Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
GTFOH

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by GTFOH »

According to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses in China - which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone within a month.

That will be us in six weeks.

WW3 isn't coming, revolution is.

a refugee

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by a refugee »

I have read two of your books and bits and pieces of the Fourth Turning, John. I think your analysis is much better, but sometimes I think you miss the forest for the trees.

I strongly believe that America has reached the end of the line. I would compare multi-cultural, multi-ethnic America today to the Ottoman Empire of 1914. The empire worked until it didn't. The ethnic differences became to great and the first world war didn't unite the Ottoman Empire, it destroyed it. The Armenians can tell you how that ended.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Nature documentaries
Guest wrote: > I can't think of a current TV program on that didn't include some
> form of virtue signalling. Please list a couple. Even nature
> documentaries I have recently watched have heaped entirely false
> praise on African governments for their efforts at wildlife
> protection, which is laughable.
Are you kidding? Nature documentaries? Who is going to sponsor a
nature documentary? The only groups I can think of are environmental
and climate change activists. So OF COURSE a nature documentary is
going to take far left positions on the environment.

Try "Last Man Standing." It's a situation comedy that mocks
virtue signalling.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: American Civil War
Guest wrote: > When this country "regenerates" , will the country be reborn as a
> Spanish speaking third world country? People can say race and
> culture don't matter, but they do. Language and culture are what
> bind a nation. We have largely lost that. When AOC's staff shows
> up at public events sporting t-shirts which say "The future of
> America is Latino" what I am supposed to think? What will my
> future look like? Not good.
The "regeneracy" in generational theory refers to the regeneracy of
civic unity behind the leader for the first time since the end of the
preceding crisis war. The regeneracy occurs when some event occurs
that presents an existential threat to a country or its way of life.
At that point, political enemies put politics aside, and unite to
fight the existential threat. That's the trend we're seeing now
over the coronavirus threat.

In "ordinary times," the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package
would never have passed. But last week, it passed the Senate 98-0.
That's an example of the trend towards the regeneration of civic unity.

As for AOC, she's the stupidest person on the national scene today.
She's so stupid that the only people stupider than she is are the
people who believe her.
Guest wrote: > America has a string of failed states below it in Latin
> America. This is a form gangrene that we have allowed to spread
> across our open borders. Is it racist to point that out? I don't
> believe so. No rational person would. I see a country shackled by
> political correctness and drowning.
Once again, are you completely blind to what's going on? Two months
ago, when Trump was being impeached, the country was shackled by
political correctness. But then the coronavirus hit, and presented
an existential threat to the nation which was enough to begin
the regeneracty trend -- the regeneration of civic unity to
fight the existential threat.
a refugee wrote: > I have read two of your books and bits and pieces of the Fourth
> Turning, John. I think your analysis is much better, but sometimes
> I think you miss the forest for the trees.

> I strongly believe that America has reached the end of the line. I
> would compare multi-cultural, multi-ethnic America today to the
> Ottoman Empire of 1914. The empire worked until it didn't. The
> ethnic differences became to great and the first world war didn't
> unite the Ottoman Empire, it destroyed it. The Armenians
> can tell you how that ended.
The concept of a new American civil war is pure fantasy, as I've written
many times. I've studied probably hundreds of civil wars throughout
history, and there are certain things that always precede a civil war,
but which are completely missing in America today.

Since you were kind enough to provide a historical example, I will
address that directly.

The Ottoman Empire was, obviously, an "empire." At its height, Turkey
was in control of Greece, Bulgaria, Egypt, Hungary, Macedonia,
Romania, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, some of Arabia, and a
considerable amount of the North African coastal strip.

So the Ottoman empire collapsed, meaning that Turkey no longer controlled
all those other countries. But Turkey itself survived.

So this part of your analogy completely collapses. America does not
have any similar empire. Even in the case of Puerto Rico, no war
would be required. If the Puerto Ricans simply voted to become
independent, they would become independent. So this comparison
to the Ottoman Empire is ridiculous.

The other part of your analogy is the Armenian genocide. This can be
viewed as an ethnic civil war between Turks and Armenians. After it
was over, Turkey still survived.

There is absolutely no sign today of an ethnic civil war between
Latinos and -- who? It would have to be American citizens, including
many Latinos who would be on the side of America. Even if there were
some kind of clash, it would be meaningless in the long run.
Guest wrote: > Those who have raised their voices in protest have been
> silenced.
One can only wish.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Revolution
GTFOH wrote: > According to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses in China -
> which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash
> within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone
> within a month.

> That will be us in six weeks.

> WW3 isn't coming, revolution is.
China is a good example of a country that IS headed for civil war.
China has a millennia-long history of massive anti-government
rebellions and coups, and the last 30 years have seen thousands
of "mass events" that the security forces have to put down. There is
no similar history in the United States.

On the other hand, there was a lot of far-left violence in the 1930s,
and we're seeing a resurgence of that kind of violence, for example
through the Democratic Party militia ANTIFA. However, this violence
will not lead to civil war.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I wish I could share your optimism, John. I really do. But All I see around me is anti-American hatred from Latino immigrants and even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on welfare and be given everything for free. I have been practicing social distancing from them since the 1990s. I see CW breaking out soon.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Civil war
Guest wrote: > I wish I could share your optimism, John. I really do. But All I
> see around me is anti-American hatred from Latino immigrants and
> even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on welfare and
> be given everything for free. I have been practicing social
> distancing from them since the 1990s. I see CW breaking out
> soon.
If you're going to make a claim like that, you really are obligated to
provide some real evidence, beyond your personal feelings. Are Latino
newspapers threatening a civil war? Is there a nationwide Latino
organization preparing for a civil war? Are there any Latino militias
training people to fight whites?

In fact, you've got the logic of the situation completely backwards.
In countries where there's an ethnic civil war, it's preceded by
decades of intermittent violence triggered by massive discrimination
and marginalization of the ethnic group.

But you're painting a completely different picture -- "Latino
immigrants and even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on
welfare and be given everything for free." This is the complete
opposition of the conditions that lead to civil war.

The logic of civil war is that a poor ethnic group is kept in poverty
by a wealthy ethnic group, and the poor people protest with sporadic
violence, and the government starts calling them "terrorists" and
locks them up, beats them and tortures them, leading eventually to
civil war.

But nothing like that is happening in America. And the Latinos who
are getting everything for free are smart enough to understand that
attacking the government in response to a coronavirus outbreak that's
an existential threat to the whole country is not going to get them
back all their free stuff. To the contrary, the concept of
"regeneracy" and uniting behind the leader applies to them as well,
and they'll also help in fighting the common enemy.

So if you claim that Latinos are going to launch a new civil war, then
you have an obligation to provide real evidence of planning for such a
civil war. Not only have you NOT provided any such evidence, I've
given you several reasons why such plans do not exist and don't even
make sense.


zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz »

Is it official? Does GD predict civil war in China? Is there a time frame on that or is it anytime in the next 1000 years?

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote: > Let's say for example there is an island that can support a steady
> state human population of 1,000. The human population consists of
> 6,000 due to over-expansion off the accumulated resource base. The
> population is relatively homogeneous except 3,000 have black skin
> and 3,000 have white skin, so we have 2 readily distinguishable
> subgroups. The perceived available resource drops to a level that
> is sufficient to support a population of 500 and there is a
> general consensus on this. The subgroups go to war and at the end
> of the war 2,000 whites remain and everyone else is dead. The
> perceived available resource remains at 500. The 2,000 whites then
> proceed to further divide themselves into previously unidentified
> subgroups (i.e. "Hatfields" and "McCoys") and these subgroups go
> to war. This process stops when the perceived available resource
> is greater than the remaining population.
What you've described here is exactly the template for a Generational
Dynamics saeculum with two identity groups. You can take that
scenario, and throw in a Recovery era, Awakening era, and Unraveling
era, and you have exactly what happens.

However, I'm not aware of a situation where one side was completely
wiped out. There are always "collaborators" on the winning side that
protect some of those on the losing side. A sub-population of the
losers always find a way to hide out until the war is over. And most
important, there is a crisis war climax where the losing side
surrenders and the winning sides recoils in horror at the things it's
done, sometimes turning some of those remaining on the losing side
into slaves or something similar, which causes riots in the
next Awakening era.

If your characterization of Trump is correct, then Trump is proposing
to take resources away from Mexicans and Muslims and give them to
Americans, which would trigger a war, spiraling into a crisis war.
Yes, what I described above is a very simple model that leaves a lot out. It is also extreme because I described a carrying capacity that is less than 10 percent of the population. One of my goals in conveying that model as I did was to illustrate that humans divide themselves into subgroups on a continuum where even if the population is all one racial group, it will divide into subgroups and the like racial subgroups will war against each other.

A more accurate example of the model would be to start with the 3,000 and the 3,000, then reduce those to 1,800 and 200, for example. The 1,800 would then see that eliminating the remaining 200 would do them no good and the 1,800 would then perceive subgroups within the 1,800 and war against each other. The larger subgroups within the 1,800 would at some point be perceived as more of a threat than the remaining 200 or whatever that number needs to be to put their attention elsewhere.
In my opinion, one of the key factors to answer the debate in the above discussion (in this thread, not within this post which is an old discussion from 2016) is the perceived geographic area of the resource base.

Clearly, in the 2016 election, the perceived geographic area of the resource base to be divided was considered to be global. Trump voters wanted to reclaim some of the resources that had been lost and Trump promised to redress those losses that came about due to globalists, China, etc. To the extent that the resource base that is being squabbled over remains global in nature, nothing changes. If the world gets smaller and the resource base being squabbled over is entirely within national borders and conditions are uniform within those borders, then an organized Civil War on a national scale would be possible. If the world gets even smaller than that (and quickly), and the resource base being squabbled over is profoundly local and conditions are profoundly variable between localities, war will not be organized on a global or national scale. That's what I think is going to happen and who is at each other's throats will be highly variable across the US. But I can see why others would disagree with that assessment.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 55 guests