Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Tom,

Many of these articles are written with an almost over the top pro-Russian slant. I think it is important to sift through, find facts, and dismiss the propaganda.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

John wrote:** 22-Mar-2019 Trump cancels new North Korea sanctions

President Donald Trump startled everyone again this afternoon with a
new tweet:
> @realDonaldTrump It was announced today by the U.S. Treasury that
> additional large scale Sanctions would be added to those already
> existing Sanctions on North Korea. I have today ordered the
> withdrawal of those additional Sanctions! 1:22 PM - 22 Mar
> 2019
The BBC says that everyone in Washington was caught completely by
surprise.

Sarah Sanders explained it as follows: "President Trump likes Chairman
Kim and he doesn't think these sanctions will be necessary."
I think this is actually good negotiating. He went in one direction in walking out of the last summit. Now he is going in the other direction. Hoping to get NKorea to make a similar adjustment. I don't view this as incoherence at all.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Navigator wrote: > I think this is actually good negotiating. He went in one
> direction in walking out of the last summit. Now he is going in
> the other direction. Hoping to get NKorea to make a similar
> adjustment. I don't view this as incoherence at all.
I agree. It's a coherent policy of planned incoherence, which totally
baffles the media, the politicians, and the international community,
especially when done by tweet. The same is true of Trump's other
announcement yesterday, that he would favor giving Israel sovereignty
over Golan.

Planned incoherence breaks the mold and prevents old patterns from
leading to war, but it can have unexpected consequences that lead to
the same war by means of different scenarios.

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Three famines threaten millions of deaths:
https://www.oxfam.org/en/emergencies/fa ... ger-crisis
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:Tom,

Many of these articles are written with an almost over the top pro-Russian slant. I think it is important to sift through, find facts, and dismiss the propaganda.
Tom's linked articles were probably written with the Kremlin's talking points as their only reference.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 24-Mar-2019 Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, 1958-60

As I continue working on my book on China and Japan, which
is now "very close" to completion, and will be done "soon, very
soon," I though it would be interesting to post this material
on Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, which is almost forgotten
in the West, but which is highly relevant to China today.

Mao Zedong was a very charismatic figure who apparently was able to
exert almost total control of the population in the 1950s. However,
Mao's time as leader cannot be described as anything short of a
disaster for China and its people. Xi Jinping can whine and moan
about unequal treaties, but no unequal treaties did any harm compared
to the massive destruction wrought by Mao's policies.

Millions of people died from execution even in the "good times" of
Mao's leadership, but no period was worse than the Great Leap Forward,
during which some 20 to 30 million people died of starvation in a
man-made famine.

It's really very hard to explain what happened in the Great Leap
Forward in any rational way, because the plan was insane, as was Mao
himself. Mao was crazed with determination to prove that Communism
work, and the "Great Leap Forward" was devised to leap China forward
ahead of the capitalist countries.

Mao's plan to implement "true" communism in China began in 1958 with
the Great Leap Forward. Here's a summary of how the program
worked:
  • 500,000,000 peasants were taken out of their individual homes
    and put into communes, creating a massive human work force. The
    workers were organized along military lines of companies, battalions,
    and brigades. Each person's activities were rigidly supervised.
  • The family unit was dismantled. Communes were completely
    segregated, with children, wives and husbands all living in separate
    barracks and working in separate battalions. Communal living was
    emphasized by eating, sleeping, and working in teams. Husbands and
    wives were allowed to be alone only at certain times of the month and
    only for brief periods. (This was also a birth control
    technique.)
  • All workers took part in ideological training sessions, to provide
    for ideological training of the Chinese masses.
It's completely beyond me how anyone could ever believe that something
like this could ever work, and many people in the West during the 60s
and 70s idolized Mao and considered China to be a "people's paradise."
It shows how ideology can turn ordinary, educated people into complete
idiots. What this experience shows is what a fanatical and desperate
maniac Mao was to do something so disastrous.

Mao's stipulated purpose was to mobilize the entire population to
transform China into a socialist powerhouse -- producing both food and
industrial goods -- much faster than might otherwise be possible.
This would be both a national triumph and an ideological triumph,
proving to the world that socialism could triumph over capitalism.

First, Mao dismantled the Central Statistical Bureau, the organization
responsible for keeping track of all the economic activity going on in
the country. As a result, China's leadership had no real idea whether
the Great Leap Forward was meeting its objectives or not. This gives
the sense that Mao was playing the part of a desperate gambler who had
no idea what he was doing, but closed his eyes and rolled the dice.


Early in 1959, and again in July 1959, officials in Mao's government
had begun to see that the program was failing. Their objections were
rewarded with punishment. Mao was determined to follow his
ideological course, no matter what else happened. The result
was disaster.

The individual peasants and managers were required to report the size
of the crop harvests up the line to the central government, but there
was no way to guarantee that the reports were accurate.

