Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 05-Apr-2020 World View: State of emergency in Japan

Japan will declare a state of emergency on Monday, to take effect on
Wednesday. Tokyo confirmed 143 new coronavirus infections Sunday,
marking the city's highest rate of daily increase, bringing the total
number of cases in the capital to 1,033. It's now believed that
the number of cases will surge dramatically in the next couple
of weeks. According to one analyst I heard, "Tokyo will be the
next New York."

The state of emergency will grant new powers not to the Japanese
government, but to local authorities in regional governments. he
governors of areas subject to the declaration will be able to instruct
the public to refrain from going outside except to carry out tasks
such as grocery shopping and provide essential services including
healthcare and transportation.

They can also place restrictions on the use of facilities where large
groups of people gather -- schools, social welfare facilities,
theaters, music venues, sports stadiums -- including requesting them
to close temporarily.

In the event that existing hospitals become overrun and new ones need
to be quickly set up, as has been the case in some other countries
including China and the United States, the governors will be able to
expropriate private land and buildings under certain circumstances.

They can also requisition medical supplies and food from people that
refuse to sell them, and compel companies to help transport emergency
goods.

---- Source:

-- Japan PM Abe to declare state of emergency amid surge in virus
infections
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... icial.html
(Kyodo News, 6-Apr-2020)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Is the world going to collapse? Or just parts of it?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:Is the world going to collapse? Or just parts of it?
Not collapse. Just turn upside down.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 06-Apr-2020 World View: UK official: must trade off 'harming the young versus the old'

Image
  • London's Regent St deserted on a day when it would normally
    be crowded with a mass of busy shoppers


Graham Medley, the UK government’s chief pandemic modeller, is advocating
reconsideration of the "herd immunity" strategy, which is similar
to the "ride it out" strategy that I've mentioned in earlier articles.

According to Medley, Britain must consider allowing people to catch
the virus in the least deadly way possible rather than letting
unemployment, domestic violence and mental ill health mount
indefinitely.

According to Medley, Britain must "face the trade-off between harming
the young versus the old."

This statement reflects the feelings of many Gen-Xers and Millennials
that finally they will be able to get rid of all the Boomers. This
Millennial dream is, of course, fantasy, but it's motivating some of
the talk.

Still, Medley's advice will have to be followed eventually, whether
the politicians want it or not. Another fantasy is that enforced
lockdowns will end soon. A month ago, they were thought to end in
April or May with a "V-shaped recovery," but now the fantasy is that
they'll end in May or June.

Covid-19 still has a long way to go. It still has to sweep through
Africa, the Mideast, South America, and countries in Asia. Even in
developed countries, lifting social distancing and mitigation
restrictions will cause an immediate resurgence, as we've seen in the
last few days in Singapore, Hong Kong, and China.

And every day the lockdown continues means that many small businesses
will have to close permanently, and their employees will be
permanently unemployed. So many people will continue to face the
Sophie's choice of "death by starvation" versus "death by
coronavirus."

What this means is that the public will demand some form of the "ride
it out" or "herd immunity" strategy, so that schools and businesses
can reopened.

---- Source:

-- Graham Medley / UK / PM's virus adviser warns Britain might still
need to adopt herd immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... unity.html
(Daily Mail, London, 4-Apr-2020)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Wuhan set up 5G just before the viral outbreak. 5G is toxic.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 06-Apr-2020 World View: The war over face masks

There's a growing global war over face masks, gowns, and ventilators.
This morning on MS-NBC we saw one battle in that war.

A Democratic politician on MS-NBC this morning was complaining that
states had to compete with one another to get vitally needed face
masks. The politician was Corey Johnson, Democrat, NYC council
speaker.

Johnson gave an example where someone over the weekend had to drive a
few hours to race to a gas station to meet with someone to give him a
check before someone else did, in order to get an order of face masks.
He whined that having to do that is ridiculous, incompetent and
ineffecient.

So he wants the federal government to take responsibility for
allocating such things as face masks. After he discussed this
recommendation, he went on to discuss how the government bailout
programs are racially discriminatory.

