Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

mps92 wrote:
Deus Vult wrote: No I don't. Because the Taiwanese would fight like tigers, and Donald Trump is not a coward. And neither am I.
Trump would gladly defend Taiwan, but I can't say the same about the rest of the US government or the majority of the American populace. If Trump loses in 2020 then Taiwan's in big trouble, since the Democrats don't seem to think China presents much of a threat. In addition, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party (which appears to be dictating more and more these days) is antiwar beyond reason.
I think the DEMS are pro-war.

I am also grossly unimpressed with the American military's officer corps. The qualified and decent people that I attended ______ with retired as Majors and LTCs. The WORST officers have advanced higher, some much higher. The officer corps is a wreck. I despair at what I see leading the US military. I do not think that an army lead by defacto politicians can win a war. I think he next world war might be a war without a winner, only two defeated powers and a chaotic power vacuum.

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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4181
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

World War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke

IIRC, the only reason that high school student had the chance to assassinate the Archduke was because the Archduke's chauffeur made a wrong turn.


Trump would gladly defend Taiwan, but I can't say the same about the rest of the US government or the majority of the American populace. If Trump loses in 2020 then Taiwan's in big trouble, since the Democrats don't seem to think China presents much of a threat. In addition, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party (which appears to be dictating more and more these days) is antiwar beyond reason.

Yes, mps92, this will prevent a war between China and America, just as the Kellog-Briand Pact and the Oxford Oath prevented the outbreak of a Second Great War in 1939.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

The American military can't even defeat the Taliban. How will it be able to defeat the Chinese?

America will be too busy defending their one -sided marriage partner Israel against Iran to notice Taiwan and South Korea burning to the ground.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
mps92 wrote:
Deus Vult wrote: No I don't. Because the Taiwanese would fight like tigers, and Donald Trump is not a coward. And neither am I.
Trump would gladly defend Taiwan, but I can't say the same about the rest of the US government or the majority of the American populace. If Trump loses in 2020 then Taiwan's in big trouble, since the Democrats don't seem to think China presents much of a threat. In addition, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party (which appears to be dictating more and more these days) is antiwar beyond reason.
I think the DEMS are pro-war.

I am also grossly unimpressed with the American military's officer corps. The qualified and decent people that I attended ______ with retired as Majors and LTCs. The WORST officers have advanced higher, some much higher. The officer corps is a wreck. I despair at what I see leading the US military. I do not think that an army lead by defacto politicians can win a war. I think he next world war might be a war without a winner, only two defeated powers and a chaotic power vacuum.
John wrote years ago that in today's society gangsters are considered good men and good men are treated like gangsters. America is filled with weasels. These are the kind of creatures that always appear at the end of country's existence, just before the fall. I'm not surprised to see the parade of vermin that rules America and the West.

Western Civilization has run its course. Now we are a depleted people and culture. There is nothing left for us to do but die. Unfortunately, we will be replaced by barbarians.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** Regeneracy
mps92 wrote: > I don't know John, I think that quote from Luo Yuan was pretty
> accurate. I think this nation is terrified of taking
> casualties. The modern US military fights every war with the most
> extreme caution I've ever seen from any army in history. The
> generals are scared of any casualties, but especially scared of
> heavy casualties. Even if heavy casualties resulted in worthwhile
> victories, I just don't see the US going to war with China over
> Taiwan. I think Americans would be very willing to defend Japan,
> and even South Korea. But not Taiwan.

> Here's the scenario that's in my mind: the US thwarts an initial
> Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese gather reinforcements and
> attack again, and then again. Eventually, it becomes too costly
> for the US. We abandon the fight, and Taiwan capitulates. China
> declares that it is "satisfied" as a world power. The US strikes
> some sort of BS deal with China, wherein China assures the US that
> the Taiwanese will be treated just like normal Chinese people, or
> perhaps even give them the right to emigrate to another
> country. (Obviously they don't stick to this.)

> I think this is a very plausible scenario. Why don't you?
The is the "regeneracy" concept in generational theory, which refers
to the regeneration of civic unity for the first time since the end of
the preceding crisis war.

