Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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is the corona virus a Chinese bio-weapon? If it is, then wouldn't it be an act of war?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Apr-2020 World View: The number of US deaths from Covid-19

New York state governor Andrew Cuomo has just been giving his daily
coronavirus news briefing.

He was giving the number of infections and the number of deaths, and
as usual in such situations when politicians have to use a little
elementary school arithmetic, he was completely confused. As I've
pointed out many, many times, many politicians and journalists cannot
do math at even the 2nd grade level.

So he referred to Trump's task force figures for deaths in the US,
based on models developed by the experts Anthony Fauci and Deborah
Birx. The task force estimated two million deaths if the economy had
not been shut down (i.e., no mitigation steps or lockdowns). They
estimate 200-400K deaths with mitigation. And the task force hopes to
bring it down to 60K deaths in the US if the public continues to honor
"social separation" guidelines.

Cuomo also referenced figures from the CDC model that 160 million
people will be infected. Cuomo ridiculed that figure.

So the first problem is that the 60K deaths figure is up to August of
this year, while the 160 million figure covers a two year period, so
the two figures are not comparable. This is a common mistake that
politicians and pundits make, completely confusing everyone by not
comparing equalivalent time periods, equivalent regions, or equivalent
mitigation enforcement.

There have already been almost 20,000 deaths in the US, for February
and March, and some of April. Unless that rate slows down (which may
happen in the summer), the number of deaths to August will be in the
60-100K range.

However, that rate of death could spike substantially when the US
"opens up" the economy, currently expected in mid-May. So there could
well be 100-200K deaths by August, depending on what happens when the
lockdowns end.

Now, I've seen the figure that 60% of people who are exposed to
Covid-19 will become infected. So let's assume that everyone will be
exposed to Covid-19 in one way or another some time in the next two
years. I personally believe this to be true, particularly after all
lockdowns are over and forgotten. It means that the infection rate of
160 million people over two years is quite plausible.

Finally, my own estimate of the number of deaths comes from a
comparison to the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. Based on that
comparison, I estimated 4 million deaths in the current pandemic.

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200322



That pandemic occurred in three "waves," with the second wave, in the
fall of 1919, being the worst. The second wave was made worse by the
fact that the Spanish Flu virus mutated in the summer of 1918, and
became much more dangerous, and even people who survived the illness
in the spring had no immunity to the mutated flu in the fall.

I have heard several TV experts discuss mutations of Covid-19 in
general terms. What I heard was that there have already been
mutations, and that there are already three strains of Covid-19,
although the three strains are sufficiently similar that someone who
survives illness from one is still immune from the other two, at least
for a while. According to one person, the European version is
different than the Chinese version, and the east coast has the
European version, while the west coast has the Chinese version. This
shows the danger that there may be yet another mutation that can
strike survivors of the other strains, as happened in 1918, and a huge
number of deaths from a second wave in the fall is at least a
possibility. However, Anthony Fauci says that they're well prepared
if that happens, whereas they weren't prepared in 1918.

So there are variety of estimates of the number of deaths -- from 60K
until August to four million over two years. These estimates seem to
change almost every day.

The only thing that can slow these deaths is the successful deployment
of a vaccine, and every expert I've heard says that won't occur for
another 12-18 months.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

The WuHu flu is not a bio weapon. Well, at least it was not used as one.

Part of what the virus is doing is showing the world how dependent they are on Chinese manufacturing. Most have now figured this out, and will now take measures to ensure that they have domestic manufacturing capability for strategic items (at a minimum).

If it had been used as a weapon it would have been released just prior to actual shooting. And it certainly wouldn't have been released in China itself.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I also believe that the Spanish flu is the best general comparison. But there are some statistical differences.

In the Spanish flu, the entire world population was exposed. That was just short of 2 billion people. Of those, they figure that 500 Million became infected, and of those, between 25 and 50 million died. So about 25% caught the disease, and of those, 5-10% died.

I think the best current statistical model comes from the Diamond Princess. About 3700 people. All were exposed (the food handlers were carriers). Of those, about 20% became infected. For half of those, it did not require hospitalization. But it did for 10% of those on the ship.

