14-Jun-18 World View -- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details

[Guest]

Governments rarely have the good fortune to be ready for war. The Germans weren't ready to fight WW2. The Japanese weren't ready either, but both felt forced to attack. The Chinese may not be ready to attack, but they might reach a point where they feel they have no choice but to attack. If people believe nations won't attack until they are ready, they need to study history and see why they are wrong. The Chinese will attack us; it's a matter of time. The Chinese probably don't know when that will be either.

"Ready" does not mean "totally prepared". It means "Gotta do it NOW!"

Germany was "ready" because... you tell me, as your knowledge is obviously greater as to historical "things".

Japan was "ready" because... ditto.

Who is the most likely to do the initial "attacking"? The non-Chinese or the Chinese? It's the Chinese. Therefore, we're waiting on the Chinese to make the move to war first.

China is not yet ready because (rather tautologically) it hasn't "attacked" yet!

..when China "feels" that it's Go Time, then China will be "ready" (obviously).

So, the question is not "are they ready", but rather "what would ready mean (look like) to them"?

Having THAT information would be actually useful.

Aloha a me nā mahalo! <shaka nui!>

Germany wasn't ready to start WW2. This is something you can research for yourself. Same with Japan.

You play with words too much. Twisting them doesn't add to the conversation.

If China feels cornered, it will attack.

[Cynic Hero 86]

China could adopt a "strike North" plan or a continental expansion plan. Its not really possible for the US to corner China by itself because closing Chinese expansion routes in the WESTPAC still leaves open potential expansion routes into south Asia and Siberia.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Governments rarely have the good fortune to be ready for war. The Germans weren't ready to fight WW2. The Japanese weren't ready either, but both felt forced to attack. The Chinese may not be ready to attack, but they might reach a point where they feel they have no choice but to attack. If people believe nations won't attack until they are ready, they need to study history and see why they are wrong. The Chinese will attack us; it's a matter of time. The Chinese probably don't know when that will be either.

"Ready" does not mean "totally prepared". It means "Gotta do it NOW!"

Germany was "ready" because... you tell me, as your knowledge is obviously greater as to historical "things".

Japan was "ready" because... ditto.

Who is the most likely to do the initial "attacking"? The non-Chinese or the Chinese? It's the Chinese. Therefore, we're waiting on the Chinese to make the move to war first.

China is not yet ready because (rather tautologically) it hasn't "attacked" yet!

..when China "feels" that it's Go Time, then China will be "ready" (obviously).

So, the question is not "are they ready", but rather "what would ready mean (look like) to them"?

Having THAT information would be actually useful.

Aloha a me nā mahalo! <shaka nui!>

Germany wasn't ready to start WW2. This is something you can research for yourself. Same with Japan.

You play with words too much. Twisting them doesn't add to the conversation.

If China feels cornered, it will attack.

My point is that "readiness" to start wars is (as you imply) a function of "felt pressure (including 'opportunity pressure')", and not a function of "sufficient preparation".

So, if China doesn't "feel the need (pressure)" to start hostilities, they won't, because no one else is going to start it (in my opinion).

Germany wasn't adequately/fully prepared to start WW2, but they WERE "ready" to start it because (wait for it!) they DID start it!

Yes, that is a tautology, but that is the nature of the situation. To be "ready" to do something is to make the decision to do it ASAP, when it comes to war, as telegraphing intentions is a very bad idea, and leaks have a nasty way of happening after decisions are made.

So, we agree. If China feels ready (or "cornered" in your phraseology) to go to war, they will do so ASAP.

BUT, once again, the issue is not WHEN they feel that way, but rather WHAT does it (the situation) look like when they feel that way?

If only they (the Chinese) know what their "ready" state looks like, then we (their opponent) will be at a disadvantage.

My basic contention is that if we have a reasonably good idea of what their ready state looks like, then we can manipulate their "felt pressure to go" so as to most fully prepare ourselves for the upcoming hostilities,.. and that their ready state is several years off because they have unaccomplished technical (technological) goals being worked on.

[Heisenberg]

If only they (the Chinese) know what their "ready" state looks like, then we (their opponent) will be at a disadvantage.

My basic contention is that if we have a reasonably good idea of what their ready state looks like, then we can manipulate their "felt pressure to go" so as to most fully prepare ourselves for the upcoming hostilities,.. and that their ready state is several years off because they have unaccomplished technical (technological) goals being worked on.

The remarks like that of Duterte are telling of GD at work. My guess is China's threshold for "this will not be tolerated" keeps rising until a sharp needle comes along. So probably best to look for things China perceives as sharp, however, as John has shown it will likely be something so small and beyond the control of any government it will just happen. I'm going to put my money on a drunk Vietnamese fisherman who's boat went just a little too far and gets himself killed. Say fishy where it is you said you were from again :narrows eyes:?

