Generational Dynamics World View News

[CH86]

...

I'm Astonished that...

So,.. DID you tend to play "Lawful/Evil" or "Lawful/Amoral" characters in D&D (or AD&D) back in the day, or what? Just gotta keep going for an answer to this question cuz it's really interesting.

..you're just so incredibly "lawful", 'though your "good-evil" dimensional position seems altogether mysterious.

When I was REALLY young I played Mario and Simpsons games, with Bart being an early role-model. When I was a bit older (around 10) I started reading history books during my spare time when I wasn't playing games, first WW1 Books then WW2 books. I Quickly appreciated Patton and Lemay's methods and generally had higher esteem for the Army, Marine corps and Airborne forces than for the Navy. Later on I gravitated away from books on US operations during the war and became more of an Ostfront fanboy.

[Guest]

Weather all over the world is threatening a global food crisis:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... -be-coming
This is likely a result of global warming...if you put more energy into a chaotic system like the atmosphere it goes bonkers. Global Warming is a crisi right now, not in 2100 or something.

Good, then the world will save American farmers and bone the Chinese even harder.

[John]

** 22-May-2019 World View: Britain's Theresa May on her last days as Brexit disaster continues

Andrea Leadsom, who is Theresa May's second in command as leader of
Britain's House of Commons, resigned from May's cabinet an hour ago.
Her complaint: She objects to the crass weakness shown by May in
making concessions to Labor in order to get a compromise Brexit deal.

Making the concessions was a waste of time anyway, since Labor leader
Jeremy Corbyn said that they weren't enough concessions, so he
rejected them as well.

The continuing Brexit disaster is a perfect example of what happens
when Gen-Xers are in charge of running things.

In the 1990s, the world was being run by World War II survivors,
mostly Silents. Those leaders knew how to negotiate and compromise.

Today, the world is being run by Generation-Xers, backed up by
millennial crazies like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (OAC), who do not
have the vaguest clue how to negotiate and compromise, and consider
knowledge and experience to be worthless baggage, rather than
something of value.

So we see this spectacle of Britain's House of Commons with everybody
shouting at everyone, with no compromise in sight, or even a
willingness to compromise.

The same kind of spectacle is occurring in Washington, where the
Democrats completely humiliated themselves by demanding a two-year
Russia collusion investigation that produced a report that didn't meet
their demands, so they're pursuing dozens more investigations to try
to get the conclusion they do want.

We've been reading for decades that SAT scores have been falling, and
there are news stories now that many students are graduating from
college without even basic skills. OAC, who is one of the stupidest
people around, is the poster child for one of these college graduates.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what happens when Gen-Xers and
Millennials are in charge. Many of them are good people, but most of
them appear to be complete idiots. No wonder the world is headed for
a world war.

As for Brexit, my expectation continues to be that Britain will leave
the EU with no deal, because that's the only option that doesn't
require anyone to agree with or compromise with anyone else.

Theresa May might resign today or this week, or she may wait until
week after next, given that Donald Trump will be visiting London next
week to commemorate WW II. Whoever replaces Theresa May will face
exactly the same problems -- Gen-Xers and Millennials who are
too dumb to know how to negotiate or compromise.

[mps92]

22-May-2019 In addition, European Parliament elections are starting tomorrow.

From the 23rd to the 26th, countries throughout Europe will vote in elections for the European Parliament, which occur every five years. Some people argue these elections are crucial, others say they are irrelevant.

Turnout is always low; somewhere between 30%-50% depending on the country. This makes upsets more likely to occur.

Right-wing parties are polling well throughout Europe. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is expected to get at least 35% of the vote, about as much as Conservative + Labour combined. Marine Le Pen's National Front party will likely win in France. Salvini's Lega Nord will likely win Italy. However, if turnout is low, and there is disproportionately high turnout among right-wing voters, these elections could be even better than anticipated.

However, the European Parliament does not have the typical powers that one would expect a parliament to have. Proposed EU legislation must go through it, but it doesn't have the power to propose, initiate, or repeal legislation. All of that is done by the European Council, which is entirely unelected. It is a very undemocratic system; the few people that are elected have little power. This is just another reason why the EU makes no sense, and why many argue these elections aren't that important.

However, I believe these elections are still important. If the mainline parties do badly, they might have to shift their policies rightward so they don't lose vote share in the next election. Maybe the right will scare them enough to get them to change.

Of course, the most important of these European elections is the one in Britain, which occurs tomorrow. There are three main groups:

Conservative + Labour (mainline parties). Set to lose bigly. Both of them claim to be making an honest effort to craft a leave agreement, but we all know they have no intention of leaving.

