10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China threat

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China threat

Postby John » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:43 am

10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China


China threatens retaliation if US implements ARIA in Taiwan

** 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190110.htm#e190110



Contents:
US military focuses on China and 'Indo-Pacific' region
Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
China threatens retaliation if US implements ARIA in Taiwan


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, ARIA,
Indo-Pacific region, Patrick Shanahan, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Mike Pence, Taiwan,
Xi Jinping

Silent Guest 1

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby Silent Guest 1 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:21 am

John, I do not agree with your compromise premise. Compromise could only be be based on mutual intent and word definitions. Neither of those exist in most nations neither domestically nor internationally.
Until the Trump Presidency, the world functioned on Chamberlain/barry apology for excellence tours and give aways. Look at the results. Yellow Vests are the resurgence, and in France's case, emergence, of determined nationalism. What civilized person of sane mind chooses to be over run by 3rd worlders leaving feces trails ss they plunder? We have diseased hordes demanding entrance to American-provided free stuff. Get a grip!
China's Taiwan crusade is no different than Bush/Blair's "bringing democracy" to Iraq. Make no mistake, not all post-WWII generations are gaming self-absorbed illiterate brats. Keep in mind that Cows Have Guns.

John
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby John » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:26 am

Whatever, but the alternative to compromise is war.


Guest

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby Guest » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:18 pm

zzazz wrote:Still no singularity.


Are you expecting one?

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:39 pm

John wrote:Whatever, but the alternative to compromise is war.


..and war it shall be.

But not for a few more years. We (the world) "just ain't ripe yet".

And I fully support a "Make the Pacific Great for Little Teeny Boats Again!" campaign (MPGLTA!).

Muppgulta..!! Yell it OUT, everybody! Muppgulta..!!

Guest

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby Guest » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:36 pm

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
John wrote:Whatever, but the alternative to compromise is war.


..and war it shall be.

But not for a few more years. We (the world) "just ain't ripe yet".



I wouldn't be so sure about that. I work for a defense contractor in Asia and we are flooded with orders for our state of the art systems. Asia has been gearing up for war for the last decade. We are working 24/7, and we can barely keep up. Asia is ripe for war today. Everyone I know in this industry is struggling to fill orders from across Asia. Asia is on the brink of war. I just hope I can time my escape just right.

And no. I don't feel guilty about working in this industry. You have to make hay while the Sun shines.

John
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby John » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:32 pm

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> ..and war it shall be.

> But not for a few more years. We (the world) "just ain't ripe
> yet".


This is an interesting statement because you don't tell what
you mean by "ripe."

So I'm going to assume that you mean that some sequential process
has not yet occurred that leads to war in an "organized" way,
such as the steps that led to Britain's war on the Nazis.

But some wars start in a very "disorganized" way. I often point to
the 2006 was between Israel and Hezbollah which was completely
unexpected. Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, and within four
hours, Israel attacked Hezbollah in a war with no plan and no
objective. The war was a total disaster for both Israel and Lebanon.
In my opinion, the only reason that it didn't lead to a full-scale war
is because Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era.

World War II in Europe may have started in an organized way, but World
War II in Asia began in a completely disorganized way.

I'm writing a book on China, and I wrote about this phenomenon. The
following is from the current draft:

> **** Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) - World War II in Asia

> Westerners think of World War II as having started in September
> 1939, with the Nazi invasion of Poland. But the early conflicts
> of World War II were well under way before Hitler invaded anyone.
> Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931, and Italy invaded Ethiopia in
> 1935. World War II in Asia clearly began with the Sino-Japanese
> War (1937-45).

>
> **** Marco Polo Incident (July 7-9, 1937) and Sino-Japanese War

> The Marco Polo Incident is highly relevant to today's world,
> because it shows how a trivial misunderstanding could start World
> War III today.

