27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

[thomasglee]

@John,

Do you think north Korea might be picking sides in the coming war? Perhaps KJU has decided he would rather take his chances aligned with the US and our allies in the coming war with China. Perhaps he realizes what is coming and he knows if he is aligned with China not only will he be toast, but his country will be as well.

[John]

> Do you think north Korea might be picking sides in the coming war?
> Perhaps KJU has decided he would rather take his chances aligned
> with the US and our allies in the coming war with China. Perhaps
> he realizes what is coming and he knows if he is aligned with
> China not only will he be toast, but his country will be as
> well.

Well, first off, today's news is that the closure of the nuclear power
plant is to be an international news spectacle. This is so silly and
so transparent that for me it actually has the opposite effect than
intended -- instead of showing a serious intent to denuclearize, it
shows that the whole thing is a joke.

As for your suggestion that he would align with South Korea instead of
with China, that makes sense to me. During the last year, we've seen
a great deal of loathing between Kim and Xi Jinping, and that loathing
hasn't gone away just because of the bromance between Moon and Kim.

But there's another issue that has to be considered. Kim is not free
to do whatever he wants. The NK people and the NK army have suffered
enormously for several decades, based on Kim's promises of a better
day once the nuclear weapons program has been developed. He has a
bunch of army generals reporting to him who are all fired up, waiting
for the order to attack SK or the US.

If he suddenly makes a decision that says:

> "Hey you guys. You know the decades of suffering you've undergone
> so that we could become one of the great nations of the world with
> nuclear weapons, talking peer to peer with America? Well, guess
> what? That was for nothing, because we're going to throw it all
> out. Haha, the joke is on you."

Kim would be shot and killed. So Kim really has few choices. Siding
with SK against China is probably one choice he has, especially if he
has a plan for reunification with SK with Kim in charge. Or, as you
say, if he has a plan for joining with SK and the US in a coming war
with China. But he's severely limited in his choices.

There is a historical event that's always impressed me for how it
describes what happens in any generational Crisis era, and it can be
seen in Tolstoy's War and Peace, and the Battle of Borodino.

If you have a few minutes read this:

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... olstoy.htm

and start reading in the section "Momentum Wars: The French reach
Moscow."

What I write about is how Tolstoy described the battle of Borodino as
something that was almost preordained.

In particular, Tolstoy wrote the following:

> The French soldiers went to kill and be killed at the battle of
> Borodino, not because of Napoleon's orders but by their own
> volition. The whole army - French, Italian, German, Polish, and
> Dutch - hungry, ragged, and weary of the campaign, felt at the
> sight of an army blocking their road to Moscow that the wine was
> drawn and must be drunk. Had Napoleon then forbidden them to fight
> the Russians, they would have killed him and have proceeded to
> fight the Russians because it was inevitable.

That's the situation that Kim Jong-un is in today. The wine has been
drawn, and must be drunk. Whatever that means in practice remains to
be seen, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean simply backing down and
denuclearizing.

[thomasglee]

> Do you think north Korea might be picking sides in the coming war?
> Perhaps KJU has decided he would rather take his chances aligned
> with the US and our allies in the coming war with China. Perhaps
> he realizes what is coming and he knows if he is aligned with
> China not only will he be toast, but his country will be as
> well.

Well, first off, today's news is that the closure of the nuclear power
plant is to be an international news spectacle. This is so silly and
so transparent that for me it actually has the opposite effect than
intended -- instead of showing a serious intent to denuclearize, it
shows that the whole thing is a joke.

As for your suggestion that he would align with South Korea instead of
with China, that makes sense to me. During the last year, we've seen
a great deal of loathing between Kim and Xi Jinping, and that loathing
hasn't gone away just because of the bromance between Moon and Kim.

But there's another issue that has to be considered. Kim is not free
to do whatever he wants. The NK people and the NK army have suffered
enormously for several decades, based on Kim's promises of a better
day once the nuclear weapons program has been developed. He has a
bunch of army generals reporting to him who are all fired up, waiting
for the order to attack SK or the US.

If he suddenly makes a decision that says:

> "Hey you guys. You know the decades of suffering you've undergone
> so that we could become one of the great nations of the world with
> nuclear weapons, talking peer to peer with America? Well, guess
> what? That was for nothing, because we're going to throw it all
> out. Haha, the joke is on you."

Kim would be shot and killed. So Kim really has few choices. Siding
with SK against China is probably one choice he has, especially if he
has a plan for reunification with SK with Kim in charge. Or, as you
say, if he has a plan for joining with SK and the US in a coming war
with China. But he's severely limited in his choices.

There is a historical event that's always impressed me for how it
describes what happens in any generational Crisis era, and it can be
seen in Tolstoy's War and Peace, and the Battle of Borodino.

If you have a few minutes read this:

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... olstoy.htm

and start reading in the section "Momentum Wars: The French reach
Moscow."

What I write about is how Tolstoy described the battle of Borodino as
something that was almost preordained.

In particular, Tolstoy wrote the following:

> The French soldiers went to kill and be killed at the battle of
> Borodino, not because of Napoleon's orders but by their own
> volition. The whole army - French, Italian, German, Polish, and
> Dutch - hungry, ragged, and weary of the campaign, felt at the
> sight of an army blocking their road to Moscow that the wine was
> drawn and must be drunk. Had Napoleon then forbidden them to fight
> the Russians, they would have killed him and have proceeded to
> fight the Russians because it was inevitable.