Leave bloc (Brexit Party + UK Independence Party) - firmly pro-leave. If no agreement, leave without a deal.

Remain bloc (Liberal Democrats, Change UK, the Green Party, and the Scottish and Welsh separatists). Firmly pro-remain; want second referendum.

What's most important to me isn't necessarily the vote share the Brexit Party secures, but rather the difference in vote share between the leave and remain blocs.

One more thing: prominent English nationalist and anti-Muslim activist Tommy Robinson is running as an independent in England's North West region. To my understanding, he'll need 12.5% of the vote share there to get in for sure, although less might get him in as well. This man is hated by the left. If he gets into the EU Parliament, expect all hell to break loose.

[John]

** 22-May-2019 Brexit

> Conservative + Labour (mainline parties). Set to lose bigly. Both
> of them claim to be making an honest effort to craft a leave
> agreement, but we all know they have no intention of
> leaving.

Do you really believe that? The BBC keeps saying that both the Tories
and Labor are each deeply split between Brexiteers and Remainers in
both parties.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

...

I'm Astonished that...

So,.. DID you tend to play "Lawful/Evil" or "Lawful/Amoral" characters in D&D (or AD&D) back in the day, or what? Just gotta keep going for an answer to this question cuz it's really interesting.

..you're just so incredibly "lawful", 'though your "good-evil" dimensional position seems altogether mysterious.

When I was REALLY young I played Mario and Simpsons games, with Bart being an early role-model. When I was a bit older (around 10) I started reading history books during my spare time when I wasn't playing games, first WW1 Books then WW2 books. I Quickly appreciated Patton and Lemay's methods and generally had higher esteem for the Army, Marine corps and Airborne forces than for the Navy. Later on I gravitated away from books on US operations during the war and became more of an Ostfront fanboy.

Did you, or have you, played any of the "strategy" games, from the old "Steve Jackson" board games to (also old) "Traveller" sci-fi board game, to the "modern" Paradox Computer games like: Crusader Kings, Hearts of Iron, Europa Universalis; or REALLY intricate games like "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations", and the like?

I can see you having a REALLY good time with the "Strategy" and "Grand Strategy" game category on Steam.

..maybe even Stellaris! Building your own galactic empire seems right up your alley! <chuckle!>

Anyway,.. I can definitely see your "follow the DAMNED rules!" attitude, which I do actually share in most ways, come through in your missives. In the old AD&D world I used to LOVE playing the "Chaotic/Amoral" alignment, especially as a half-orc/half-human rather disgusting sell-sword (merc) who simply could NOT put up with "weepy and prissy" group leaders (usually of elvish of half-elf origin) whom I tended to (stealthily) backstab in one way or another to get the dang JOB done so as to fill my purse with due haste!

Just thought I'd rant about something other than this obnoxious "political" crap that everyone is buried in these days.

Aloha, dude! <shaka nui!>

[mps92]

** 22-May-2019 Brexit

> Conservative + Labour (mainline parties). Set to lose bigly. Both
> of them claim to be making an honest effort to craft a leave
> agreement, but we all know they have no intention of
> leaving.

Do you really believe that? The BBC keeps saying that both the Tories
and Labor are each deeply split between Brexiteers and Remainers in
both parties.

First of all, the BBC is horrible. In terms of bias, it's worse than CNN, worse than New York Times, worse than NBC. Even worse, it's publicly funded by the British government. Even if you don't watch the BBC you have to pay to support it if you live in the UK.

For Tory politicians: before the referendum, a clear minority supported Brexit, even though the majority of Tory voters supported it. After Leave won, the politicians reluctantly went through with pro-Brexit policies.

With Labour, the situation is similar. Before the referendum, there were very, very few that supported Leave, even though at least 30% of Labour voters voted for it (with figures much higher in certain areas of the country). Again, some of them reluctantly support Brexit or else they'll be defeated in the next general election.

All those people that were so ardently pro-remain in either party... you really think they've changed their minds, and that's why there are so many more politicians that "support" Brexit nowadays? Of course not! They don't want to leave, but they must appear to make an honest effort so as to not get in trouble with their constituents.

The goal now for the majority of Tory MPs and the vast majority of Labour MPs is to buy time. The elderly were disproportionately more likely to vote Leave, so they're waiting for them to die off to gain the future electoral advantage. It's a common electoral strategy. The Scottish Nationalists are utilizing the same strategy; that's why they're waiting to have another independence referendum. If the Remainers wait long enough, the population will steadily become more pro-remain. That may not actually happen, but it's their only hope.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

...
The elderly were disproportionately more likely to vote Leave, so they're waiting for them to die off to gain the future electoral advantage. ...