[CH86]

If only they (the Chinese) know what their "ready" state looks like, then we (their opponent) will be at a disadvantage.

My basic contention is that if we have a reasonably good idea of what their ready state looks like, then we can manipulate their "felt pressure to go" so as to most fully prepare ourselves for the upcoming hostilities,.. and that their ready state is several years off because they have unaccomplished technical (technological) goals being worked on.

The remarks like that of Duterte are telling of GD at work. My guess is China's threshold for "this will not be tolerated" keeps rising until a sharp needle comes along. So probably best to look for things China perceives as sharp, however, as John has shown it will likely be something so small and beyond the control of any government it will just happen. I'm going to put my money on a drunk Vietnamese fisherman who's boat went just a little too far and gets himself killed. Say fishy where it is you said you were from again :narrows eyes:?

A China that backed down at doklam is unlikely to risk a strategic war with much stronger adversaries. You seem to be suggesting that the Chinese leadership has some sort of bias against the idea of waging war within continental Asia that applies to India and Russia and simultaniously a preference for a pacific based war. My position that what the Chinese consider to be Casus Belli vs the US, vs Russia, vs India would be the same for each of those nations regardless of which enemy the Chinese are facing. For example lets say a Chinese ship is sent to harass a US vessel and the White house gives permission for the US vessel to exercise its right to self-defense and sinks the Chinese ship, now having that scenario in mind: lets change the scenario and now say the non-Chinese vessel was not a US ship but a Russian ship or an Indian ship acting in self-defense. My position is that the Chinese reaction would be the same regardless of which country the hypothetical non-chinese ship was from.

[JCP]

Look at how the American press treats President Trump. It 's despicable. They talk over him; they don't let him finish his answers, they shout at him even though they are standing just a few feet away. What shocking rudeness. I would don't know who that female reporter is, but she deserves to be slapped...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjEbCCh3Ptc

President Trump is the best President we have had since Eisenhower, and these third rate hacks have the nerve to treat Donald Trump like this?!

[Heisenberg]

Look at how the American press treats President Trump. It 's despicable. They talk over him; they don't let him finish his answers, they shout at him even though they are standing just a few feet away. What shocking rudeness. I would don't know who that female reporter is, but she deserves to be slapped...
!

One of the many instances of GD on display.

A China that backed down at doklam is unlikely to risk a strategic war with much stronger adversaries. You seem to be suggesting that the Chinese leadership has some sort of bias against the idea of waging war within continental Asia that applies to India and Russia and simultaniously a preference for a pacific based war. My position that what the Chinese consider to be Casus Belli vs the US, vs Russia, vs India would be the same for each of those nations regardless of which enemy the Chinese are facing.

No I'm coming from the perspective that the start will look more "GD crisis" in nature than "planned strategic war". As a result there will be less control on how it starts. We have seen far more ego expansion in the SCS over "territorial claims" than anywhere else. Not to mention there are a lot more (weaker) cooks in the kitchen there and boundaries are less clearly defined. All these factors considered in light of GD makes it a high probability ignition point absent some other crazy political event. China will make some unreasonable demand of some smaller country and war won't be far off.

[Trevor]

A lot of people in China think they'll be able to win the war easily. America is weak. America loses wars. America is spineless. America doesn't have the stomach for a fight. I've been hearing these comments more and more over the past few years.

[John]

> A lot of people in China think they'll be able to win the war
> easily. America is weak. America loses wars. America is
> spineless. America doesn't have the stomach for a fight. I've been
> hearing these comments more and more over the past few
> years.

Where do you hear them? Who do you hear them from?

[FishbellykanakaDude]

If only they (the Chinese) know what their "ready" state looks like, then we (their opponent) will be at a disadvantage.

The remarks like that of Duterte are telling of GD at work. My guess is China's threshold for "this will not be tolerated" keeps rising until a sharp needle comes along. So probably best to look for things China perceives as sharp, however, as John has shown it will likely be something so small and beyond the control of any government it will just happen. I'm going to put my money on a drunk Vietnamese fisherman who's boat went just a little too far and gets himself killed.

Say fishy where it is you said you were from again :narrows eyes:?

I have NO interest in going west of Japan/Micronesia/New Zealand/Aussieland. Period.

China MIGHT get "pricked" sufficiently by some weird persistently annoying Uighur and/or Tibetan group that seems to be "gaining ground". I don't see them being annoyed enough by any "sea oriented" people of Asia to trigger them into war, per se.

.but then, I'm consistently wrong, so mark your racing forms with that in mind.

Aloha! <shaka!>