27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

[thomasglee]

No one seriously believes that China backed off on Doklam because
it was giving up. The reason that China backed off is because
they aren't ready yet to launch a full-scale war.

In the meantime, China has been building up military infrastructure
along the border with Doklam, in preparation for when a full-scale
attack will be launched.

China has not yet attacked Taiwan, because it's not yet ready
for full-scale war. In the meantime, China is preparing its
navy and air force for the time when a full-scale attack
will be launched.

China has been supporting the US sanctions, because China does
not want a US military strike on North Korea, which would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it.

China has been building up huge military bases in the South
China Sea in preparation for a full-scale attack.

China has been sending fleets to circle the Senkaku Islands,
in preparation for the planned full-scale attack on Japan.

China is attacking US planes in Djibouti with high-grade lasers
in preparation for full-scale war with the US in the horn
of Africa.

China has deployed a bridage of ICBMs on the border with Russia's Far
East. These can used to attack the US over the North Pole, and can
also be turned on Moscow.

China is preparing for war on all fronts. They know that if they risk
war over Doklam, over NK, over the South China Sea, over Djibouti,
over the Senkakus, etc., then they will be in a full-scale world war
immediately. They won't launch one attack until they're ready to
launch all attacks simultaneously.

^^THIS^^

You're absolutely right John. If we attack nK with a nuke, China will respond with nukes. I guess we're likely headed down that path either way. We live in a very interesting time.

[CH86]

No one seriously believes that China backed off on Doklam because
it was giving up. The reason that China backed off is because
they aren't ready yet to launch a full-scale war.

In the meantime, China has been building up military infrastructure
along the border with Doklam, in preparation for when a full-scale
attack will be launched.

China has not yet attacked Taiwan, because it's not yet ready
for full-scale war. In the meantime, China is preparing its
navy and air force for the time when a full-scale attack
will be launched.

China has been supporting the US sanctions, because China does
not want a US military strike on North Korea, which would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it.

Thats why China would back down if the US nuked North Korea. China was not ready for actual war with India. If China intends to attack only when their forces are 100 percent ready, they would back down in the event of a nuclear strike on NK precisely because the Chinese forces are not ready.

[thomasglee]

No one seriously believes that China backed off on Doklam because
it was giving up. The reason that China backed off is because
they aren't ready yet to launch a full-scale war.

In the meantime, China has been building up military infrastructure
along the border with Doklam, in preparation for when a full-scale
attack will be launched.

China has not yet attacked Taiwan, because it's not yet ready
for full-scale war. In the meantime, China is preparing its
navy and air force for the time when a full-scale attack
will be launched.

China has been supporting the US sanctions, because China does
not want a US military strike on North Korea, which would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it.

Thats why China would back down if the US nuked North Korea. China was not ready for actual war with India. If China intends to attack only when their forces are 100 percent ready, they would back down in the event of a nuclear strike on NK precisely because the Chinese forces are not ready.

I am still of the opinion you’re wrong. I am of the opinion that all an attack, by the USA, would only force China into a war sooner than they would like. It would be like cornering a rapid dog and then they would have NO recourse but to respond unconventionally.

And let’s just say they don’t immediately respond. It still won’t change anything. Its not likely that a preemptive strike on North Korea would cause China to change their overall plan. It probably wouldn’t even delay it.

[CH86]

No one seriously believes that China backed off on Doklam because
it was giving up. The reason that China backed off is because
they aren't ready yet to launch a full-scale war.

In the meantime, China has been building up military infrastructure
along the border with Doklam, in preparation for when a full-scale
attack will be launched.

China has not yet attacked Taiwan, because it's not yet ready
for full-scale war. In the meantime, China is preparing its
navy and air force for the time when a full-scale attack
will be launched.

China has been supporting the US sanctions, because China does
not want a US military strike on North Korea, which would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it.

Thats why China would back down if the US nuked North Korea. China was not ready for actual war with India. If China intends to attack only when their forces are 100 percent ready, they would back down in the event of a nuclear strike on NK precisely because the Chinese forces are not ready.

I am still of the opinion you’re wrong. I am of the opinion that all an attack, by the USA, would only force China into a war sooner than they would like. It would be like cornering a rapid dog and then they would have NO recourse but to respond unconventionally.

And let’s just say they don’t immediately respond. It still won’t change anything. Its not likely that a preemptive strike on North Korea would cause China to change their overall plan. It probably wouldn’t even delay it.

Why would china respond that way? If they had the self-control to avoid war with India at Doklam, why would China backing down in NK not be an option? My proposed full-scale war does not include attacks on any Chinese target, and negotiations/deals on Taiwan would also be opened simultaneously with the offensive. A Deal along the lines of "you let us crush North Korea and you can have Taiwan and guaranteed US neutrality in the case of war between India and China" would likely be accepted by Beijing, especially since the proposed treaty includes several elements that are highly favorable to China. Xi has shown signs of making such a deal with Modi, why not with Trump?

