8-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks

[Guest 2]

Pompeo did declare the talks a "success". If he means he got out alive, that assessment is correct.
The can is down the road; however, the contents are nuclear missiles. I know people who fell for Trump's psychological manipulation attempt. The 3D gambit does not play on oriental minds. In general, men proceed in all situations under the flag, "I'm going to do what I'm going to do". Take that in bronze for Kim.
Trump took a big leap in cancelling military maneuvers. Now to reschedule them will be viewed by Kim as inflamatory defiance. Things just escalated and the can is rolling.

[CH86]

Pompeo did declare the talks a "success". If he means he got out alive, that assessment is correct.
The can is down the road; however, the contents are nuclear missiles. I know people who fell for Trump's psychological manipulation attempt. The 3D gambit does not play on oriental minds. In general, men proceed in all situations under the flag, "I'm going to do what I'm going to do". Take that in bronze for Kim.
Trump took a big leap in cancelling military maneuvers. Now to reschedule them will be viewed by Kim as inflamatory defiance. Things just escalated and the can is rolling.

Kim knows he is the weaker party here, that the US will reschedule exercises is well within the rights of a great power. Orientals are also very big on diplomatic protocol, harming ambassadors are a big no-no in Asian cultures, so there was never any danger of Pompeo being harmed. The only assessment here that you have correct is that North Korea will not denuclearize.

[Guest 2]

Sigh.
Yes CH. We came to the same conclusion. Have it your way. It's a guy thing.

[Guest]

'but in the end, there's going to be a confrontation, since the North Koreans have no intention of denuclearizing.'

You mean a war? Would that mean fighting China too?

[John]

'but in the end, there's going to be a confrontation, since the North Koreans have no intention of denuclearizing.'

You mean a war? Would that mean fighting China too?

Not everything can be predicted.

[Guest]

Not everything can be predicted.

I agree.

Wouldn't it be better to withdraw American soldiers from South Korea? I see things changing overnight, not unraveling over a period of weeks. This war will be a shock attack like the first Korean war in 1950. What if South Korea surrenders? Or even switches sides? Our soldiers could end up prisoners of war along with their families. And considering how freaky and strange the North Koreans are, what fate would await them?

At the very least, withdraw the family members. If war breaks out, I also have doubts about the reliability of the South Koreans. And what are we going to do with the 8000 military dependents living in Korea? It's crazy to have these people there. If war breaks out, US soldiers might refuse to deploy and instead rush home to make sure their families are evacuated.

During the Cold War, Americans in Germany could flee into France or escape into Denmark and be evacuated to the UK. Korea is basically an island. You can't walk or run anywhere. What will Americans do? Swim to Japan?

I don't doubt the abilities of the US army. I doubt the reliability of the leftist South Korean government.

Evacuate our people.

[CH86]

Not everything can be predicted.

I agree.

Wouldn't it be better to withdraw American soldiers from South Korea? I see things changing overnight, not unraveling over a period of weeks. This war will be a shock attack like the first Korean war in 1950. What if South Korea surrenders? Or even switches sides? Our soldiers could end up prisoners of war along with their families. And considering how freaky and strange the North Koreans are, what fate would await them?

At the very least, withdraw the family members. If war breaks out, I also have doubts about the reliability of the South Koreans. And what are we going to do with the 8000 military dependents living in Korea? It's crazy to have these people there. If war breaks out, US soldiers might refuse to deploy and instead rush home to make sure their families are evacuated.

During the Cold War, Americans in Germany could flee into France or escape into Denmark and be evacuated to the UK. Korea is basically an island. You can't walk or run anywhere. What will Americans do? Swim to Japan?

I don't doubt the abilities of the US army. I doubt the reliability of the leftist South Korean government.

Evacuate our people.

South Korea can't switch sides, because it is one of the sides. Also unlike in 1950, the South Koreans today are armed to the teeth, so the NORKS swarming the 38th would be a massive miscalculation for them. Unlike back then when doing so seemingly would lead to certain victory. Any war will be fought on Korean soil. Getting dependents out would make the mission much easier, however isn't the current mission of US forces Korea essentially to hold and die in place, while demonstrating to the South Koreans that the US commitment to their defense is irrevocable?

[guest]

Not everything can be predicted.

I agree.

Wouldn't it be better to withdraw American soldiers from South Korea? I see things changing overnight, not unraveling over a period of weeks. This war will be a shock attack like the first Korean war in 1950. What if South Korea surrenders? Or even switches sides? Our soldiers could end up prisoners of war along with their families. And considering how freaky and strange the North Koreans are, what fate would await them?

At the very least, withdraw the family members. If war breaks out, I also have doubts about the reliability of the South Koreans. And what are we going to do with the 8000 military dependents living in Korea? It's crazy to have these people there. If war breaks out, US soldiers might refuse to deploy and instead rush home to make sure their families are evacuated.

During the Cold War, Americans in Germany could flee into France or escape into Denmark and be evacuated to the UK. Korea is basically an island. You can't walk or run anywhere. What will Americans do? Swim to Japan?

I don't doubt the abilities of the US army. I doubt the reliability of the leftist South Korean government.

Evacuate our people.

South Korea can't switch sides, because it is one of the sides. Also unlike in 1950, the South Koreans today are armed to the teeth, so the NORKS swarming the 38th would be a massive miscalculation for them. Unlike back then when doing so seemingly would lead to certain victory. Any war will be fought on Korean soil. Getting dependents out would make the mission much easier, however isn't the current mission of US forces Korea essentially to hold and die in place, while demonstrating to the South Koreans that the US commitment to their defense is irrevocable?

A nuclear armed North Korea with an openly allied China will one day hand the South Koreans an ultimatum: Surrender or be destroyed. If a right wing government is in place, they will fight. If a left wing government is in place, the South will surrender. I doubt the North Koreans and Chinese would use conventional forces to attack South Korea. It would be too costly.

I hope the South Koreans fight to the death. If they give in, they will regret ever being born. South Korean men will be killed and South Korean women will wish they had been.

[Guest 4]

I have concerns of a complete immediate pull out of U.S. troops. The primary one being that it would undermine regional allies faith in U.S. support. This would leave the region fractured giving China more room for expansion. A gradual reduction over time would buy time (and "progress" from NK) while signaling to allies they need to start carrying more weight and possibly more room to exert trade pressure on China.

[Guest 5]

I have concerns of a complete immediate pull out of U.S. troops. The primary one being that it would undermine regional allies faith in U.S. support. This would leave the region fractured giving China more room for expansion. A gradual reduction over time would buy time (and "progress" from NK) while signaling to allies they need to start carrying more weight and possibly more room to exert trade pressure on China.

Asian armies are huge. South Korea's armed forces are huge. The South Korean navy has state of the art German submarines and they even have an aircraft carrier (for helicopters and with a curved ramp, jump jet capable). There are hundreds of thousands of active duty South Korean troops.

Japan has 1-2 aircraft carriers that are designated for helicopters, just are jet fighter capable. Japan makes the best diesel attack submarines in the world.

Asian countries are not like European countries. Asian militaries are extremely large and growing more technologically advanced every day. The Asian allies pull their weight.

Asian allies have little leverage with China. China is their market. They sell products to the Chinese. Asian economies are dependent on the Chinese market and even tourism.

I don't know how effective American ground forces would be in a war considering their small numbers, but the American air force and navy are definitely needed and effective against the Chinese threat.