That's the situation that Kim Jong-un is in today. The wine has been
drawn, and must be drunk. Whatever that means in practice remains to
be seen, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean simply backing down and
denuclearizing.

Thank you for the detailed response here and in the other thread. It's much appreciated.

I agree that it is not all up to KJU alone. However, I wonder if perhaps the generals, etc., are all just tired and wanting to reach a peace agreement and unification so they can live out the rest of their lives in peace and, honestly, quite rich. There are so many variables it is just hard to know. Like you, I cannot see him simply backing down and denuclearizing and so that begs the question, "what's his end game". I keep trying to develop scenarios, but can't see to come up with anything other than he might be hoping that he can just live out the rest of his life as a kind of global celebrity. It's not a realistic goal for him to have, but then again, it's not very realistic of him to think he can win any kind of war either.

Ok, in reading the link you provided, this caught my eye...

it's possible for a low-energy strategy to beat a high-energy strategy.

.

KJU met with Xi before meeting with Pompeo or Moon and we do not know what was discussed in that meeting. Could it be that Xi is urging KJU to feign a truce with the ROK, and quickly, so that the ROK will call for US troops to leave the peninsula? Once US troops are removed, it makes China's move against the USA much more easier.

[Guest]

The summit between the Koreans means nothing. President Trump will decide the future of Korea. Pretending anything else is farce. If the South Koreans go all gooey and try to break the sanctions, President Trump will have to pound them hard. I would give the North two weeks to start destroying their nuclear weapons. That's it. If they refuse, destroy North Korea. I am NOT willing to sacrifice even one American city before taking action against North Korea. MAGA

[thomasglee]

Interesting story that kind of sheds a bit more light on things. It seems to me as if KJU might be softening up for the reasons I thought he might be. I think he truly wants to "enjoy" having a bit more freedom. We forget that he was not raised in north Korea and I think the "ruling" crap is getting to him. I do think he would rather live in the south and maybe, just maybe (yes, I am hopeful - my wife is Korean and we have lot of family in Korea) his sisters visit, and what it revealed to him, is melding his desires with an opportunity for peace.

Did you hear the one about the North Korean leader, the $100 bill and the trump card?

[John]

> Interesting story that kind of sheds a bit more light on things.
> It seems to me as if KJU might be softening up for the reasons I
> thought he might be. I think he truly wants to "enjoy" having a
> bit more freedom. We forget that he was not raised in north Korea
> and I think the "ruling" crap is getting to him. I do think he
> would rather live in the south and maybe, just maybe (yes, I am
> hopeful - my wife is Korean and we have lot of family in Korea)
> his sisters visit, and what it revealed to him, is melding his
> desires with an opportunity for peace.

> Did you hear the one about the North Korean leader, the $100 bill and the trump card?

Pyongyang must be a pretty austere place, even for the child dictator,
so I can well believe that with all the giggling, dancing and
laughing, he had more fun on his visit to SK than he's had since he
left Switzerland.

But there's still a hard bottom line. Kim can't simply denuclearize
without getting shot and killed by his own generals. Trump can't
allow Kim to build his arsenal of nuclear missiles. So we're faced
with a modern day example of the ancient philosophical question of
what happens when an irrestible force meets an immovable object.

By the way, you've changed your location to just "Texas." Are you now
staying out of Seoul for good?

[thomasglee]

> Interesting story that kind of sheds a bit more light on things.
> It seems to me as if KJU might be softening up for the reasons I
> thought he might be. I think he truly wants to "enjoy" having a
> bit more freedom. We forget that he was not raised in north Korea
> and I think the "ruling" crap is getting to him. I do think he
> would rather live in the south and maybe, just maybe (yes, I am
> hopeful - my wife is Korean and we have lot of family in Korea)
> his sisters visit, and what it revealed to him, is melding his
> desires with an opportunity for peace.

> Did you hear the one about the North Korean leader, the $100 bill and the trump card?

Pyongyang must be a pretty austere place, even for the child dictator,
so I can well believe that with all the giggling, dancing and
laughing, he had more fun on his visit to SK than he's had since he
left Switzerland.

But there's still a hard bottom line. Kim can't simply denuclearize
without getting shot and killed by his own generals. Trump can't
allow Kim to build his arsenal of nuclear missiles. So we're faced
with a modern day example of the ancient philosophical question of
what happens when an irrestible force meets an immovable object.

By the way, you've changed your location to just "Texas." Are you now
staying out of Seoul for good?

Yes, you’re right and in no way am I trying to discount your very valid point. I wonder how many of those hard line generals remain?

As for Korea... we still own property there and I make it back about once a year, but for the most part, I now keep my butt in Texas.

[Guest]

John, what ar your predictions for the Trump summit with Kim? Will Trump walk? I wonder if the commies in NK will be able to string DT along for very long. I agree, NK will never give up their nukes.

[Guest]

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... yptr=yahoo

Kim Jong Un Is Manipulating the World
The North Korean leader has deftly exploited fissures between the U.S. and South Korea.

[thomasglee]

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... yptr=yahoo

Kim Jong Un Is Manipulating the World
The North Korean leader has deftly exploited fissures between the U.S. and South Korea.

As much as many of us do not want it to be, this article is spot on.

Thx