27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by CH86 »

thomasglee wrote:
CH86 wrote:
thomasglee wrote:
The region is already generally militarized heavily or have you forgot about the DMZ?

Also, more than likely the Chinese will Push the North Koreans to start a war with America at the same time they invade at least Taiwan if not other regions America’s tire down in a war in Korea, it will be difficult for us to also respond and if in Taiwan. There are a lot of reasons why the Chinese want to keep us mired on the Korean Peninsula.
China invading Taiwan would be much easier without the US being involved in Asia than it is with the US in Asia. The North Korean threat gives the perfect Justification of self-defense for US involvement in Asia and a beefing up of US capabilities adjacent to China. Without North Korea we likely would have dismantled most of our bases there long ago.
You can't follow a discussion very well, can you?
Wars (at least major ones) are fought to gain resources. If the western pacific resources are guarded by US forces, it is much harder for China to acquire them by force than it would be if US forces weren't guarding them.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by John »

May 29, 2018
EXCLUSIVE: CIA says N. Korea won't give up nukes - but might open a fast-food burger joint

A new U.S. intelligence assessment has concluded that North Korea does not intend to give up its nuclear weapons anytime soon, three U.S. officials told NBC News — a finding that conflicts with recent statements by President Donald Trump that Pyongyang intends to do so in the future.

The analysis included the possibility that Kim Jong Un may consider offering to open a Western hamburger franchise in Pyongyang as a show of goodwill, knowing of Trump's love for fast food, the officials said.

Guest

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by Guest »

Trump attending the talks at this time (or any other) is pointless. Trump should say forget it and walk away. The way the Chinese are building up their forces now, it seems war is weeks away. And North Korea is in on it.

President Moon is a moron.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by John »

Guest wrote: > Trump attending the talks at this time (or any other) is
> pointless. Trump should say forget it and walk away. The way the
> Chinese are building up their forces now, it seems war is weeks
> away. And North Korea is in on it.

> President Moon is a moron.
Spare a thought for President Moon. He's facing the thought of Seoul
being flattened. He's perfectly reasonable being desperate to find a
solution, any solution.

Returning Guest

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by Returning Guest »

John wrote:
Guest wrote: > Trump attending the talks at this time (or any other) is
> pointless. Trump should say forget it and walk away. The way the
> Chinese are building up their forces now, it seems war is weeks
> away. And North Korea is in on it.

> President Moon is a moron.
Spare a thought for President Moon. He's facing the thought of Seoul
being flattened. He's perfectly reasonable being desperate to find a
solution, any solution.
. You're right, John. Fair enough.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by John »

From JFM Nightwatch:

The US and North Korea appear to be observing the punctilio of
diplomatic protocol for the summit. This visit is a component of that
process. Balakrishnan probably will meeting Kim Jong Un. Despite
Tweets and expert hand wringing about the summit, preparations
indicate it will occur.

The US President is having fun with the media and the Korean
experts. This meeting will be important mostly for its occurrence and
secondarily for any agreement on some broad principles. Kim Jong Un
described it as a beginning. Some in the mainstream media show little
appreciation that the threat of peace is almost as great a crisis as
the threat of war.

The eight-year interlude during the Agreed Framework provided a
glimpse of how difficult peace would be for North Korea. When North
Korea shut down and froze the Yongbyon nuclear complex, it relocated
an entire town of engineers and the people who supported them. The
barracks buildings at Yongbyon housed thousands of engineers, a US
source told us. They were emptied, one source said, “almost
overnight.”

Peace is a challenge far beyond diplomacy. Millions of livelihoods on
both sides of the Military Demarcation Line are tied to maintaining
the existing conditions of no war and no peace for the past 65 years.
Those conditions are so deeply rooted that change itself has become a
threat and a huge challenge.

The North Korean economy is a dependent of the armed forces and the
arms industry. North Korea has a mostly closed society and economy
that supports and sustains a million able-bodied men in uniform from a
population that the CIA World Factbook estimates is 25 million. Four
percent of the population is on active duty in uniform. In the US and
China, people in uniform account for less than a percent of the total
population.

The military reserves and red guards represent at least 20 percent of
the population. Adding in family dependents and connections, we
estimate that at least a third, and probably closer to half, of all
North Koreans depend on the armed forces and the arms export industry
as consumers.

The economic ripple effects of supporting the army, the reserves and
the red guards affect every sector of economic activity and almost
every household. Without the Korean People’s Army, the North Korean
economy would collapse.

Factory output would contract, even if foreign markets emerged
quickly. Almost all North Korean factories are dual-use
enterprises. That means that half of what they produce is directly for
military use or that a civilian factory also operates a secondary
military production line for direct military use.

To illustrate, a factory that makes ceramic bowls also will have
installed and will operate a small arms ammunition production line.
North Korea does not make ceramic bowls for export. The domestic
demand for ceramic bowls is too small to keep the factory operating
full time, but it can still make ammunition and keep the work force
employed. Armies almost never have enough ammunition and everyone has
a right to a job.

When Kim Jong Un said North Korea did not need nuclear weapons and
long-range ballistic missiles if its existence was guaranteed, the
same rationale could be applied to the million-man army. Kim was not
talking about his army, which is important. The North Korean idea of
denuclearizing the Peninsula has nothing to do with reducing
forces. That issue has not come up, curiously.

Nevertheless, a peace treaty between North and South Korea would imply
that a large Korean People’s Army eventually would no longer be needed
and that a fundamental restructuring of the North Korean economy
eventually would have to occur.

