** 20-Feb-2020 World View: Trevor the optimist
Trevor wrote:
> Wow, John. You make me look like an optimist in comparison.
> My own thoughts on at least the United States, Europe, and the
> United Nations: Yes, it's terrible. Yes, we all know none of this
> agreements are worth the paper or data they're printed on. On the
> other hand, what can we really do about it? Terrible things happen
> all the time, whether on a family level, or an international
> level.
> When it comes to the massacre in Syria, for instance, what can we
> realistically do at this point? Assad's not going to stop
> butchering his own people, Putin's not going to stop supporting
> him, and if we did decide to remove him from power, there's no
> guarantee things would turn out any better. Now Turkey's involved
> in the war, and I'd expect at least some rebels would take
> pleasure in giving the Alwaite minority the same treatment. Life
> rarely gives us neat, tidy solutions, however much we wish
> otherwise.
> It reminds me a little bit of what politicians have to say after
> local disasters and there's really no way to win. If you say:
> "Everything's under control, there's nothing to worry about,"
> you're accused of covering things up. If you sound the alarm and
> demand imminent action, you're accused of inciting
> panic. Regardless of what approach you take, someone's going to
> get outraged.
> No need to apologize for ranting about how you feel about what's
> going on in the world.
You've raised two major issues here: 1 - Are things different
today than they were in the past, and 2 - what can anyone do about
the situation except just "observe" and, if desired, whine and
rant as I am doing.
The answer to the first question is that things ae very different
today, and very diffeent since the rise of Generation-X and
Millennials.
There are lots of examples. In the 1950s, when everyone was still
traumatized from the Great Depression and the war, an idiot like AOC
would never be taken seriously. In fact, she would never be taken
seriously for decades.
In the 1980s, Congress accomplished a lot, because people from the GI
Generation and the Silent Generation (people born during the Great
Depression and WW II) were in charge.
In the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated with each
other to change the Social Security system to make it a sounder
system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new rules to
control the budget deficit. Compromise was still possible in 1996,
when Democratic President Bill Clinton, saying that "the era of big
government is over," cooperated with the Republican congress to
eliminate the welfare entitlement.
Nothing like that is even remotely possible today, as anyone
can see with AOC running the Democratic party.
With regard to foreign policy, let's look at the destruction of the
United Nations.
I started writing about this in 2011 when Russia adopted a policy of
using the UN Security Council to cripple Nato and American foreign
policy. Since America plays by the rules, major American foreign
policy decisions go through the UNSC, when possible. That means that
Russia can control US foreign policy simply by using its veto in the
UNSC.
But Russia would not be under any similar disadvantage. Russia would
do what it wants -- invade Ukraine, invade Crimea, annex Crimea,
etc. -- without getting permission from the UNSC or anyone else.
None of this stuff would have been tolerated in the decades following
the end of WW II, when the UNSC had a benevolent international purpose.
But Russia has turned the benevolent purpose into a malevolent
one, by using the UNSC to control American and Nato policy.
The result, not surprisingly, is that the UNSC has become
useless. It's just a place where nonsense is debated. Russia
has succeeded in destroying the United Nations, which the US
set up after WW II to guarantee that there wouldn't be another
world war. That's how the generational cycle works.
So what anyone do except just observe when someone starts a war?
Nothing, because Russia, Iran and China have succeeded in destroying
the United Nations, and because the taste for unilateral action
has all but disappeared has all but disappeared.
This will change overnight when a "regeneracy event" occurs, such as a
major attack on America, or a major military loss overseas.