Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

CH86 wrote: BTW, I'm a Millie Born in 1986. Gen-X ends somewhere between the 1978 and 1980 cohorts.
Then you'll be screwed first by the xers, and then again by the generation after millennials. You'll get twice the karmic justice, and you deserve it completely.

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

Guest wrote:
CH86 wrote: BTW, I'm a Millie Born in 1986. Gen-X ends somewhere between the 1978 and 1980 cohorts.
Then you'll be screwed first by the xers, and then again by the generation after millennials. You'll get twice the karmic justice, and you deserve it completely.
Boomers are on the verge of completely aging out of power. When that happens Power would delegate to the next high birth rate cohorts and these were born between 1976 and 1995. Not only that but birth rates started declining again after 1995. Finally the Post-1996 cohorts haven't shown any political competence. There would only be a short interlude of 1960s/early 1970s cohort leadership due to those cohorts being of relatively small size. Power would have to come to the 1975-1995 cohorts because they are next large one that has been educated. What are you going to do; delegate to the post-1996 Cohorts, LOL to the notion of giving power directly to the current prominent teens Who are SJWs and Trans nuts. Power would be given to the current mid 20s to late 40s year olds; with the current teens and college age cohorts being used as muscle/cannon fodder, the demographics leave no other option.

Guest X

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest X »

I'm sure that the waves of 3rd world migrants pouring into America will be happy to pay into the system and keep it going so that Xers and Millennials will be able to have comfortable retirements.

shoshin
Posts: 211
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 4:05 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by shoshin »

There's a;ways a Tweet....


Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted at 9:12 PM on Mon, Oct 22, 2012:
Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate
(https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 52480?s=09)

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Oct-2019 World View: A teaching moment for forum members

Trump's announcement of the killing of al-Baghdadi provides me with
a teaching opportunity for those who read the Generational Dynamics
web site and forum, and have been making snarky comments directed
at me with the implication that the only reason I wrote about
it is because you imagine I love Trump.
shoshin wrote: > There's always a Tweet....

> Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted at 9:12 PM on Mon, Oct
> 22, 2012: Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The
> Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate
> (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 52480?s=09)
zzazz wrote: > I saw the nes. Trump was boasting " I killed al-Baghdadi ", " I
> killed al-Baghdadi .", I killed al-Baghdadi ."

> And I thought to myself, Xenakis is claiming that Trump
> understands GD. But here is proof he doesn't, because GD says the
> individual leaders don't contribute a thing to history. So I
> thought I'd waltz over here to read Xenakis setting Trump
> right. But to my surprise what Xenakis was actually saying was
> "Trume killed al-Baghdadi". "Trump killed al-Baghdadi", "Trump
> killed al-Baghdadi". Sheeeeeeesh
So, in response to these snarky comments, here's what I wrote
on May 2, 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed:
John Xenakis wrote: > Osama bin Laden is dead

> Late Sunday evening, President Barack Obama announced that Osama
> bin Laden was killed a week ago by a U.S. bomb delivered manually,
> not by a drone, based on actionable US intelligence. DNA tests
> have confirmed that it's really OBL. Bin Laden was killed in a
> mansion in Abbottabad, Pakistan, near Islamabad. American bases
> around the world have been told to be on high alert for revenge
> attacks. The death of OBL is an important symbolic act at this
> time, but it may not have much effect on the operations in
> Afghanistan. OBL's death by American attack in Pakistan will have
> repercussions in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, and will
> cause a backlash among Pakistanis who object to U.S. missile
> strikes in Pakistan. Furthermore, the fact that OBL was killed
> near the Pakistani capital of Islamabad will raise suspicions that
> Pakistan's intelligence group suspected or knew where he was.
> Hundreds of joyful Washingtonians and students gathered outside
> the north lawn of the White House, cheering, chanting "USA!" and
> singing the Star Spangled Banner.

> ** 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e110502
So as you can see, Dear Snarky Reader, what I wrote about the bin Laden
killing has the same tone as what I wrote about the al-Bagdadi killing.

This is a good example of how I treated Obama and Trump in exactly
the same way.

The real evil today is the total demented obsession that Democrats
have with Trump.

The result is that Democrats are becoming stupider every day. The
reason is that there's a lot going on in the world, but Democrats know
almost nothing about it, since they know little to start with, and
then the Democrats spend 24 hours a day obsessing over their
impeachment carnival instead of paying attention to the world. So
they know less and less about the world every day (except for the ones
who read my web site). So I'm not joking when I say that Democrats
are getting stupider every day. And Hillary Clinton, particularly,
seems to have become psychotic.

Finally, I'll address zzazz's idiotic comment about the significance
of the death of al-Bagdadi.

I'll start with an example. World War I was triggered when Austrian
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school
student. It's not that Ferdinand was some fantastic leader who was
controlling history. It's because the killing was an event that
triggered other events.

So the killing of al-Baghdadi will almost certainly provoke revenge
attacks, as the killing of bin Laden did. During his press
conference, Trump repeatedly said that al-Baghdadi died like a coward,
died like a dog, whimpering and crying. He said that repeatedly so
that it would be clear that al-Baghdadi was no hero, but a pathetic
figure who should be forgotten, not avenged.