That may not actually happen, but it's their only hope.

"A vote for SUK (Senicide UK Party) is a vote for YOUR FUTURE..!

SUK Harder..!

SUK For Tomorrow..!"

..where,.. they will eventually come for you, too.

[Guest]

If the Remainers wait long enough, the population will steadily become more pro-remain. That may not actually happen, but it's their only hope

It's called mass immigration.

[John]

** 21-May-2019 World View: Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks

Thanks to China's new Foreign Investment Law and the apparently
complete collapse of the US-China trade negotiations, new investment
opportunities are opening up in China's neighbors, especially
Vietnam, but care must be taken to reduce risks.

China passed its Foreign Investment Law in March. It allows any
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official to visit a foreign-owned
business and demand copies of all confidential company business
records and company data, as well as its source code and all other
intellectual property. Compliance is required.

US and Chinese trade negotiators had reached a 150-page written
agreement that removed all of these regulations.

US trade negotiators had thought that they had an agreement with the
Chinese negotiators that threw out all these onerous conditions. But
late in the evening, Friday May 3, Washington received the latest
edits from their Chinese counterparts that completely reneged on all
of Beijing's commitments. It's now believed that Beijing never had
any intention of honoring the its commitments, but expected that
political pressure would force President Donald Trump to accept the
watered-down agreement anyway. Instead, Trump angrily announced a new
rounds of tariffs and restrictions on Huawei. It's believed to be
quite a shock to Beijing that Trump is receiving wide support from the
international community and Democrats in Washington to stand up to
China, at least for the time being. China will not back down from its
trade model that uses subterfuge, extortion, and ignoring its
commitments and obligations, and Trump cannot back down because to do
so would be appeasement, and would do no good anyway.

And so the US-China trade negotiations have apparently completely
collapsed. China and the US have entered a period of tit-for-tat
escalations of trade restrictions, including higher tariffs and
blocking certain types of sales and business transactions.


**** Businesses shifting production to Vietnam

The collapse of the US-China trade talks is shaking up all of Asia,
and there are certainly going to be winners and losers. Vietnam is
hoping to be one of the major winners, as businesses look for
countries to which to shift their manufacturing out of China, in order
to avoid the US tariffs.

Vietnam also has a young, ambitious labor force, with two-thirds of
the population under age 35. Just as the West had its "baby boom"
after World War II, Vietnam had its own baby boom after the extremely
bloody civil war between North and South Vietnam in the 1970s,
and those babies are now of working age.

Furthermore, labor costs are a fraction of what they are in
neighboring countries. According to one estimate, labor costs in
Vietnam are half those of China, with the same worker productivity.

Because of the US-China trade dispute, many companies are considering
moving their manufacturing facilities from China to Vietnam, since
exports from Vietnam would not be subject to the US tariffs.

Vietnam was flat on its back after the 1970s wars, but the economy has
changed substantially in the last decade or so. For example, fifteen
years ago Vietnam imported almost all the food it consumed, but today
Vietnam is in the top two exporters of rice and coffee and exports a
lot of seafood worldwide, mainly to China and Hong Kong.


*** North vs South Vietnam


Those wanting to make more direct investments in Vietnam should
distinguish between the the North and the South, because they have
two very different cultures, and in many ways they're like
two different countries.

North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally populated by ethnic
Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was populated by
Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These ethnic
differences resulted in one crisis war after another over the
centuries.

The country was united by the Tay-Son rebellion (1771-1790), the most
celebrated military event in Vietnamese history, ending in a brilliant
battle in 1789 where the Vietnamese troops repelled a much larger
Chinese army. The North and South remained technically united through
the French colonial period, until Ho Chi Minh founded the Vietnam
Communist Party and drove the French out of North Vietnam in 1956.

The North and the South went through bloody civil war (America's
"Vietnam war") that united the two regions under the North Vietnamese
communists. However, although the war has ended, there's still a
great deal of animosity between the North and the South. Furthermore,
after the war ended, Vietnam followed up with wars against Cambodia,
and then a border war with China.

After the 1970s wars, the Communist government in Hanoi applied
Communist restrictions on businesses in the South, with the continued
use of wartime planning mechanisms that emphasized output targets and
paid little heed to production.

In 1986, Hanoi adopted the Doi Moi economic reforms, with a
significant effect on the south, making it the engine for Vietnam’s
industrial growth.


*** Moving to North Vietnam after the US-China negotiations

Companies moving their production facilities from China to Vietnam to
evade US tariffs are selecting sites for convenience, in North Vietnam
close to China's border. The Hanoi government is encouraging
investments from China, but North Vietnamese public in general is
opposed. Critics argue that Chinese projects exploit cheap labor and
minerals, while polluting the environment and landing the locals in
debt.

Vietnamese hostility toward China is great for a number of reasons.
In the late 1970s, after the Vietnam civil war, there was an extremely
bloody border war between China and Vietnam that left a lot of dead
but was otherwise inconclusive. More important, China has illegally
annexed the South China Sea, including regions that historically
belonged to Vietnam. China's navy has even attacked Vietnamese
fishing boats in Vietnam's own territorial waters.

In 2014, thousands of anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam, furious over
China's installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea
historically claimed by Vietnam, turned violent and torched a number
of factories in a southern Vietnam industrial park. It was Chinese
factories that were the nominal targets, but the angry mob also
attacked properties owned by Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.

Public opposition last year to Chinese investments became focused when
thousands of people filled the streets of several major cities across
Vietnam in June, 2018. They were protesting a proposal to create
three "economic zones" which would give special business and trade
privileges to foreign investors. They were particularly objecting to
a proposal to allow 99 year leases by foreign investors, which allow
the Chinese to set up Chinese enclaves that would remain forever. The
Vietnamese public strongly opposed the economic zones. So far, public
pressure has prevented the Communist government in Hanoi from gaining
approval of the economic zones.


*** Investing in South Vietnam -- Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC or Saigon)

Those who wish to invest in South Vietnam should focus on the city of
Saigon, which was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City or HCMC by the
Communists after the 1970s civil war. Last year HCMC attracted
foreign investment of over $7 billion, 22% of the country’s total.

HCMC is experiencing a major real estate boom, thanks to low property
prices. However, the disproportionate investment in real estate is
raising concerns. Foreign investment money is pouring into Saigon for
real estate, but not so much for industries.

During the first four months of 2019, real estate accounted
for 46.8% of foreign investment, with little going for
industries such as manufacturing or agricultural processing.

In response, the HCMC People's Committee chairman Le Thanh Liem has
called for $53.8 billion in foreign invesments, focusing on nine areas,
including transport, infrastructure, agriculture, commerce-service,
education, and healthcare. 1,000 hectares of land would be earmarked
for industrial purposes to attract investors.


--- Sources:

-- Vietnam's Booming Economy Offers Investment Opportunities
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/18 ... ities.aspx
(Morningstar, 22-Feb-2019)

-- Industries in Vietnam
http://factsanddetails.com/southeast-as ... -3477.html
(Facts and Details, 2014)

-- Top 4 ETFs for Investing in Vietnam
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... tnam-etfs/
(Investopedia, 29-Apr-2019)

-- How Will Foreign Investment Change Vietnam’s Economy?
https://www.voanews.com/a/how-will-fore ... 46702.html
(VOA, 25-Mar-2019)

-- New China Foreign Investment Law: Not Good News
https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/04/ne ... -news.html
(China Law, 23-Apr-2019)

-- Saigon / HCMC / Chinese Get Chances to Invest in Vietnam Despite
Political Rifts
https://www.voanews.com/a/vietnam-and-c ... 03661.html
(VOA, 17-Dec-2018)

-- Saigon /HCMC / Vietnam, with its low property prices, has become a
new treasure hunting ground for Hong Kong and China buyers
https://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong ... w-treasure
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 23-May-2019)

-- Saigon / HCMC / Big real estate developments and infrastructure
plans make Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam’s most lively city
https://www.webuildvalue.com/en/reporta ... aigon.html
(We Build Value, 13-Feb-2019)

-- Growth quality concerns over disproportionate investment in Saigon
real estate
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/i ... 21792.html
(Vietnam Express, 13-May-2019)

-- HCMC wants $54 billion foreign investment
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/e ... 20629.html
(Vietnam Express, 8-May-2019)

-- Saigon / HCMC / The Hot New Market for Luxury Property Is Vietnam
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ty-markets
(Bloomberg, 18-Feb-2019)

-- How can Vietnam avoid becoming China’s dirty industrial backyard?
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economic ... l-backyard
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-May-2019)

-- The spoils of trade war: Asia’s winners and losers in US-China
clash
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolit ... hina-clash
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 28-May-2019)

-- FAQs About The Special Economic Zones and Vietnam’s SEZ Draft Bill
https://www.thevietnamese.org/2018/08/f ... raft-bill/
(The Vietnamese, 28-Aug-2018)

-- Public criticism pressures Vietnam to back down on new economic
zones
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/s ... omic-zones
(China Dialog, 26-Mar-2019)