Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Fauci shocks everyone by predicting 100K to 200K deaths

Appearing on CNN on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci is predicting 100,000 to
200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Fauci is today the leading American superstar expert on Covid-19,
considered the most authoritative voice in the nation. He is Director
of National Institute Of Allergy And Infectious Diseases. He appears
on television frequently, and he's part of president Donald Trump's
coronavirus task force, and he appears alongside Trump almost every
day in Trump's coronavirus press conferences, which are becoming "must
see tv."

Fauci was asked: "How many cases do you think the U.S. will reach? A
million cases, 10 million cases? Or are these -- we -- or do we not
even have any idea?"
> "You've got be realistic, and you've got to understand
> that you don't make the timeline, the virus makes the
> timeline. ...

> There are things called models. And when someone creates a model,
> they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and
> as accurate as your assumptions. And whenever the modelers come
> in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

> Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never
> seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the
> worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot. ...

> I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, I would say between
> 100,000 and 200,000 [deaths]. But I don't want to be held to
> that. ... I mean, we're going to have millions of
> cases."
Fauci was trying to be reassuring, but when he siad "I don't want to
be held to that," it's because even he doesn't believe what he's
saying.

There are 330 million Americans, and obviously there are going to be
many, many cases -- probably around 200 million cases. This would
lead to 2-4 million deaths, as I showed in my article comparing the
Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200322



As I showed in my article, today we're on exactly the same path as the
Spanish Flu pandemic, and there won't be any divergence until a
vaccine is deployed, which won't happen for over a year.

Those who doubt this should at least remember the following:
  • New York city is the US epicenter right now, but there are new
    major hot spots in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago, and they'll
    spread to other cities and towns.
  • Once the harsh restrictions are lifted, which everyone seems to
    expect with a month or so, there will be a resurgence as infections
    spread again.
  • The spread of Covid-19 may slow in warm summer weather, but the
    weather will be cold again in the fall, resulting in a "second
    wave."
  • Just as the ordinary seasonal flu mutates every year, requiring a
    new vaccine every year, the Covid-19 virus is likely to mutate, with
    the result that survivors of the first wave will be sick again in the
    second wave in the fall.
  • Other countries are not prepared to handle Covid-19 as well as the
    US and the West. The virus will sweep through countries in Africa,
    Central America and Asia soon, and then again in the second wave in
    the fall. These massive infections will seed outbreaks in other
    countries, including Western countries.
Guest 5 wrote: > While I think that we’ll be okay if we’re talking a shutdown of
> just a couple more weeks, I have to say that I hope President
> Trump *doesn’t* listen to the “experts” who are telling him a 3-4
> month shutdown, because there’s no way society survives that in
> exchange for $1,000 or so a person.
This is absolutely correct, and it's the other side of the problem.

One goal is fewer deaths from the virus, and the other goal is fewer
deaths from starvation. Unfortunately, these two goals are in
conflict.

So Trump's policies are going to have to balance the risks from these
two goals.

Companies like Amazon, Kroger, CVS and Walgreen are hiring hundreds of
thousands of workers. This is tiny compared to the tens of millions
of job losses, but it begins a trend for how the "real economy" (as
opposed to the stock market) will begin to recover.

So we're looking at millions of Covid-19 deaths, tens of millions of
job losses, and hundreds of millions of Covid-19 infections. Those
are stark figures, and there is no possible Trump policy that will
satisfactorily handle the situation.

-- US could see millions of coronavirus cases and 100,000 or more
deaths, Fauci says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics ... index.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)

-- CNN Transcript
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... tu.01.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:I would love to hear what your readers who have family and friends in China are hearing.

Also, just saw on another site that there are large scale fights going on at the borders of Hubei with the police of neighboring province (Jaingxi).

As GD points out, China is overdue for conflict. My belief is that the CCP will do everything possible to direct this outward.