The country was bitterly divided against FDR, but they united behind
him after the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:** Regeneracy
mps92 wrote: > I don't know John, I think that quote from Luo Yuan was pretty
> accurate. I think this nation is terrified of taking
> casualties. The modern US military fights every war with the most
> extreme caution I've ever seen from any army in history. The
> generals are scared of any casualties, but especially scared of
> heavy casualties. Even if heavy casualties resulted in worthwhile
> victories, I just don't see the US going to war with China over
> Taiwan. I think Americans would be very willing to defend Japan,
> and even South Korea. But not Taiwan.

> Here's the scenario that's in my mind: the US thwarts an initial
> Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese gather reinforcements and
> attack again, and then again. Eventually, it becomes too costly
> for the US. We abandon the fight, and Taiwan capitulates. China
> declares that it is "satisfied" as a world power. The US strikes
> some sort of BS deal with China, wherein China assures the US that
> the Taiwanese will be treated just like normal Chinese people, or
> perhaps even give them the right to emigrate to another
> country. (Obviously they don't stick to this.)

> I think this is a very plausible scenario. Why don't you?
The is the "regeneracy" concept in generational theory, which refers
to the regeneration of civic unity for the first time since the end of
the preceding crisis war.

The country was bitterly divided against FDR, but they united behind
him after the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.
Unless this is 1453. The Byzantines were defeated and enslaved, and we will be too.


I wish I could agree with you, John. I really do.

josa0512
Posts: 46
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:56 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by josa0512 »

John,

Here is an article which supports your theory that China is one day going to use backdoor technology to attack the U.S.

https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... o-hackers/

ScratInTheHat
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:47 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by ScratInTheHat »

Guest wrote:
John wrote:** Regeneracy
mps92 wrote: > I don't know John, I think that quote from Luo Yuan was pretty
> accurate. I think this nation is terrified of taking
> casualties. The modern US military fights every war with the most
> extreme caution I've ever seen from any army in history. The
> generals are scared of any casualties, but especially scared of
> heavy casualties. Even if heavy casualties resulted in worthwhile
> victories, I just don't see the US going to war with China over
> Taiwan. I think Americans would be very willing to defend Japan,
> and even South Korea. But not Taiwan.

> Here's the scenario that's in my mind: the US thwarts an initial
> Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese gather reinforcements and
> attack again, and then again. Eventually, it becomes too costly
> for the US. We abandon the fight, and Taiwan capitulates. China
> declares that it is "satisfied" as a world power. The US strikes
> some sort of BS deal with China, wherein China assures the US that
> the Taiwanese will be treated just like normal Chinese people, or
> perhaps even give them the right to emigrate to another
> country. (Obviously they don't stick to this.)

> I think this is a very plausible scenario. Why don't you?
The is the "regeneracy" concept in generational theory, which refers
to the regeneration of civic unity for the first time since the end of
the preceding crisis war.

The country was bitterly divided against FDR, but they united behind
him after the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.
Unless this is 1453. The Byzantines were defeated and enslaved, and we will be too.


I wish I could agree with you, John. I really do.
The Byzantines didn’t have the technology to spread Greek Fire over the entire Ottoman Empire in less than thirty minutes even if 70% of their forces were whipped out. They had lost territory for 100s of years to get bottled up in one city relying on walls that were built 100s of years before. The US is nowhere near being in the position the Byzantines were in at their fall. The US is still the sleeping giant that Yamamoto feared.

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

John wrote:** Regeneracy

The is the "regeneracy" concept in generational theory, which refers
to the regeneration of civic unity for the first time since the end of
the preceding crisis war.

The country was bitterly divided against FDR, but they united behind
him after the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March.

Exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.
The United States will not unify on a grand scale, if and when China (or whoever) decides to challenge the US in a way that presents an existential threat. The assumptions John makes are similar to some fund manager or a weatherman who says, "Tomorrow will look much the same as today." The flaw in Generational Theory - which extends from Fourth Turning is that the US population is homogeneous and all on the same generational timeline. I know John has said his version corrects the flaws, but I see no evidence that this major problem is addressed. It sounds like, "Well that's the way it's always been, so next time will be too."

