Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

People get the government and country they deserve.

I left. I'm better off.

So long and thanks for all the fish.

Nathan Redshield

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Nathan Redshield »

What's-His-Name in Syria. Think Giangalliaza Visconti. Laid seige to Florence in 1402; the Florentines were saved when he suddenly died of plague. We'll see.
Wlecome back, John! We need you.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 27-Mar-2020 World View: China closes movie theaters again, fearing virus second wave

On Friday, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ordered all movie
theaters across China to close. There are 70,000 movie theaters in
China, and they had all be ordered closed in January, to prevent the
spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19).

Recently, China has been reporting only a handful of new Covid-19
cases each day, and was bragging that China had been successful in
bring the pandemic under control in China. And so, two weeks ago, the
CCP began permitting movie theatres to reopen, and 600 theaters had
begun doing so.

However, on Friday evening, the CCP suddenly ordered all movie
theaters to shut down again. What this means to me is that the CCP
had been believing its own nonsense about having Covid-19 under
control, and the movie theatres were resulting in a "second wave" of
cases.

However, China has 1.4 billion people, and it simply doesn't make
sense that such a huge population should have ended the coronavirus
epidemic with only 80,000 cases. Nobody believes any numbers that
come out of China anyway, but these numbers never made any sense at
all.

In fact, there have been several reports coming out of China that
hospitals are not testing for coronavirus, or are reporting
coronavirus cases as something else, so avoid having to report new
cases. Furthermore the CCP still has brutal censorship rules in
place, where anyone who reports something that contradicts official
CCP claims can be harshly punished. So there is no incentive for
anyone to report new Covid-19 cases up the chain to the CCP, or to
even test for Covid-19.

What's interesting about the current situation is that the sudden
shutdown of the movie theaters reveals that the CCP believed its own
lies, and the lies were contradicted by the results of opening the
theaters, forcing them to be closed again.

China has particularly been bragging that the United States now has
the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases of any country in the
world, including China. The reason for that is that the US has
conducted far more Covid-19 tests than any other country in the world.
The number of confirmed cases does not depend on the population of a
country. It depends on the number of tests. If a country has a
million cases, but only 100 people ae tested, then you will not
confirm any more than 100 cases. That's what's happening in this
case, where the US has now become world leader in testing for
Covid-19, and therefore has the largest number of confirmed cases.

Most people on tv don't want to talk about a "second wave," because it
interferes with the hope that the entire crisis will end by May,
though these are the same people who, a month ago, were hoping that
the crisis would end by April.

There are signs that a "second wave" is growing in Hong Kong and South
Korea, as the social distancing restrictions are being relaxed, and
restaurants are reopening.

In the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, there was a huge "second wave"
in the fall of 1918. It was much worse than the first wave that
occurred in the previous spring, and killed tens of millions of
people.

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200322



In fall of 1918, officials were not expecting a second wave, and they
were completely unprepared for it. In fall of this year, officials
will be quite expecting a second wave, and will do everything possible
in advance to prepare for it.

That may not be true for China, if the CCP keeps believing its own
lies, and keeps censoring people who try to tell what's really going
on.

---- Sources:

-- China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ ... in-1287040
(HollywoodReporter, 27-Mar-2020)

-- Coronavirus Comeback? China Braces For Possible Second Wave Of
COVID-19
https://www.rferl.org/a/china-braces-fo ... 13782.html
(RFERL, 27-Mar-2020)

-- Ren Zhiqiang / Chinese Property Tycoon's Letter Seen as 'Internal
Strife' by Chinese President
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 60600.html
(RFA, 26-Mar-2020)

-- The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... es-already
(BB, 26-Mar-2020)

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I would love to hear what your readers who have family and friends in China are hearing.

Also, just saw on another site that there are large scale fights going on at the borders of Hubei with the police of neighboring province (Jaingxi).

As GD points out, China is overdue for conflict. My belief is that the CCP will do everything possible to direct this outward.

Hence their predicted lie that the virus was planted by the US military.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** 26-Mar-2020 Calling all Koreans

Are there still any Koreans still watching this thread?

If so, how are you doing? How is South Korea doing?

South Korea is being held up as a model for the United States and the
world to follow. Did South Korea succeed?

As a related matter, have you heard any rumors from North Korea? The
North Koreans are claiming that since they closed the border to China,
there are no cases of coronavirus in North Korea.
Korea here. Yes, the outbreak seems to be under control, but just. The young are the problem here. They think they are unaffected by the virus, so they run wild. The streets are waves of young people. Very few old people go out. The young are taking advantage of the apparent freedom this gives them. They don't seem to consider that they could infecting others. I think the situation here can best be described as having a tiger by the tail. The virus is being held in check, but just barely. Most cases now are brought in by foreign air travelers, but the government doesn't have the courage to ban them, just quarantine them for 14 days.