This could mean, extrapolated to the entire population, that eventually 10% of the population (that would be about 30 million in the USA) would require hospitalization.

The good news was that only .2% of the cruise ship population actually died. And of course, since cruise populations are highly skewed to older people, we could even say that maybe only .1% of the general population would die. This would be about 300,000 in the US.

But then, everyone that needed hospitalization from the Diamond Princess was able to get such care.

The medical system is going to be overwhelmed, just like it was during the Spanish flu. The good news is that the WuHu flu does not appear to be anywhere near as lethal. But it will still be extremely bad.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Apr-2020 World View: International hot spots
Navigator wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:01 pm
> This could mean, extrapolated to the entire population, that
> eventually 10% of the population (that would be about 30 million
> in the USA) would require hospitalization.
That's true, but there's one more thing that the media and even
Trump's task force all dance around but never really address.

There's a lot of talk about "hot spots." New York state is the
current biggest hot spot, responsible for almost half the deaths in
the country.

And a tv report today listed the next likely hot spots: Delaware,
South Dakots, Maryland, Rhode Island, Pensylvania. The number of
cases in these five states has doubled or tripled in the last seven
days. These hot spots will be growing as the New York hot spot is on
a downward slope, and it's hoped that resources can be transferred
from New York to those other locations.

However, the hot spots that the news reports rarely mention are
elsewhere: Central America, South America, Africa, the Mideast, parts
of Asia. Particularly vulnerable are crowded refugee camps and
crowded megacities, where poverty and crowding combine to make such
things as social separation and self-isolation impossible.

These probably add up to one or two billion people in these hot spots.
What's going to happen to these people? Are we all just going to sit
around and watch them die by the hundreds of millions?

They're going to try to escape to the non-hot spot countries -- the
United States, Europe, Australia, and even China -- anywhere that they
believe that they'll be safe from Covid-19.

The point is that these massive hot spots will increase the number of
deaths in the non-hot spot countries because the massive number of
infections and deaths will spill over into the non-hot spot countries.
Every country will try to build walls to keep people out, but we've
already seen in the last ten years how difficult building such walls
can be.

So your estimate that 10% of the American population could require
hospitalation may be defeated people from international hot spots will
end up seeding additional hot spots in the non-hot spot countries.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

These probably add up to one or two billion people in these hot spots.
What's going to happen to these people? Are we all just going to sit
around and watch them die by the hundreds of millions?
The countries with backbones survive; they "progressive" and "liberal" countries will be overwhelmed and destroyed. It's about time. Liberals always think they can avoid the consequences of their stupidity. They can't. And they won't.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I just looked at the Reuters news site. there were no less than five stories on transgenders. One was lamenting the anxiety felt by people whose sex change operations had been delayed by the Corona virus pandemic. OK, well, if that is what makes for headlines, I don't think this virus is really all that serious. Or is it that this society can not be taken seriously?

Oh, and if you are really fat, smoke too much, drink too much, and take drugs, you're probably going to die. Also having AIDS will probably get you killed this pandemic (see London). So, if you're fat, lose weight. if you're addicted to drugs, alcohol, and smoking, you had better go cold turkey or start making funeral arrangements.

And if you are black or Hispanic, and you die, your family can blame white males like Donald Trump. Not that it's true, but if it makes you "feel good about yourself", I guess that's all that really matters.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:49 am
is the corona virus a Chinese bio-weapon? If it is, then wouldn't it be an act of war?
Maybe this will answer the question:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/who-creat ... 05798.html

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:26 pm
** 11-Apr-2020 World View: The number of US deaths from Covid-19

So there are variety of estimates of the number of deaths -- from 60K
until August to four million over two years. These estimates seem to
change almost every day.

The only thing that can slow these deaths is the successful deployment
of a vaccine, and every expert I've heard says that won't occur for
another 12-18 months.
Two years of lockdowns?

The only sane and rational way of dealing with this outbreak is herd immunity. The virus is out there and instead of being cowards we must face head on. It's not nearly dangerous enough to justify total lockdowns. Life should return to normal for all but the risk groups, who should be strictly quarantined. Infection among the younger population should be aggressively promoted to acquire herd immunity in as little time as possible. The virus will disappear in a month.

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