> In 1937, both China and Japan were deep into generational Crisis
> eras, their previous crisis wars having climaxed in 73 and 69
> years, respectively. This isn't an abstract concept. What it
> means is that the traumatized people who had survived the horrors
> of the previous crisis war were all gone. They had spent their
> entire lives trying to make sure that nothing so horrible ever
> happens again, but now they were gone, and there was nobody left
> who felt the same way.

> Many of the details of the Marco Polo Incident are trivial, but
> these trivial details started World War II in Asia, so they're
> worth reviewing because of lessons that apply to today's world.

> The Marco Polo Bridge is located about 15 km southwest of Beijing,
> and has that name because the original bridge, constructed in
> 1192, is given that name because the 13th century Italian Silk
> Road trader, Marco Polo, praised the bridge.

> Japan had a small number of troops near the bridge to provide
> protection for a Japanese diplomatic legation. Late on July 7,
> 1937, the Japanese performed a roll call of their troops, and one
> soldier, Private Shimura Kikujiro, was missing. According to
> documents released by the Japanese in 2013, Kikujiro had snuck off
> into the woods during the training exercise for an unauthorized
> bathroom break, but got lost trying to find his way back. By the
> time he did get back, the roll call had been performed.

> The Japanese assumed the worst: That Kikujiro had been abducted by
> the Chinese from a small military camp in the town of Wanping, at
> the end of the Macro Polo Bridge. The Japanese requested
> permission from the local Chinese to enter Wanping and search for
> Kikujiro. The Chinese refused.

> It's worth noting in passing that abductions are a big part of the
> news today. The Chinese particularly perform abductions not only
> of their own people in China from Hong Kong to Xinjiang, but also
> of people from other countries. Abducted people in China have no
> rights, and are simply "disappeared" for long periods of times,
> during which time they're jailed without legal representation or
> outside contact, and often beaten, raped and tortured. Just as
> the assumed abduction of Kikujiro in a generational Crisis era led
> to World War II in Asia, and assumed or actual abduction today can
> lead to war.

> The Japanese entered the city of Wanping on July 8, and of course
> Kikujiro was not found, since he'd already reported back to his
> base. Low-level shooting occurred on both the Chinese and
> Japanese side, but both sides called for reinforcements. One
> hundred Chinese defenders fought to hold the bridge; only four of
> them survived. The Japanese overran the bridge, but Chinese
> reinforcements retook it the following morning, July 9.


> In Beijing, the two sides negotiated a settlement of the incident.
> That would have been the end of it any time except in a
> generational Crisis era. The Japanese Cabinet held a press
> conference to announce the settlement, in which it also announced
> the mobilization of three new army divisions, and harshly warned
> the Chinese government in Nanking not to interfere with the local
> solution to the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. This incendiary
> cabinet statement caused Chiang Kai-shek's government to react by
> sending four divisions of additional Chinese troops to the area.


> Soon, both sides were violating the truce agreement. The Japanese
> shelled Wanping on July 20, and by the end of July the Imperial
> Army had surrounded Tianjin and Beijing. Even though neither side
> likely had planned to go into an all-out war, tensions were
> incredibly high. When a Japanese naval officer was assassinated
> in Shanghai on August 9, 1937, the Second Sino-Japanese War broke
> out in earnest. It would transition in to the Second World War,
> ending only with Japan's surrender on September 2, 1945.


> A lot of people believe that World War III, if it begins, will
> begin in an "organized" way, similar to how WW II in Europe began:
> Hitler invades Sudetenland in order to "protect Germans," then
> promises Britain "Peace in our time." Britain warns Hitler not to
> invade Poland, Hitler invades Poland, Britain declares war. Very
> organized. And Winston Churchill foresaw it years earlier.

> But World War I began in a "disorganized" way. Austrian Archduke
> Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school student,
> triggering a war that nobody saw coming.