On the one hand, there was no economic incentive for the farmers and
managers to provide accurate reports, since everyone in a socialist
society is paid the same ("according to his need").

On the other hand, there was no independent check of the crop harvest
estimates. If the population had been much smaller, then the central
government might have been able to send out enough bureaucrats to
check the reports, or at least do spot checks. But with over a
billion peasants, no such meaningful checks were possible.

For the farmers and managers themselves, there was plenty of
political incentive to overreport the crop harvest results.

As a result, even though actual crop yield in 1959 was a little
smaller than it had been in 1958, the crop reports added up to an
enormous increase in production, more than a doubling of output.

By the time that Chairman Mao was finally ready to accept the
situation, it was too late. There was too little food to feed
everyone, and tens of millions died of starvation.

*** Mao's justifications for the Great Leap Forward

Mao pursued the insane Great Leap Forward with the fervor of a
religious maniac, even dismantling the Central Statistical Bureau,
and then ignoring bad news reports for months (and probably
executing anyone who was responsible for the bad news reports).

We don't know all of Mao's justifications, except for the obvious one
to try to prove the superiority of Communism. But he could have tried
to prove the superiority of Communism in many other ways, without this
insane, disastrous plan.

So even though we can't be sure what justifications Mao gave for his
fanaticism, it's worthwhile to speculate on them, because it's pretty
clear that Xi Jinping and today's CCP leaders are equally fanatical,
and the same justifications are being used today.

Mao certainly would have been aware of the Boxer rebellion 68 years
earlier, which failed but had the goal of ejecting foreign traders.
Now, in the 1950s, China was still dependent on foreign trade.

Furthermore, China had to be saved by Woodrow Wilson and America after
the Versailles betrayal, following World War I.

Then China had to be saved by American-led forces to eject Japanese
conquerors in China during World War II.

So China was repeatedly dependent on other nations, especially Western
nations, for its own physical and economic survival. This must have
infuriated a fanatic like Mao, especially after he had committed mass
murder and atrocities during China's civil war, and would not hesitate
to do so again.

We can't discuss Mao's motivations without mentioning the racist
belief that Chinese were racially superior to any other race on the
planet. Mao of course would have been aware of Adolf Hitler's view
that German Aryans were the Master Race, and racially superior to any
other race on the planet.

But in comparing Hitler's racist views to the racist views of Chinese,
we have to mention that Hitler's Master Race view were not very old,
and were only part of the German culture for a few years or decades,
and so could be forgotten easily after the war. But China's racist
views go back three millennia -- to the Xia and Zhang dynasties, and
to Confucius and to Sun Tzu's Art of War. So Mao, like all Chinese,
was imbued with this Chinese Master Race philosophy, and with all the
various stuff that goes with it, like the Yellow Emperor and the
Mandate from Heaven.

Next, Mao had, of course, fresh memories of the atrocities committed
by the Japanese, and undoubtedly was planning China's revenge even at
that time. He may even have believed that he would lose the Mandate
from Heaven if he didn't quickly attack the Japanese and get revenge.

And so, putting all this together, Mao's fanaticism in pursuing the
Great Leap Forward was a desperate attempt to instantaneously create
a huge economic windfall that he could use to create a military and
attack Japan, and get revenge, and thereby keep the Mandate from
Heaven.

As I said, this is all somewhat speculative, but we do know that all
of these motivations are quite real, and remain real today, and we
also know that Mao pursued a desperate, disastrous and fanatical
policy in the Great Leap Forward, and so it's reasonable to connect
the dots between the two.

What's remarkable is that things have not changed a bit
today:
  • Xi Jinping has amended China's constitution so that he's
    Dictator for Life, just like Mao.
  • Xi Jinping is publishing the "Thoughts of Xi," just like
    the Little Red Book and the "Thoughts of Mao."
  • Xi Jinping is pursuing a fanatical and maniacal policy in East
    Turkistan (Xinjiang province) by building huge concentration camps and
    crematoria and sending millions of Uighurs into them, for as minor a
    "crime" as growing a beard.
  • Xi Jinping is pursuing racially violent policies against
    the Tibetans who, like the Uighurs, are considered barbarians
    and racially inferior to the Chinese Master Race -- black
    hair, brown eyes, yellow skin.
  • Xi Jinping is pursuing a fanatical cult of personality,
    like Mao's, by violently crushing any religious beliefs,
    including Buddhism, Christianity, and Islam, that involve
    praying to some other god besides Xi himself.
  • The vitriolic hatred of the Japanese, and desire for revenge
    for Japanese WW II atrocities are as strong as ever.
  • Xi Jinping is preparing to succeed where Mao failed -- by
    getting revenge against the Japanese.
Many people believe that the Chinese want to take over the world -- to
gain "hegemonic dominance" over America and the West. But that's
delusional, and the Chinese know it. In fact, the Chinese may even
want people to believe that, as a smokescreen, just as everything else
the Chinese say is a smokescreen to mislead people.

