Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Saw a special on Fox News yesterday that sounded like someone working for the network read your website. They made many of the same points you have, about China's coverup and their humiliation over being the only country in the world to suffer economically. First time I've seen it outside Generational Dynamics.

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JCP »

Trevor wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 2:55 pm
Saw a special on Fox News yesterday that sounded like someone working for the network read your website. They made many of the same points you have, about China's coverup and their humiliation over being the only country in the world to suffer economically. First time I've seen it outside Generational Dynamics.
I think the situation is becoming obvious to almost everyone except for the people running CNN.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Who needs a job when you got MMT?

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 12-May-2020 World View: List of crisis wars
Bob Butler 54 wrote: > Do you have a list of recent crisis wars, say in the post World
> War II time frame? What, exactly, defines a crisis war?

> Say, for example, was Bush 43’s Iraq conflict an existential war
> for Iraq but not for the United States? As it turned out the
> Baath party’s control ceased to exist, but the United States
> didn’t, was not really in play. Still, the alliance of the
> Republican Party, big oil and the aggressive believers in US
> military dominance took a big hit. Can changes in perception or
> influence of the dominant party count as existential? Can you
> count what happened to the Baath and Republican parties as
> different?

> Even World War II did not end the existence of Germany, Italy and
> Japan. They are all three still on the map. However, their
> cultures endured a significant forced change. They had to accept
> the Enlightenment virtues as expanded. (Human rights, equality,
> democracy.) So did the slaveowners after the US Civil War. All
> the formerly Confederate states still exist. I have a feeling
> that the possibility of rebooting a culture and then letting the
> resulting state go does not effect World War II's and the US Civil
> War status as crisis wars.

> Just looking at Wiki’s list of recent wars and seeing how many
> would count as crisis wars. How do you define a crisis war?

> Anyone else have an opinion?
I've probably written several million words on the differences between
crisis and non-crisis wars, and I won't attempt to repeat that here.
However, "rebooting the culture" would not be uncommon during the
Recovery Era following a crisis war, particular within the nation or
society that lost the war. A generational crisis war is extremely
horrific and traumatizing to all sides, and typically the population
becomes anxious and desperate to make sure that it never happens
again, and some sort of "rebooting" would not be unusual.

I get asked a lot of questions, and I try to answer all of them, based
on three conditions: I have to have the time, it has to be an
interesting subject, and I have to be in the mood. If those conditions
aren't met, then I usually ask the questioner to do his own research.
This has actually worked out very well, as a number of people have
done their own research, and contributed to the development of
Generational Dynamics.

In a previous message, you said you would like to compare generational
patterns in the industrial age vs the information age vs other ages.
This is a huge project that would take 3-6 months to do properly,
which is not time that I have. If you're really interested in
this subject, I would encourage you to do your own research.
I would caution you that you would probably have to access 50-100
sources, and it would take you a couple of months just to collect
those sources and begin writing narratives.

With regard to the Iraq war, this was discussed for years in the
old Fourth Turning forum. The summary is that the Iran/Iraq war
was a generational crisis war for both Iran and Iraq. America's
Gulf War was a Recovery Era war for Iraq, and the Iraq war was
an Awakening era war for Iraq.

The following article from April 2007 was the best article:

** Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 070401.htm



As for a list of crisis wars since WW II, I probably should try to
work up the energy to provide a comprehensive list, and who knows
maybe I will. In the meantime, I went through my files and prepared a
list of countries where I've written about their last generational
crisis war. Keep in mind that there are almost 200 countries, so this
would be a huge project. The following is the quick list that I came
up with, and I provided a link to an article where I discussed the
war, sometimes only briefly:

Kenya -- Mau-Mau rebellion - 1956
** 4-Feb-18 World View -- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180204



Bolivia - civil war ends in 1967
** 15-Nov-19 World View -- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191115



Iran/Iraq war - Great Islamic Revolution -- 1979-88
** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191103



Cambodian "Killing Fields" genocide, 1975-79 - Cambodia and Thailand
** 17-Jan-19 World View -- Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens to kill opposition politicians if EU ends preferences
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190117


** 30-Oct-18 World View -- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181030



South Sudan war of independence - climaxed in 1991
** 9-Dec-18 World View -- Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181209



Colombia and Venezuela - "La Violencia," or the Colombian Revolt, 1948-1959.
** 12-Aug-18 World View -- Colombia's president Ivan Duque takes office amidst accusations from Venezuela
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180812



Armenian Azerbaijan 1989-94
** 18-Apr-18 World View -- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180418



Yemen civil war 1962-68
** 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180129



Rhodesia civil war - Zimbabwe - 1979
** 30-Jul-18 World View -- Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180730