Another interesting thing about the killing, which I mentioned in
the article, is that the US received the cooperation of Russia,
Turkey, and others in the operation.

Generational Dynamics is a non-ideological methodology for
interpreting and analyzing history and current events. The Core
Principle of Generational Dynamics, which I've stated many times, is
as follows:

Core Principle of Generational Dynamics:

"Even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of
people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II or the Holocaust. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their
actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent,
and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events
of history -- but can only bring about marginal
adjustments."
The Core Principle applies to Trump, to Obama, to al-Baghdadi, to
Ferdinand, and to all politicians.

I've written 6,000 articles in the last 15 years, containing thousands
of Generational Dynamics analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, all of which have come true or are trending true. There is
no journalist, politician, analyst or web site anywhere in the world
with a better record of accurate analysis and forecasting.
Generational Dynamics is a major development.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:Many doom articles (posted here). However, you will find very little available anywhere else, in a mainstream fashion, which reports anything even half truthfully. I'd rather have doom articles and prepare for the worst than to live in LaLa Land and prepare for nothing.
Just keep doing what you are doing, John.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Oct-2019 World View: Algorithms for the Singularity
David Horn wrote: > Give this a moment's thought. Why should something so drastically
> different be imaginable in any real degree? The best thought
> exercise I ever heard, (note: it's not mine to claim) made the
> point perfectly. Get in a Wayback Machine, and travel to
> Runnymede at the time of the signing of the Magna Carta -- surely
> an example of advanced thinking for its time. Once there, find
> someone to harangue about the future, and expound to him or her
> (most likely, him) about the Internet. For that matter, just get
> them to understand life in the 21st century. No one in that time
> would have had a usable benchmark for anything we take for
> granted. Air conditioning and automobiles would be magic, but the
> internet -- simply beyond comprehension.

> For us, the Singularity is our future "Internet".
The thing is that the Singularity is not drastically different at all.

Here's an example. The first major chess-playing program was written
in the 1960s, using the "minimax algorithm." The way that algorithm
works is "if I play A then you'll play B and I'll play C or if I
play A and you play X then I'll play Y." So the algorithm creates
a tree of possible moves and responses, and uses that to select the
best move. It was a pretty weak chess player.

So when IBM's Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov to become world chess
champion in 1996, it was using the EXACT SAME minimax algorithm. The
only difference is that computers were much faster in 1996. In the
1960s, the move tree was only about 3 levels deep, but in 1996, on an
IBM supercomputer, it was more like 15 levels deep.

So there's nothing mystical about a computer chess champion. In fact,
this was already recognized in the 1960s that one day the 1960s
computer program would be world champion on a sufficiently fast computers.

The Singularity is exactly the same. A computer making decisions to
win a war or invent a new widget can do so with the same minimax
algorithm, except that the tree will have to be much wider. This
is well understood, and the only question is how long it will be before
computers are fast enough. I estimate 2030.

This is the article that I wrote in 2005 on the Singularity, and
reposted in 2015:

** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 151228.htm

In that article, I described in detail the algorithm that will be used
to make computers smarter than humans. That algorithm could never
have been implemented in 2005 because computers were too slow. But by
2030, computers should be fast enough to implement it.

In recent years, the minimax algorithm has been buttressed by
additional algorithms. Pattern matching algorithms will provide a
kind of "intuition," where an AI robot can make decisions by comparing
the current situation to a large database of similar situations in the
past. Deep Learning algorithms are used to create the large database
to be used in pattern matching.

You mentioned quantum computing in a previous post. Quantum computing
is perfect for this application because a quantum computer should be
able to perform millions of pattern matching tests in a few
microseconds.

Once again, there's nothing mysterious, magical, or spiritual about
this. There's no need for God to breathe on an AI computer to give it
a soul. The algorithms are well understood today, and all that's
needed is a fast enough computer.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Technology biased against black patients runs rampant in hospitals

https://www.fastcompany.com/90422523/bi ... -hospitals


But this is the real elephant in room: Even laptops, robots, and algorithms are racist :shock: When even pocket calculators hate black folks and latinos, what can be done? This is the core issue. It's not whether A.I. will decide to destroy the human race in its entirety, but whether or not it will make black people ride in the back of the bus. I know I'm losing sleep over it.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

Guest wrote:Technology biased against black patients runs rampant in hospitals

https://www.fastcompany.com/90422523/bi ... -hospitals


But this is the real elephant in room: Even laptops, robots, and algorithms are racist :shock: When even pocket calculators hate black folks and latinos, what can be done? This is the core issue. It's not whether A.I. will decide to destroy the human race in its entirety, but whether or not it will make black people ride in the back of the bus. I know I'm losing sleep over it.
lol

But, in all honesty, this does show the limits of tech. Cold stats might lead to logical conclusions that are not politically correct. Then what? We keep altering the algos until they are PC? Why bother with technology if you can't use it efficiently and effectively? Political correctness is undoing everything.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Political correctness is undoing everything.
No, Amazon is.

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