As usual, I have to marvel at the stupidity of these politicians. You
see stupidity on a daily basis, every time AOC opens her month, but
you can see that Johnson doesn't even the vaguest clue about
economics.

So let's take an example. Suppose there are one million face masks
available, and three million face masks are needed. Then, one way or
another, two million people won't get face masks. It doesn't matter
how the masks are allocated.

Typically, politicians are unable to understand simple math at the
second grade, and Johnson seems to be in that category. These numbers
are too difficult for politicians to understand.

So what is Johnson's solution to the problem? He wants Trump to
appoint a federal government bureaucrat to be "Face mask and Gown
Czar," who will decide who gets the one million face masks.

So this Czar would be appointed by Trump, so would probably be a
Republican, so Johnson would be whining every day that he's favoring
Republican districts, and that he's discriminating against blacks,
women, transgenders, Muslims, the whole works. The result would be a
bureaucratic disaster, and by the time it was done, probably only half
of the one million available face masks would be distributed.

We see this all the time -- politicians on the left and right who are
way too stupid to do much of anything except spend money, and can't
even do second grade arithmetic. The only good thing about this
situation is that Johnson's proposal has little chance of
implementation. At least I hope so.

However, this is only one battle in an increasing vitriolic global
war. Wait till it starts burning through Africa, the Mideast, and
various refugee camps. A lot of people are are going to be angry, as
they watch their friends and family drop dead from the virus.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by richard5za »

John wrote:** 06-Apr-2020 World View: UK official: must trade off 'harming the young versus the old'

Image
  • London's Regent St deserted on a day when it would normally
    be crowded with a mass of busy shoppers


Graham Medley, the UK government’s chief pandemic modeller, is advocating
reconsideration of the "herd immunity" strategy, which is similar
to the "ride it out" strategy that I've mentioned in earlier articles.


---- Source:

-- Graham Medley / UK / PM's virus adviser warns Britain might still
need to adopt herd immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... unity.html
(Daily Mail, London, 4-Apr-2020)
John, you previously expressed a view that the public wouldn't go with a herd immunity strategy; would not be able to handle all the dead bodies (my words not yours) Is your view changing?

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 06-Apr-2020 World View: Herd Immunity
richard5za wrote: > John, you previously expressed a view that the public wouldn't go
> with a herd immunity strategy; would not be able to handle all the
> dead bodies (my words not yours) Is your view changing?
Fortunately for me, I hedged and used the phrase "some form of" of
herd immunity.

Actually, the phrase "herd immunity" has actually changed its meaning.

When I first wrote about it, "herd immunity" meant that old people
would be put into isolation, and the virus would (somehow) be allowed
to burn through the population of young people. After it ended, the
old people could be let out, and everyone could live in harmony (not
counting the young people who had been killed). And no, there isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that a policy like that would be adopted by
any democracy, or by any government.

However, today the meaning "herd immunity" has changed. It simply
means not taking mitigation steps, and letting the virus burn through
the entire population. Millennials and Gen-Xers are hoping for this,
since they see it as a way to get rid of all the Boomers. So, in a
sense, the current meaning of "herd immunity" has been reversed -- it
used to mean "save all the Boomers," but now it means "kill all the
Boomers." Yayyyy!

I don't think that any government is going to adopt even this policy,
but I do think it may occur by default. It will occur by default in
any country where the hospitals and health services become
overwhelmed. This will certainly be true in many places in Africa,
the Mideast, Asia, or in crowded cities and refugee camps.

On the other hand, every place, no matter how crowded and poor, will
at least attempt mitigation steps and social distancing, even if they
don't succeed. But it's still true that no population will purposely
adopt herd immunity without making every attempt at mitigation.

By the way, if you haven't watched that 1918 Spanish Flu documentary
that I previously recommended, you should do so.

** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

What's important about this documentary is that it shows how
mitigation steps were tried, but repeatedly failed (except in San
Francisco).


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