsense. For
example, based on the description, the predictions do not include war
with China. If you want something to worry about, then worry about
that.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:44 pm
** 19-Sep-2020 World View: The 'Great Reset'
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:04 pm
> I don't mean to divert attention from the present convo, but...
> https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/ ... eat-reset/

> Why is no one even trying to talk about this? What you see when
> you click that link and drop into the rabbit hole that is the plan
> to "reset" the world economy is pure globalist (and for those of
> faith, Satanist) evil.
This book is the usual fatuous mainstream media nonsense. For
example, based on the description, the predictions do not include war
with China. If you want something to worry about, then worry about
that.
I can't see how anyone can ignore China. I wouldn't be surprised if Asia was at war by Christmas. Things are going nuts over here.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

What do you mean by "going nuts"?

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