Schools remain closed. They are supposed to reopen on April 6th, but there is serious doubt this will happen. This is the third time winter break has been extended.

The economy is in dire condition. Most SMEs face bankruptcy in the near term, and Korean government offers loan! Koreans are easily the most debt laden people in Asia, and government offers more. They have to offer cash grants, or the economy will implode.

I think the second wave will hit and destroy Korean economy.

Trump is correct to call it the Wuhan flu or Chinese virus because that's what it is.

Daily Reader

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Daily Reader »

Nice to see an updte from on the ground in Korea.

Here is an update from Hong Kong from WilliamBanzai, a long time contributor over at Zerohedge. WB lives in HK and is always a good source on info for what is going on there.

He wrote the following in the comments section of this article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-03- ... ruspart-ii

Comment was posted early morning (US Eastern time) of 3/28/2020:



OK, this is my update:

As many of you know Hong Kong was hit with this crisis very early on around third week in January. We had three things going for us at the time.

First, we did not have many Chinese New Year visitations from China on account of the negative good will created by the protests.

Second, we have a very competent medical establishment here particularly when it comes to infectious disease control. This is primarily as a result of the traumatic SARS experience which hit the medical profession very hard. A medical emergency was declared in January, schools were closed and work from home policies were activated across the private and public sectors. Borders were tightened somewhat belatedly for political reasons, by first week in February.

Third, the adult segment of the general population here still remembers SARS well and knew instinctively what to do: mask, wash isolate.

Macau, Singapore and Taiwan were similarly positioned.

As a result, Hong Kong did not have to "flatten its curve" it never bulged. The case count grew linearly instead of exponentially. We had an initial TP/Mask style panic run, but that subsided in a week or two and the stores here have been fully stocked for weeks. Restaurants and bars remained open, although that industry has been hit very hard and many catering primarily to tourists have shut down. The streets are not empty. People are out and about, but briskly with an immediate sense of purpose. Masks are worn by 99.9%. Wash, wash, wash...

Foreign tourist visitations and all inter-country connections through the airport have been suspended indefinitely.

So what changed recently? During the past week or so we have experienced a surge of resident returnees from Europe and North America. These consist of HK overseas students and residents (many of whom ran away from HK in the early days), as well as returning foreign expatriate residents who similarly left then figured out that it is relatively safer here. The bankers and embassy people were among the first to send their families home.

During this recent period, the number of cases per day jumped significantly 30 to 40 to 50 to 60 etc. The Health Department sounded the alarm. Additionally, a group of bars managed by the same group has suffered a cluster of cases infecting the Filipino cover band members and bat, I mean bar staff. There have been numerous reports of returnees violating self quarantine orders. Those very selfish people are being tracked down and forced into government facilities. Its pretty easy to self quarantine for 15 days. All kinds of food is deliverable.

So yesterday, new controls have been announced for the next two weeks initially. All public venues with large crowds, parks, theaters, sports facilities, gyms etc have been shut. All restaurants are required to implement table separation (1.5 meters) and parties of 4 are the maximum. Bars are required to cut their capacity in half, take mandatory temperature checks and provide cleaning gels. If you are wondering who is stupid enough to go to the bars in the midst of this, the answer is mostly stupid expats who still insist this is the flu (Party on Barf!). Why the **** are any bars allowed to stay open now? The answer is idiocy and a guy named Alan Zeman who runs a large entertainment zone called Lan Kwai Fong and is pals with Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of HK.

So this is where we are at the moment. A population of about 7.6 million people, 518 cases and 4 deaths. So far as I know, the hospitals here are stressed but not in a state of imminent collapse. They want to reverse the recent trend ASAP.

The bottom line is there is no magic light at the end of this tunnel yet. You have to remain vigilant. If you do not, this thing will jump right back and bite you. And no. I don't believe the data from across the border. Although, I believe having extreme authoritarian measures in your tool kit can be advantageous in controlling this type of situation, I do not believe the outbreak can be eradicated so quickly.

I also do not believe that the whole world needs to be totalitarian to prevent future pandemics. We need to educate people how to prepare and react and we need to have a competent method for early warning, testing and tracing. All the "experts" agree the time to nip this at the bud was in December or perhaps sooner. And yes, transparency and truthfulness is key. The WHO as we all know, is a useless boondoggle.

Tokyo is about to go boom on account of the government's wishful thinking regarding the now postponed Olympics. They played this down and it appears the virus has spread there for weeks. Tokyo also had many CNY visitations unlike HK. Although the Japanese are known to be masked hypochondriacs, the medical establishment there is average to mediocre. Keep an eye on Tokyo.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Thanks for these on-the-ground reports.

SME = small or medium-sized enterprise
CNY = Chinese New Year

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Not that I care for any mainstream media, but this article seems to be somewhat fair:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/p ... e=Homepage


John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Mar-2020 World View: Pidgin News
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufk7IXdxc-c
> Pidgin News
Very funny, and highly relevant

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