Saying that the Chinese "want hegemonic dominance" is like saying that
someone "wants" to sleep with Beyoncé. We all want things in our
dreams, but we know that they're just dreams.

You can't look at the Chinese character in any obvious, rational
manner. First of all, "hegemonic dominance" is not in the Chinese
character, and not something they would even want. The Chinese can't
even govern themselves, let alone govern colonies. Even Korea, which
has been dominated by China for centuries, was never a colony, but
only a vassal.

There is only one motive driving the Chinese that will never disappear
-- a vitriolic all-consuming uncontrollable hatred for the Japanese
and an overwhelming and uncontrollable desire for revenge. That
all-consuming hatred will not be quenched until they've gotten that
revenge. Nothing else will matter, until the very last day of the
war, and I suspect that the Japanese know it as well as the Chinese
know it, even though they don't want to talk about it.

And Xi Jinping knows that unless he achieves that revenge, he will
lose the Mandate from Heaven, and he's willing to pursue any
fanatical, desperate policy to achieve it.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I remember reading about how shortly after Mao took over China, families were ordered to build and operate small scale iron foundries. They were then supposed to produce iron. They tried, but it was low quality crap.

So to "produce iron" they started just melting down their cooking and farming implements. So they actually put themselves into worse poverty.

Beyond idiotic.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

John,

I think you are getting at a core truth. The fanatics, like Mao, Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and so on, view their ideology as a religion. They believe it is "perfect", and beyond dispute.

So far beyond dispute that when anything happens to show that it might not be perfect, then the practitioners are to blame for their "lack of fervor". Or, worse yet, that "counter-revolutionaries" are actively sabotaging what the fanatics believe is a perfect system. So they have to root out and execute those sabotaging the system or the practitioners with "lack of fervor".

I read an exceptional book on Stalinist Russia about 15 years ago. This helped me understand where purges and the like came from, which otherwise I would have just thought of as lunacy, idiocy. These leaders, Mao, Lenin, Hitler, Stalin and the like, think that they are leading some kind of "true religion" and that they are the "saviors" of their people and possibly the world. It is delusion of the highest order. And it leads to genocide.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 24-Mar-2019 Religious ferver

Navigator wrote: > I think you are getting at a core truth. The fanatics, like Mao,
> Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and so on, view their ideology as a
> religion. They believe it is "perfect", and beyond dispute.

> So far beyond dispute that when anything happens to show that it
> might not be perfect, then the practitioners are to blame for
> their "lack of fervor". Or, worse yet, that
> "counter-revolutionaries" are actively sabotaging what the
> fanatics believe is a perfect system. So they have to root out
> and execute those sabotaging the system or the practitioners with
> "lack of fervor".

> I read an exceptional book on Stalinist Russia about 15 years
> ago. This helped me understand where purges and the like came
> from, which otherwise I would have just thought of as lunacy,
> idiocy. These leaders, Mao, Lenin, Hitler, Stalin and the like,
> think that they are leading some kind of "true religion" and that
> they are the "saviors" of their people and possibly the world. It
> is delusion of the highest order. And it leads to
> genocide.

The funny thing is that I don't think that I've shown that at all,
in the case of Mao. In the case of Mao, what I've shown is that
Communism is just a talking point. The real motivation is revenge.
And that's true today, with Xi Jinping.

Many people blame war on religion -- that religious fervor
causes war. Christopher Hitchens, whom I wrote about several times,
made a very compelling argument, claiming that if religion could
be abolished, then war would be abolished.

I've made the opposite point that -- not that "religion causes
war," but that "war causes religion." A nation or society decides
to launch a war for whatever reason -- resources, Lebensraum,
revenge, or whatever -- and then the leaders of that nation or society
use religion as an excuse. If you want to justify trying to exterminate
another group, then the justification has to be acceptable to the
public. "Kill the infidels" is more understandable to the public
because so many wars in history have been framed that way -- Sunnis
vs Shias, Protestants vs Catholics. That's more acceptable than
saying "we want to exterminate them because we hate them."

So Mao justified the Great Leap Forward by a Communist ideology, when
his realy motivation was that he hated the Japanese and wanted to
exterminate them.

Hitler and Mao had another point of similarity -- they were both
looking for revenge because they were humiliated by the Versailles
Treaty.

Xi Jinping carries the same hatred for the Japanese, and has
also expressed a desire for revenge for the Opium Wars.

Last year, I heard a Russian official interviewed on the BBC claim
that Russia has been humiliated continuously by the West for two
centuries. I assume that this must have referred to Napoleon's
invasion.

So I don't look at Communism as a cause for war. I look
for revenge and hatred as the motivator, and Communism as
the excuse.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests