Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 04-May-2020 World View: Generational Dynamics predictions

> John, while your track record has been far superior to any other
> news source and analyst, which is why I read this site to find out
> what's going on in the world, it isn't perfect. Perhaps one of the
> biggest mistakes was anticipating the Clash of Civilizations to
> happen long before now.
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 110828.htm

> There are times I'm amazed it hasn't broken out yet, but we're in
> the 2020s and it's still yet to occur. I think we're going to have
> to crash economically first before that happens, as we'll have
> millions of young men who have nothing to lose by going to
> war. China in particular will have tens of millions with no job
> prospects and no marriage prospects.

> The second is expecting Ebola to become a massive pandemic.
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140918
> Even with the nightmare scenario of it penetrating a war zone, it
> hasn't spread far, since it's not very transmissible. At least so
> far, I haven't seen any indication of it mutating into a more
> contagious disease.

The two examples you gave are not Generational Dynamics predictions
or forecasts. They're personal opinions. Just because I'm posting
Generational Dynamics analyses doesn't mean that I'm not allowed to
have personal opinions, just like you and everyone else.

When I give a personal opinion, I don't just leave it as some sort of
left-wing or right-wing ideology, but I always give the analytical
reasons how I arrived at that opinion. Readers are welcome to accept
or reject the analysis, or to do their own analysis of the reasons I
gave.

In the first article you mention, I wrote:

> "I've been following this issue closely for years, and
> there is absolutely no question in my mind that the Chinese WILL
> launch a preemptive attack to acquire Taiwan at some point. This
> is a highly nationalistic issue for the Chinese, and they will not
> be deterred. It could happen at any time, but based on the
> Pentagon report, the next 12-18 months seems pretty
> likely."

That was by no means a firm prediction, and I have no idea why you
interpreted it as one. In that article, I also stated the opinion
that the US would not abandon Taiwan. The timing of a Chinese attack
and the decision to defend Taiwan are political decisions and chaotic
events (in the sense of Chaos Theory), and cannot be predicted by
Generational Dynamics, any more than election results can be
predicted. But I am allowed to have an opinion about them.

In your second example, I listed the expert opinions on the spread of
Ebola and I concluded that Ebola would spread into a pandemic. That
article was a lengthy explanation of how I reached that conclusion,
but it was not a Generational Dynamics prediction. Once again, I
don't see how you could have interpreted it otherwise.

Here are some more opinions:

• The Covid-19 pandemic will be much worse than anyone
  is saying, and will be as bad as the 1917-19 Spanish Flu pandemic.
• There will be a huge "second wave" in the fall.
• The only thing that will stop the pandemic will be the development
  and population deployment of a miracle drug -- a vaccine or a cure.
  The experts don't expect anything like that for a long time, in
  mid-2021 at the earliest.

Once again, these are my opinions, and are not Generational Dynamics
predictions. Since my Ebola opinion was wrong, you should take that
into account as to whether you believe these opinions.

I have to add an explanation of why I gave 1917-19 above as the dates
of the Spanish Flu pandemic. I've noticed that Donald Trump has been
for weeks giving 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu pandemic, and I
was repeatedly annoyed that he was making a mistake giving the wrong
date, but apparently nobody on his staff was correcting him.

Then I connected the dots to an article that I wrote a few weeks ago:

*** 15-Apr-2020 World View: 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic may have originated in China
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=51549#p51549

That article references a 2014 National Geographic article that says
that the Spanish Flu actually originated in China in November 1917.
So by repeatedly mentioning 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu
pandemic, Trump is making the point that even the Spanish Flu pandemic
began in China.

I've noticed in the last two or three weeks that Trump is visibly
furious at the CCP and Xi Jinping for purposely inflicting the Wuhan
Coronavirus on over 180 countries of the world. This is part of a
significant change in US-China relations (and indeed China's relations
with the entire world) that pushes the world closer and closer to a
world war. (But that's an opinion.)

[Jeepdinger]

While we're on the topic of Covid, lack of treatments, second waves and such. I wanted to share these articles I came across. The media narrative has definitely gone in different directions than these, but hopefully it will circle back around as the economy starts to open back up.

https://onenewsnow.com/perspectives/bry ... ded-to-die

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

[Guest]

What kind of numbers would a second wave mean for America? We already have around 70,000 dead.

[John]

** 05-May-2020 World View: Attachments

> Hey, John. Can you please increase the attachment quota? I want to
> create a new topic that involves an "alliances map" which I
> created, and I can't upload the file unless the quota is
> increased. Thanks, DaKardii

Navigator made a similar request, and I've been trying to figure out
what's going on. The administrative screens that handle Phpbb
attachments are pretty complicated, with multiple options and
controls, but as far as I could figure out, attachments were already
enabled, so I didn't understand why they didn't work.

But I finally figured out what the problem is. During the period
2012-2016, thousands of attachment files were uploaded to this forum,
and all the disk space allocated for attachment files was used up. So
I'm reluctant to do anything further with attachments until I figure
out what's going with those thousands of existing attachment files.

In the meantime, there are several free services that allow you to
upload an image, and then reference the image with a url that you can
use with the [img] tag.

Higgenbotham posts many such images in the Financial Topics thread.
He uses imgbb at:

https://imgbb.com/

Higgie has been posting a lot of images every day in the Financial
Topics thread, so I assume that this is working pretty well. Give it
a try, and let me know if it's working.

Besides imgbb.com, a similar service is imgur.com . Both services are
described as free services, not even requiring registration.

[Guest]

What kind of numbers would a second wave mean for America? We already have around 70,000 dead.

There won't be a second wave. Only complete financial ruination.

[John]

** 05-May-2020 World View: South Korea baseball

South Korea is resuming league baseball games. Loud cheering
fans will fill the spectator stands.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

[Guest]

The truth is emerging, a biological warfare research product...

Gone astray....no socioeconomic class, no ethnicity, no political establishment will be spared the onslaught...

[gfmucci1]

John's stated options:

A bioweapon developed by the Wuhan Institute Of Virology. This is rejected by almost everyone.
A naturally occurring virus under study at the Wuhan Institute Of Virology that escaped.
A naturally occurring virus that spread spontaneously in Wuhan's wet markets.

One more:

A naturally occurring virus genetically modified to increase its ease of infection and its virulence/transmissibility, i.e "gain of function" modifications.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285579/

[Navigator]

Here is a good article on the 1957 Asian flu pandemic that now seems rather similar to what we have experienced so far

https://www.aier.org/article/elvis-was- ... -pandemic/

Note the complete lack of panic. Of course this was in a time when people knew from experience that you could die young (war, other pandemics, esp. Polio).

Based on the Diamond Princess experience, my estimate was 300K deaths in USA. I think we are still on track for that. Note that it means 1 death per 1000 in USA. Still significant, but definitely not worth destroying the economy.

Our culture regarding death has changed since 1957. Society, and especially the medical community, have come to believe that EVERYTHING must be done to prevent death, regardless of the consequences.

We are all going to die, its just a matter of time. We cannot afford the economic devastation that our current courses of action are going to bring. In the end, the consequences of these actions are going to kill FAR more than 300K people. The number one root cause of premature death in the world is POVERTY.

[tim]

John,

I bought your Generational Dynamics book from Amazon.

I was expecting just a printed copy of the book you had on the website (which I am very familiar with) but was surprised to see all the added content. I really enjoyed the way you applied Generational Dynamics to the time of Jesus Christ and the Ancient Greeks.

The parts on economic bubbles are great too. Reading about the bubbles of the past and looking at the stock market today makes me laugh and shake my head.

I am happy to have a physical copy of your book. I don't have a positive outlook on the future with the coming crisis and it would be a shame for your work to be lost because it only existed digitally.

To anyone out there reading this: buy this book even if you're familiar with John's work. Its worth the $15.