> And now we see that even World War II began in a "disorganized"
> way, from a random event that was triggered because a Japanese
> soldier needed to pee. In "normal" times, the crisis would have
> ended quickly. But in a generational Crisis era, small conflicts
> trigger larger ones in a series of tit-for-tat escalations known
> in generational theory as "regeneracy events," referring to the
> regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the climax of
> the preceding crisis war.

> Thus, a small event triggered tit-for-tat escalations that started
> a major World War in Asia, a war that soon spread to Europe.

> Today, some small event in the Mideast, in Kashmir, in the South
> China Sea or in the East China Sea, that would normally amount to
> nothing could, today, trigger a tit-for-tat series of escalations
> leading to a new world war. That's what happens in a generational
> Crisis era, just as happened with the Marco Polo Marco Polo
> Incident on July 7-9, 1937.


So you say that war can't start now because the world ain't ripe yet?
Well, I say it could start tomorrow because someone unexpectedly may
have to pee.

John
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Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby John » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:33 pm

Guest wrote:> I wouldn't be so sure about that. I work for a defense contractor
> in Asia and we are flooded with orders for our state of the art
> systems. Asia has been gearing up for war for the last decade. We
> are working 24/7, and we can barely keep up. Asia is ripe for war
> today. Everyone I know in this industry is struggling to fill
> orders from across Asia. Asia is on the brink of war. I just hope
> I can time my escape just right.

> And no. I don't feel guilty about working in this industry. You
> have to make hay while the Sun shines.


What country are you in?

The Marco Polo Incident occurred on July 7-9, 1937, at a time when the
mood between China and Japan was exactly the same as you describe in
Asia today. Maybe someone in China will have to pee unexpectedly next
week, and the war will start.

The only thing I would point out is that unless you're very lucky, you
can't "time your escape just right." You could leave now, and there
may not be a war for a year. Or you could wait until something like
the Marco Polo Bridge incident occurs, and then all flights out of the
country may be booked. Unfortunately, no place is safe in a world
war.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 952
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China China th

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:23 am

John wrote:...

So you say that war can't start now because the world ain't ripe yet?
Well, I say it could start tomorrow because someone unexpectedly may
have to pee.


I'm not saying it can't, just that I believe it won't, for a little while yet.

What I mean by "ripe" is utterly vague, of course. Basically, I mean that the pertinent parts of the world aren't yet "anxious", "frustrated", nor yet "confident" enough to be triggered into full scale war by a pee break.

It IS very nearly "nationalistic" enough, though, but even that isn't quite there just yet. What "The Great Prognosticator" me <choke!> is looking for as to nationalistic behavior is the general populace of one "side" REALLY coming together as a solid unit that will approve, and actually prod on, governmental actions that create the "trigger-happy" environment whereby a pin prick, or kidney stone, would snowball into full on "world war".

The Chinese are almost there now. Not quite, but really really close. The real signal that the oil is on the floor, ready to be slipped on, is when some Chinese behavior causes the fractious parties in the west to choose between "them or us" instead of fighting amongst themselves about pronouns and Patreon.

Once real "unity" is concretely exhibited by one side (it will be the Chinese) then both sides will amp up the internal existential anxiety, frustration with the seeming lack of preparation to do what needs doing, and confidence that "we WILL win", and any excuse to escalate any slight into "let's GET 'EM boys!" will happen veritably overnight.

(( These days, I think that the "elites" also need to feel that they absolutely will survive a war before they will allow one to occur, but there MAY be "forces at work" that are trying to convince them that they won't (such as Bannon and crew) so as to forestall the war so that "we" will be more "prepared", but that is just wacky conjecture on my part,.. as is nearly all of the rest of my "reasoning" as regards this "war stuff", in truth. ))

So, I'm quite content, personally, to appreciate the amusing and comforting internal bickering of the identity based political groups within our various societies, as their little "wars" mean "the world ain't ripe yet".

Aloha, and keep the humor a'flowin', as seriousness right now means death is right around the corner. :) <shaka nui brudda!>


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