The tens of millions of people from dozens of 3rd World countries, from Mexico, South & Central America, China, Somalia, Caribbean, African and Muslim countries, Eastern Europe, you name it - will absolutely not find common cause with white Westerners, nor will they lay their lives on the line, unite behind a person and peoples they have nothing in common with, who care nothing of the Western concepts of law, order, human rights, jurisprudence, or any other aspect of Western culture other than the things they can extract from it.

These tens of millions cannot be compared to the moderately disparate European populations who migrated to the US prior to WWII. Those Irish, Italian and Germans were able to unite, all coming from a small geographic European theater. But today, the differences are too great and the racial hatreds too wide. The ethnic hatreds Mexicans have for Blacks, the ethnic hatreds Koreans also have for Blacks will not be forgotten so that they might enter a marriage of convenience, join whitey, and defeat the existential threat - to save the Red White and Blue. How hilarious.

In addition, those newly arrived immigrants can simply opt out of the fighting; they will find any excuse or means to stay on the sidelines. If necessary they can always relocate out of harm's way to their source country or nearby countries such as Canada or Mexico. They can decline on religious grounds as well.

It is clearly ludicrous to imagine some 20-40 million Mexicans, lining up in recruiting stations to go to battle against China in order to protect the United States of America and apple pie and The Donald. It is really laughable. However, they just might feast on the corpse that remains of the former US. Mexico may also use the opportunity to annex southern parts of the US, using the excuse of "protecting their peoples" from racist whitey. I don't know if you're aware, but Mexicans culturally and viscerally believe that the territories they lost in the Mexican-American War will someday be reclaimed. Mexican visitors to the Alamo spit on the monument. I know. I have seen the HUGE volumes of spit on the plaques there. The Aztlan is in their cultural DNA.

The problem extends beyond recent immigrants. It includes disaffected whites, who today are vilified and reviled. Many already believe the West is in irreversible decline and see no reason to die in order to preserve something that will be inherited by foreign ingrates and gangsters.

MS-13 gang members enter US armed forces to gain weapons and tactics experience for the express purpose of forming dangerous race-based militias. Those gang-bangers will not do the same when the chance of death rises as it does during world wars - and when they face the prospect of being turned into hamburger, the only reward being PTSD and missing limbs, where they'd be useless in a criminal gang.

Black gangsters from the hood will absolutely not be making beelines to recruiting stations to enter the hamburger mill to save Yankee Doodle; they've been raised from birth being taught White America is racist and seeks to marginalize them.

You have a very big problem to overcome here: Belief in the 'Magic Dirt Theory', upon which this relies, complete lack of understanding the current state of US cultural divide, and complete lack of understanding of the deeply held belief Mexicans have that the southern US belongs to them.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Burner Prime wrote:
John wrote:** Regeneracy

The is the "regeneracy" concept in ...
The United States will not unify on a grand scale, if and when ...
Gotta love them racists! <chuckle!>

..we'll just have to wait and see how well scum like this (aka Burner et ilk) make out when they/he (probably "he") decides to get on the kill-'em-all bandwagon when he (delusionally) sees the signal to "go for it!".

It's highly more likely that these goofballs will show their usual impatience, and simply become mass murderers of their neighbors.

My guess in THIS case, as regards Burner, is that he (probably "he") has more sense and less "courage" to "go off", and will simply smolder like the punk meant to trigger the old cannons that's been abandoned on the battlefield that finds its way into a pool of mud.

As to his points (probably "his"), his (probably "his") basic premise is that his (probably "his") "Magic Blood Theory" will nullify the (supposed) "Magic Dirt Theory".

Everyone that subscribes to the "Magic Blood Theory", which is just another name for "Identity Polity Supremacist" Theory (the "Racial Supremacist" attitude), will be squashed like bugs by the vast majority of the population (with the help of the various government entities) very shortly after the "regeneracy" event.

..and that "squashing" will be (a part of the) fuel for the "enthusiasm" that strengthens the regeneracy.

It won't matter which "blood" you go by. You will be squashed by the unified surge, if you don't form up in unity against the Great Opposition.

Burner is quite correct in veritably ALL of his (probably "his") observations of the activities of the various "Supremacists".

..he (probably "he") just doesn't seem to realize that he's (probably "he's") one of the "to be squashed supremacists".

Poor fellow (probably "fellow", although "fellow" may be non-gender specific, so "fellow" may be applicable in any case).

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