Hence their predicted lie that the virus was planted by the US military.
Regarding financial hardship, which is a concern in the US almost equally important to the viruse itself...
My Chinese parents-in- law have a rental apartment, as do we here in the US. We're facing the potential of non-payment for some time TBD. I asked about how they're faring and it's irrelevant at this point because people pay a full year ahead of time together with substantial deposit. Their penchant for saving maybe carried down from millennia of difficult times.


Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Posting YT videos? Is this your new thing, or perhaps a form of protest? :roll:

Or is their some deep message that you are trying to rely to us?

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JCP »

I think society will change because of this.

I think Hollywood will largely implode because people will realize that it isn't necessary to go to a theater and deal with feral youth and their useless unwed single feral mothers. People will watch movies at home. People will also give up on modern PC virtue signalling films and television and discover (or re-discover) good TV shows from the 80s when PC was not so deeply ingrained in Hollywood. Also, after watching cringy isolation videos by celebrities with a complete lack of self-awareness, older viewers no longer want to see these people ever again and will watch old programming starring dead or now elderly actors for free online.

Young people don't seem to watch TV anymore; they are addicted to social media and turning themselves into reality stars. Thankfully Hollywood will die, but the youth will become more useless and self absorbed. Only starvation and the inability to pay for new tattoos will wake them up to the realization that their parents are now jobless and broke.

Most restaurants will die because most of the food is cooked in unhygienic kitchens by unwashed illegals. Some will know what it is like to live with hepatitis A infections and like it. Many, if not most fat people will continue to eat fast food their as long as their EBT cards work. I can't believe how gross the average American has become. Sales of mobility scooters will remain steady.

This will probably be the final nail in the coffin for malls. People will simply avoid the misery of rundown malls and the feral youth which hang out there so that they can rob people in the parking lot and just buy online.

Of course, this only applies to those who have any money left. Those without any won't matter and will join the ranks of unpersons...

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Society changes
JCP wrote: > I think society will change because of this.

> I think Hollywood will largely implode because people will realize
> that it isn't necessary to go to a theater and deal with feral
> youth and their useless unwed single feral mothers. People will
> watch movies at home.
People go to the movie theater for a date or for a family night out
of the house. That won't change.
JCP wrote: > People will also give up on modern PC virtue signalling films and
> television and discover (or re-discover) good TV shows from the
> 80s when PC was not so deeply ingrained in Hollywood. Also, after
> watching cringy isolation videos by celebrities with a complete
> lack of self-awareness, older viewers no longer want to see these
> people ever again and will watch old programming starring dead or
> now elderly actors for free online.
There are lots of good TV shows that don't do PC virtue signalling.
Just because you're addicted to watching cringy isolation videos,
don't think others are.
JCP wrote: > Young people don't seem to watch TV anymore; they are addicted to
> social media and turning themselves into reality stars. Thankfully
> Hollywood will die, but the youth will become more useless and
> self absorbed. Only starvation and the inability to pay for new
> tattoos will wake them up to the realization that their parents
> are now jobless and broke.
Today's youth with be the next "Greatest Generation."
JCP wrote: > Most restaurants will die because most of the food is cooked in
> unhygienic kitchens by unwashed illegals. Some will know what it
> is like to live with hepatitis A infections and like it. Many, if
> not most fat people will continue to eat fast food their as long
> as their EBT cards work. I can't believe how gross the average
> American has become. Sales of mobility scooters will remain
> steady.
This is totally idiotic and mostly crap. It's even personally
offensive to me, since I'm overweight. You don't have the vaguest
clue what you're talking about.

Please do not cross the line into racism, or I'll have to remove
your posts.
JCP wrote: > This will probably be the final nail in the coffin for
> malls. People will simply avoid the misery of rundown malls and
> the feral youth which hang out there so that they can rob people
> in the parking lot and just buy online.
Malls have been dying for several years, totally unrelated to your
nonsense of "feral youths." It's called "the retail ice age."
JCP wrote: > Of course, this only applies to those who have any money
> left. Those without any won't matter and will join the ranks of
> unpersons...
Or else, they'll march off to war to save our country and your butt.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Society changes
JCP wrote: > I think society will change because of this.

> I think Hollywood will largely implode because people will realize
> that it isn't necessary to go to a theater and deal with feral
> youth and their useless unwed single feral mothers. People will
> watch movies at home.
People go to the movie theater for a date or for a family night out
of the house. That won't change.
JCP wrote: > People will also give up on modern PC virtue signalling films and
> television and discover (or re-discover) good TV shows from the
> 80s when PC was not so deeply ingrained in Hollywood. Also, after
> watching cringy isolation videos by celebrities with a complete
> lack of self-awareness, older viewers no longer want to see these
> people ever again and will watch old programming starring dead or
> now elderly actors for free online.
There are lots of good TV shows that don't do PC virtue signalling.
Just because you're addicted to watching cringy isolation videos,
don't think others are.
JCP wrote: > Young people don't seem to watch TV anymore; they are addicted to
> social media and turning themselves into reality stars. Thankfully
> Hollywood will die, but the youth will become more useless and
> self absorbed. Only starvation and the inability to pay for new
> tattoos will wake them up to the realization that their parents
> are now jobless and broke.
Today's youth with be the next "Greatest Generation."
JCP wrote: > Most restaurants will die because most of the food is cooked in
> unhygienic kitchens by unwashed illegals. Some will know what it
> is like to live with hepatitis A infections and like it. Many, if
> not most fat people will continue to eat fast food their as long
> as their EBT cards work. I can't believe how gross the average
> American has become. Sales of mobility scooters will remain
> steady.
This is totally idiotic and mostly crap. It's even personally
offensive to me, since I'm overweight. You don't have the vaguest
clue what you're talking about.

Please do not cross the line into racism, or I'll have to remove
your posts.
JCP wrote: > This will probably be the final nail in the coffin for
> malls. People will simply avoid the misery of rundown malls and
> the feral youth which hang out there so that they can rob people
> in the parking lot and just buy online.
Malls have been dying for several years, totally unrelated to your
nonsense of "feral youths." It's called "the retail ice age."
JCP wrote: > Of course, this only applies to those who have any money
> left. Those without any won't matter and will join the ranks of
> unpersons...
Or else, they'll march off to war to save our country and your butt.
Wishful thinking, John. You said it yourself, "All governments fail." Why should America be any different? I love my country, always have, always will, but I see little around me to give me hope. Too few are alive today to save a sinking ship.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Regeneracy
Guest wrote: > Wishful thinking, John. You said it yourself, "All governments
> fail." Why should America be any different? I love my country,
> always have, always will, but I see little around me to give me
> hope. Too few are alive today to save a sinking ship.
When did I say "All governments fail"? What was the context? I
cannot find any record of that remark, although I suppose that all
governments must fail at some point.

Are you guys blind? Can't you see what's going on?

For the last 15 years, I've been writing that a "regeneracy event"
would occur that would (like the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan
Death March) unite the country behind whoever is president at the
time. During the Obama administration, Obama opponents were
infuriated by the suggestion. Then during the Trump administration,
Trump opponents were infuriated by the suggestion.

I had expected that event to be some sort of missile attack, but I
sure never expected anything like Covid-19. Nonetheless, here we are.
Two months ago, the Democrats were impeaching the president. Today,
they're cooperating with the president. Some Democrats are even
saying nice things about Trump.

The unity is incomplete, but it's a clear trend. So what I predicted
is happening right before your eyes.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

People go to the movie theater for a date or for a family night out
of the house. That won't change.
It's already changed. Even before the current epidemic, movie audiences were below 1992 levels. The population of the US had grown considerably since 1992, and yet fewer go to movie theaters. I see a trend.


There are lots of good TV shows that don't do PC virtue signalling.
Just because you're addicted to watching cringy isolation videos,
don't think others are.
The 'cringy' isolation videos have been widely criticized in the media. I have only seen one. I don't even use social media. I think this is a valid point about the disconnect that wealthy Hollywood celebrities have with everyone outside their bubble.

I can't think of a current TV program on that didn't include some form of virtue signalling. Please list a couple. Even nature documentaries I have recently watched have heaped entirely false praise on African governments for their efforts at wildlife protection, which is laughable.
Today's youth with be the next "Greatest Generation."
Really? Really?

This is totally idiotic and mostly crap. It's even personally
offensive to me, since I'm overweight. You don't have the vaguest
clue what you're talking about.
Obesity is a national crisis. "Body postivity" is one an example of how American society has given up on health. When I grew up every class had "a fat kid." Now the virtually the entire class is fat. It's a health crisis. I find America's decreasing life expectancy to shocking. You find that offensive?
Please do not cross the line into racism, or I'll have to remove
your posts.
Was does that even mean anymore? Oh, yeah, you can only criticize white males.
Malls have been dying for several years, totally unrelated to your
nonsense of "feral youths." It's called "the retail ice age."
Crime is not the defining issue on why malls are going bust across the country, but it is an issue. Why are malls in predominately white enclaves still thriving when those in urban middle class and working class areas dying?

Or else, they'll march off to war to save our country and your butt.
I think some will march off, but many won't. Many will be too overweight or drug addicted to serve in the military.


I think the one gap in Generational Dynamics remains the end game. Eventually there is no rejuvenation because the country collapses. Rome came to an end, John. I see America's end within my lifetime, and I am not that young. How fat, sloppy, lazy, and degenerate can a society become before it can't go on anymore?

America has a string of failed states below it in Latin America. This is a form gangrene that we have allowed to spread across our open borders. Is it racist to point that out? I don't believe so. No rational person would. I see a country shackled by political correctness and drowning.
Please do not cross the line into racism, or I'll have to remove
your posts.
Those who have raised their voices in protest have been silenced.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest 5 wrote:While I think that we’ll be okay if we’re talking a shutdown of just a couple more weeks, I have to say that I hope President Trump *doesn’t* listen to the “experts” who are telling him a 3-4 month shutdown, because there’s no way society survives that in exchange for $1,000 or so a person.

I’m listening to those “experts” talk about coronavirus as if it lives in some kind of vacuum where no other concerns are relevant, and my immediate thought when I heard a multi-month timeline was “What are you, fucking nuts!?!” If people struggle for a month or so, that’s bad but it’s something that can be overcome relatively easily with some support like the stimulus bill. You cut them off from going to work or paying bills for three to four months, and they won’t have any jobs to go back to. You’ll see rioting and looting in the streets.

Because at that point you’re talking threats to Maslow’s most basic level in the hierarchy of needs, and people will absolutely turn on each other to save themselves when their basic ability to provide a living for themselves is threatened.

The immeasurable damage being done to the world economy is unconscionable, and will haunt us all far beyond the worst mortality numbers from the virus. Look at any recession; suicides alone skyrocket, homes will be lost, domestic violence will escalate, crime will increase, families will break up, etc. The handling of this by politicians is abysmal.

I’m guessing the total American deaths from the WuFlu will be 80,000, worst case.

I also guess that 6-7 years from now, when economists measure ‘excess deaths’ from the economic despair and the subsequent social unrest it will be north of 8,000,000.

Even cancer deaths will skyrocket:
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press ... aths-atun/
All I see around me is severe economic distress. People are on the verge of becoming homeless. As a single male, it wouldn't bother me, but what about those who have a wife and children? Are they to be at the mercy of the streets? This shutdown is stupid and ill conceived. I see massive societal disorder coming.

Rich airheads like Gov. Cuomo have no idea what it is to go without. I'm not the product of private schools and a generous trust fund. I live in the harsh world of middle-class America. Except now I consider myself to be working class. America's political class has abandoned the average American in favor of special interest groups.

I see no way out of this. Sometimes it's just over.

When this country "regenerates" , will the country be reborn as a Spanish speaking third world country? People can say race and culture don't matter, but they do. Language and culture are what bind a nation. We have largely lost that. When AOC's staff shows up at public events sporting t-shirts which say "The future of America is Latino" what I am supposed to think? What will my future look like? Not good.

Game over.

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