25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

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John
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25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby John » Thu May 24, 2018 11:29 pm

25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

China prepares to station thousands of troops in South China Sea

** 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180525.htm#e180525



Contents:
North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
China prepares to station thousands of troops in South China Sea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Punggye-ri, Mount Mantap,
China, South China Sea, Subi Reef,
Rim of the Pacific drill

Trevor
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby Trevor » Fri May 25, 2018 8:36 am

Reading all of this reminds me of a war game that we played in 2002, called the millennium challenge. The "Red" Team was never specified, but considering what was going on at the time, all signs point to Iran.

Using low-tech methods, General Van Piper on the Red Team managed to sink an aircraft carrier, a dozen other naval ships, and five amphibious vessel. Had this been real, around 20,000 American personnel would have been killed. This was accomplished by a massive barrage of cruise missiles, small attack craft and suicide boats. Afterwards, his superiors interfered with the war game, setting things up so that there was no way he could succeed and the American victory was certain.

I can't help but point out that these were based on Iranian capabilities, a regional power. China's capabilities are a lot greater and in a surprise attack, I wouldn't doubt that they could inflict even more damage on an unsuspecting U.S. Navy. At the time, many wanted to sweep it under the rug, not wanting to believe that the U.S. could actually lose a major battle in that fashion.

A previous example was Admiral Harry Yarnell, who, during a war game in 1932, had proved how vulnerable ships were to aerial attack, which most of his peers at the time disbelieved. When Japan did attack, they used the same approaches he did during the war game in question. They didn't believe the Japanese could pull something like that off, just as we don't take China's capabilities seriously.

I understand how difficult the future is to predict and we see new designs come and go, many not living up to their fears. What would be pleasant to see is at least not being complacent and secure in our capabilities.

CH86
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby CH86 » Fri May 25, 2018 9:58 am

Trevor wrote:Reading all of this reminds me of a war game that we played in 2002, called the millennium challenge. The "Red" Team was never specified, but considering what was going on at the time, all signs point to Iran.

Using low-tech methods, General Van Piper on the Red Team managed to sink an aircraft carrier, a dozen other naval ships, and five amphibious vessel. Had this been real, around 20,000 American personnel would have been killed. This was accomplished by a massive barrage of cruise missiles, small attack craft and suicide boats. Afterwards, his superiors interfered with the war game, setting things up so that there was no way he could succeed and the American victory was certain.

I can't help but point out that these were based on Iranian capabilities, a regional power. China's capabilities are a lot greater and in a surprise attack, I wouldn't doubt that they could inflict even more damage on an unsuspecting U.S. Navy. At the time, many wanted to sweep it under the rug, not wanting to believe that the U.S. could actually lose a major battle in that fashion.

A previous example was Admiral Harry Yarnell, who, during a war game in 1932, had proved how vulnerable ships were to aerial attack, which most of his peers at the time disbelieved. When Japan did attack, they used the same approaches he did during the war game in question. They didn't believe the Japanese could pull something like that off, just as we don't take China's capabilities seriously.

I understand how difficult the future is to predict and we see new designs come and go, many not living up to their fears. What would be pleasant to see is at least not being complacent and secure in our capabilities.


LOL, I saw a video by some strategic analyst which mentioned that exact war game and according to him, the US navy revamped their entire doctrine as a result that 2002 exercise. He went on for over an hour describing US doctrine and Chinese Doctrine. The Notion therefore that the US is using the same doctrine that was current in the 1990s is therefore nonsense.

sue
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby sue » Fri May 25, 2018 10:32 am

CH: may I point out that we sat and descended into barry's jihadist communist DC emedded hell.
What yonder lurks in the Pentagon and deep state?
John, I despise the manipulating word definition obfuscating art of the deal. However, what you are describing seems positive. You are oh so correct. Kim will never abandon his quest for nukes and parity.
Canceling Chinese participation in regional maneuvers is an appropriate signal. No sense in involving the feckless UN. In-your-face Chinese aggression will require an America First Pentagon. Nowhere have I seen notice that the barry embeds are banished. Not fine.
Dynamite post, John. OO bound.

zzazz

Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby zzazz » Fri May 25, 2018 12:00 pm

Trump-ultimate bad faith negotiator. Even after a completed negotiation with Trump only a complete fool would think Trump would uphold his end of the deal.

Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby Trevor » Fri May 25, 2018 8:03 pm

CH86 wrote: LOL, I saw a video by some strategic analyst which mentioned that exact war game and according to him, the US navy revamped their entire doctrine as a result that 2002 exercise. He went on for over an hour describing US doctrine and Chinese Doctrine. The Notion therefore that the US is using the same doctrine that was current in the 1990s is therefore nonsense.


I hope you're right. It'd be nice to think that we can adapt and learn. It might have been a worst-case scenario, but it's still something to keep in mind, particularly when it comes to China.

I've seen numerous videos and articles describing both sides of the war game. I'm hoping that we won't be caught that unprepared, but considering it would be far from the first time we didn't prepare properly (The Iraq War comes to mind), it's not a possibility that I discount.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby Tom Mazanec » Sat May 26, 2018 7:09 pm

I will put this here, as China was mentioned and maybe more will see it in this subforum.
Why war with China will occur in 2020 https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... china.html
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

CH86
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby CH86 » Sat May 26, 2018 11:11 pm

I still don't see how the first island chain would satisfy Chinese resource requirements. Even if China defeated the US and secured that area they would still be surrounded by hostile neighbors. Also the US would still be there, itching for revenge as well. Any war with launched by China against Taiwan would also have to include the conquest of southeast Asia simply for the war to turn a profit for china. That in itself would pose problems of garrisoning conquests and logistics. I also don't see how large land forces would be useful in a mainly naval/air battle under such conditions, a guy with a rifle would just be a walking target.

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Sun May 27, 2018 4:01 am

zzazz wrote:Trump-ultimate bad faith negotiator. Even after a completed negotiation with Trump only a complete fool would think Trump would uphold his end of the deal.


Oh, Zzazzy zzazzy zzazzy....

..nothing else,.. I'm just appreciative for the opportunity to be able to type "Zzazzy zzazzy zzazzy" in context in a forum post.

Thanks! :) Nā mahalo a me aloha nui loa īa ʻoukou! :) <shaka!>

Telegraph subscriber

Re: 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

Postby Telegraph subscriber » Sun May 27, 2018 6:39 am

From the Telegraph (London):

Kim, in a telling line from a dispatch issued by the North's state-run news service on Sunday, "expressed his fixed will on the historic (North Korea)-US summit talks." The two Korean leaders agreed to "positively cooperate with each other as ever to improve (North Korea)-U.S. relations and establish (a) mechanism for permanent and durable peace."

They agreed to have their top officials meet again June 1 and to set up separate talks between their top generals.


And thus the North plants their wedge between South Korea and the US.

I have to agree with John on this one. The North will never denuclearize. With the Chinese dispatching heavy bombers and special forces troops to their atoll fortresses, perhaps the North Koreans are just delaying long enough for the Chinese to get into position and then jointly attack the South and the United States? Perhaps alienating the South Koreans from the United States will be enough for now; allowing the Chinese to push out American troops from a peninsula that offers a potential land bridge to mainland China?


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