Afghanistan civil war -- 1991-96
** 25-Jul-17 World View -- Massive Kabul bombing on Monday leaves US Afghan policy in tatters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170725



Democratic Republic of Congo - Kasai region - 1960
** 21-Jun-17 World View -- Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170621



Algeria's war of independence from France (1954-62)
** 30-May-17 World View -- Arrest of Berber activist in Morocco raises Berber-Arab tensions
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170530



Cameroon - UPC Revolt - 1956-1960
** 15-Feb-17 World View -- Cameroon shuts down internet for English-speakers protesting French-speakers
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170215



Ethiopia - Eritria - 1991
** 14-Jun-16 World View -- Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160614



Pakistan - india - Partition war - 1947
** 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170815



Bangladesh - East Pakistan - East India - 1971
** 12-Jun-16 World View -- Bangladesh government arrests 3,192 people to stop terrorist killings
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160612



Rwanda - Burundi - 1994
** 30-Apr-15 World View -- 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150430



Sri Lanka civil war - 2009
** Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e090517



Cuba - 1960
** 14-Dec-18 World View -- Cuba eases economic restrictions, continuing on path from Socialism to free markets
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181214

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

China is thus a greater rival than the USSR of Stalin and Khrushchev and Brezhnev, but the U.S. is not today the nation of Ronald Reagan, with its surging economy and ideological conviction we would one day see the ideology of Marx and Lenin buried.

Three decades of post-Cold War foolish and failed democracy-crusading have left this generation not with the conviction and certitude of Cold War America, but with ashes in their mouths and no stomach to spend blood and treasure converting China to our way of life.

Pat Buchanan
May 12, 2020

https://buchanan.org/blog/coexistence-w ... -ii-138549

shoshin
Posts: 211
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 4:05 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by shoshin »

John, interesting essay....”cliodynamics” sounds a lot like GD...

https://aeon.co/essays/if-history-was-m ... =atom-feed

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

As a South Texas Hispanic of Mestizo background I think you may have glossed over what was the fastest growing minority's attitude really is...

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 14-May-2020 World View: War between China and Japan

When you're talking about almost 200 countries, you can expect crisis
wars to be occurring somewhere at any point in time. There are
typically 15-20 wars going on in the world at any given time (not all
crisis wars, of course). However, I recall that in 2004, there was a
study by some Swedish academy that the number of wars at that time was
the lowest on record. That would be the end of the Unraveling era,
when wars were suppressed.

Over the centuries, as transportation, communication and weaponry
improve, nations, societies, and identity groups tend to grow, with
the result that crisis wars tend to merge into clusters. For
convenience, I've referred to two different clusters that I call the
WW I timeline and WW II timeline. Most of the nuclear powers (US,
Britain, France, India, Pakistan, China) were on the WW II timeline.
Russia was on the WW I timeline, with the Bolshevik revolution.

A lot of other countries were on the WW II timeline. Just to pick
some at random, you have South Africa, Egypt, Korea, and Australia.

A lot of countries were on the WW I timeline, particularly in the
Mideast with the collapse of the Ottoman empire. WW I was early
enough in the century that some countries have had two crisis wars in
the last century. Iran, Syria are examples. Others have been delayed
into a Fifth Turning, such as Mexico, Tunisia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
and Russia. These Fifth Turning countries are all very interesting
examples to study.

As I said, crisis war clusters tend to merge over the centuries, and
what we're looking at today with WW III is a final merging of the WW I
and WW II timelines.

We can look at the big picture without referring to generational
theory, as I've said before. There were two world wars in the last
century, plus massive additional wars in Asia, the Mideast, Africa,
and pretty much in every region of the world. Furthermore, there have
been massive wars in every continent, in every nation, in every region
of the world in every century for millennia. There is absolutely no
reason why this century should be any different, and several reasons
why this century should be worse.

This leads to the question of how crisis wars start and, in
particular, if the existence of nuclear weapons makes crisis wars less
likely. I've thought a lot about these questions and looked at many
examples, and I haven't been able to find any evidence that nuclear
weapons will make any difference at all.

Let's start with examples of some American non-crisis wars. The
Vietnam war evolved slowly from advisors to heavier involvement after
the Gulf of Tonkin resolution. The Gulf war occurred after months of
debate following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The Iraq war began
after years of political haranguing over Iraq's WMDs. The point is
that none of these were rash decisions. These occurred only after
lengthy debate and consideration.

A recent example that I've pointed to often because it's so incredibly
fascinating and almost unbelievable is the 2006 war between Israel and
Hezbollah in Lebanon. On July 12, 2006, some members of the Hezbollah
militia in Lebanon crossed the border and abducted two Israeli
soldiers.