[thomasglee]

Why would china respond that way? If they had the self-control to avoid war with India at Doklam, why would China backing down in NK not be an option? My proposed full-scale war does not include attacks on any Chinese target, and negotiations/deals on Taiwan would also be opened simultaneously with the offensive. A Deal along the lines of "you let us crush North Korea and you can have Taiwan and guaranteed US neutrality in the case of war between India and China" would likely be accepted by Beijing, especially since the proposed treaty includes several elements that are highly favorable to China. Xi has shown signs of making such a deal with Modi, why not with Trump?

No offense, but you're suspending all logic in an attempt to bolster your position. You could be right, of course, as anything is possible. But again, as John mentioned, their self-control was because they are not ready and India didn't push them. The scenario you propose would require us breaking several treaties and it would push China into having no other option but to respond. If you think we could sell out allies like India and Taiwan without any repercussions from other allies, then you really do not understand geopolitics and you discount how much such a sell out would damage the US in the eyes of the world. Lastly, an attack on Joseon would be an attack on China. That's a fact, whether you want to accept it or not.

It's been an interesting discussion, have a nice evening.

[John]

> No one seriously believes that China backed off on Doklam because
> it was giving up. The reason that China backed off is because
> they aren't ready yet to launch a full-scale war.

> In the meantime, China has been building up military
> infrastructure along the border with Doklam, in preparation for
> when a full-scale attack will be launched.

> China has not yet attacked Taiwan, because it's not yet ready for
> full-scale war. In the meantime, China is preparing its navy and
> air force for the time when a full-scale attack will be launched.

> China has been supporting the US sanctions, because China does not
> want a US military strike on North Korea, which would trigger a
> full-scale war before China is ready to launch it.

> Thats why China would back down if the US nuked North Korea. China
> was not ready for actual war with India. If China intends to
> attack only when their forces are 100 percent ready, they would
> back down in the event of a nuclear strike on NK precisely because
> the Chinese forces are not ready.

As usual, logic is never your strong suit.

In this case, you twisted logic completely, and you've stated
a conclusion which is the opposite of the conclusion that is implied
by what I wrote.

What I said was that a US military strike on North Korea would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it. I did NOT say
that there wouldn't be a full-scale war. I said that there WOULD be a
full-scale war.

I realize that the logic of the preceding paragraph is above
your second grade level, but perhaps if you read it over and over
a few times, you'll understand it.

[CH86]

What I said was that a US military strike on North Korea would trigger
a full-scale war before China is ready to launch it. I did NOT say
that there wouldn't be a full-scale war. I said that there WOULD be a
full-scale war.

I pointed why I think this logic is incorrect. If china goes to war before they are ready, their forces would be entering the war considerably weaker than what they had hoped. For that reason they would back down. This would not be a hard decision for them because the strike would be entirely against North Korean forces. Not to mention that Chinese (and Russian) war plans probably Assume a passive US policy as that was par for the course since 1991, such plans would therefore have to be redrawn from scratch since the fundamental assumptions behind them would become invalid the Moment a strike is launched on NK. China would just have to accept an active US from that point forward.

Also when I mentioned negotiations with Beijing and Moscow; another thing is that apart from the spheres of influence talks I discussed earlier, the US would essentially announce (drop transparent hints) that we intend to take care of other latent threats to the US such as Iran and the Taliban and that these campaigns would be launched regardless of the outcome of the talks on Taiwan, India, or the sea-lanes.

[John]

"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or
wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld

[CH86]

"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or
wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld

And Rumsfeld said that, was it 15 years ago now. Had reforms been allowed to be implemented once the invasion phase of the Iraq war was over, we would have had a Revved up military by now. Around the same time Putin's military buildup was noticed, China's modernization was also noticed around the same time by strategists. Had the system been allowed to operate freely as originally intended instead of with the constant shackles imposed on it by your generation. Unlike Your Generation people Born after the Mid-1950s regard the fundamental direction since 1995 as the incorrect course. Its Your Generation that Choose to artificially prolong the 3T.

Regarding Chinese actions They again would do nothing in the event of a US strike for military reasons as well. By launching a Full-scale strike on North Korea, US forces would be going to a wartime Footing. Chinese forces would therefore not have the element of Surprise.

[John]

But there are a number of equally relevant facts that
contradict what you're saying.

Korean babies are considered one year old at birth, and are classified
according to their blood type, but when a Korean's name is written in
red ink, it means the person is about to die. Furthermore, South
Korea harvests more than 90% of the world's seaweed consumption, and
all online shopping is required by law to be done using Internet
Explorer. These are equally important facts that you've been
overlooking.