Israel's government went into a state of total panic. Israel's Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert called this "an act of war," and within a few
hours, Israel was mobilized for war. Israel launched the war with no
plan and no objective. Each day, Israel lurched from one plan and
objective to the next, as the previous one failed. In the end, the
war was a disaster for both Israel and Lebanon, and accomplished
nothing except the destruction of a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure.
The war fizzled quickly because Lebanon and Hezbollah were in a
generational Awakening era.

It's really a remarkable example. On July 11, 2006, there was no
thought of war. On July 13, 2006, they were at war. The abduction of
Israeli soldiers was apparently a random act by some Hezbollah
fighters, but that random act on July 12, 2006, was all it took to
trigger a war that might have spiraled into much bigger war, if
Lebanon had been in a highly xenophobic and nationalistic Crisis era.

So my view is that crisis wars start from exactly this kind of random
act. If the participants are in a crisis era, with populations in
highly xenophobic and nationalistic moods, then a random act can
quickly spiral into a larger and larger war, with no planning. World
War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke, and it led to the collapse of the Russian and Ottoman
empires.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor. It didn't
even begin with the Nazi invasion of Poland.

World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident.
I've written about this a number of times, but here's a summary.

The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and
was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th
century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational
Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each
other. On July 7, A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near
the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The
Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in
the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash
was won by the Japanese. The two sides negotiated a settlement, but
both sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was
full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly
thereafter.

And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier
missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his
way back. So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered
because someone unexpectedly had to pee.

One of the major motivations that Japan had in bombing Pearl Harbor
was that the US, while officially neutral, was clearly supporting
China in the Japan-China war, and the purpose of bombing Pearl
Harbor was not to make the US a Japanese colony, but rather
to prevent the US from supporting China.

Today the situation is similar to WW II, with the roles of China and
Japan reversed. I didn't call my book "War between China and the US,"
since that's not the major objective of China. I called it "War
between China and Japan." Once again, the Chinese and Japanese people
are highly xenophobic and nationalistic. Once again, the Chinese and
Japanese people really hate each other. The Chinese want revenge for
WW II -- for Japan's invasion of China, for the comfort women, for the
Rape of Nanking, and for the horrific chemical and biological warfare
atrocities committed on Chinese people by Japan's Unit 731. But this
time, the US will be supporting Japan against China, even though the
US may be officially neutral at first.

There are extremely powerful emotions involved here. Most of these
emotions are exhibited by young people who are indifferent to the
catastrophic consequences of a war, in the same way that young people
in the US support Sanders and are completely indifferent to the
catastrophic consequences of his policies.

So, would these extremely powerful emotions between Chinese and
Japanese people be affected by the fact that China and the US are
nuclear powers? I just don't see how. There could be a trivial
incident today, tomorrow or the next day, with a small clash between
China and Japan that spirals into a war because of the massive
nationalism and xenophobia on both sides. Nuclear weapons would have
nothing to do with it.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 8:25 am
** 05-May-2020 World View: Attachments
DaKardii wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 3:38 pm
> Hey, John. Can you please increase the attachment quota? I want to
> create a new topic that involves an "alliances map" which I
> created, and I can't upload the file unless the quota is
> increased. Thanks, DaKardii
Navigator made a similar request, and I've been trying to figure out
what's going on. The administrative screens that handle Phpbb
attachments are pretty complicated, with multiple options and
controls, but as far as I could figure out, attachments were already
enabled, so I didn't understand why they didn't work.

But I finally figured out what the problem is. During the period
2012-2016, thousands of attachment files were uploaded to this forum,
and all the disk space allocated for attachment files was used up. So
I'm reluctant to do anything further with attachments until I figure
out what's going with those thousands of existing attachment files.

In the meantime, there are several free services that allow you to
upload an image, and then reference the image with a url that you can
use with the [img] tag.

Higgenbotham posts many such images in the Financial Topics thread.
He uses imgbb at:

https://imgbb.com/

Higgie has been posting a lot of images every day in the Financial
Topics thread, so I assume that this is working pretty well. Give it
a try, and let me know if it's working.

Besides imgbb.com, a similar service is imgur.com . Both services are
described as free services, not even requiring registration.
Thanks. Just created a new topic.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 14-May-2020 World View: Graphics
DaKardii wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 4:45 pm
> Thanks. Just created a new topic.
Your post contains the link

https://ibb.co/qRhWHV8

If you go to that page and right click on the graphic,
then you can get the image location, which is

https://i.ibb.co/dQXLNxv/Allies-vs-Axis.png

Then you can insert the actual graphic into your post:

Code: Select all

[img]https://i.ibb.co/dQXLNxv/Allies-vs-Axis.png[/img]
Image

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