We are confident that Kim just wants the US forces to leave South
Korea. He has no intention and probably no ability to try restructure
or downsize North Korean forces without risking a military uprising
and assassination.

South Korea is not so dependent on the military economy, but
expatriates are. In South Korea, peace would not be so disruptive
because the South Korean economy is more integrated with the global
economy. It is not vitally dependent on the existence of the Republic
of Korea Army or on US Forces-Korea.

However, sectorally, peace would profoundly threaten the defense and
security industry in South Korea, with large ripple effects in the US
itself. We estimate up to a million expatriates and defense
contractors and subcontractors and their families in South Korea would
be looking for work, if the US downsized or dismantled US
Forces-Korea.

Reinforced by the inertia and the accretions of 70 years of no war and
no peace, none of the leaders shows the slightest interest in
preparing for peace beyond talking about it. Good intentions probably
are enough for now.

Dismantling a nuclear program is trivial compared to dismantling or
reconfiguring a military-industrial economic system to make peace.

thomasglee
Posts: 686
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by thomasglee »

John wrote:From JFM Nightwatch:

The US and North Korea appear to be observing the punctilio of
diplomatic protocol for the summit. This visit is a component of that
process. Balakrishnan probably will meeting Kim Jong Un. Despite
Tweets and expert hand wringing about the summit, preparations
indicate it will occur.

The US President is having fun with the media and the Korean
experts. This meeting will be important mostly for its occurrence and
secondarily for any agreement on some broad principles. Kim Jong Un
described it as a beginning. Some in the mainstream media show little
appreciation that the threat of peace is almost as great a crisis as
the threat of war.

The eight-year interlude during the Agreed Framework provided a
glimpse of how difficult peace would be for North Korea. When North
Korea shut down and froze the Yongbyon nuclear complex, it relocated
an entire town of engineers and the people who supported them. The
barracks buildings at Yongbyon housed thousands of engineers, a US
source told us. They were emptied, one source said, “almost
overnight.”

Peace is a challenge far beyond diplomacy. Millions of livelihoods on
both sides of the Military Demarcation Line are tied to maintaining
the existing conditions of no war and no peace for the past 65 years.
Those conditions are so deeply rooted that change itself has become a
threat and a huge challenge.

The North Korean economy is a dependent of the armed forces and the
arms industry. North Korea has a mostly closed society and economy
that supports and sustains a million able-bodied men in uniform from a
population that the CIA World Factbook estimates is 25 million. Four
percent of the population is on active duty in uniform. In the US and
China, people in uniform account for less than a percent of the total
population.

The military reserves and red guards represent at least 20 percent of
the population. Adding in family dependents and connections, we
estimate that at least a third, and probably closer to half, of all
North Koreans depend on the armed forces and the arms export industry
as consumers.

The economic ripple effects of supporting the army, the reserves and
the red guards affect every sector of economic activity and almost
every household. Without the Korean People’s Army, the North Korean
economy would collapse.

Factory output would contract, even if foreign markets emerged
quickly. Almost all North Korean factories are dual-use
enterprises. That means that half of what they produce is directly for
military use or that a civilian factory also operates a secondary
military production line for direct military use.

To illustrate, a factory that makes ceramic bowls also will have
installed and will operate a small arms ammunition production line.
North Korea does not make ceramic bowls for export. The domestic
demand for ceramic bowls is too small to keep the factory operating
full time, but it can still make ammunition and keep the work force
employed. Armies almost never have enough ammunition and everyone has
a right to a job.

When Kim Jong Un said North Korea did not need nuclear weapons and
long-range ballistic missiles if its existence was guaranteed, the
same rationale could be applied to the million-man army. Kim was not
talking about his army, which is important. The North Korean idea of
denuclearizing the Peninsula has nothing to do with reducing
forces. That issue has not come up, curiously.

Nevertheless, a peace treaty between North and South Korea would imply
that a large Korean People’s Army eventually would no longer be needed
and that a fundamental restructuring of the North Korean economy
eventually would have to occur.

We are confident that Kim just wants the US forces to leave South
Korea. He has no intention and probably no ability to try restructure
or downsize North Korean forces without risking a military uprising
and assassination.

South Korea is not so dependent on the military economy, but
expatriates are. In South Korea, peace would not be so disruptive
because the South Korean economy is more integrated with the global
economy. It is not vitally dependent on the existence of the Republic
of Korea Army or on US Forces-Korea.

However, sectorally, peace would profoundly threaten the defense and
security industry in South Korea, with large ripple effects in the US
itself. We estimate up to a million expatriates and defense
contractors and subcontractors and their families in South Korea would
be looking for work, if the US downsized or dismantled US
Forces-Korea.

Reinforced by the inertia and the accretions of 70 years of no war and
no peace, none of the leaders shows the slightest interest in
preparing for peace beyond talking about it. Good intentions probably
are enough for now.

Dismantling a nuclear program is trivial compared to dismantling or
reconfiguring a military-industrial economic system to make peace.
Some very interesting points that I should have considered myself, based on my experience both as a soldier in Korea for three years and in working with Korea's defense industry for more than 20 years. Much of the technology that emanates from the ROK began as military research projects. Peace on the Korean peninsula could prove to be very costly to many. This will be an interesting aspect to follow.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”

Guest

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by Guest »

I doubt peace will ever be achieved on the Korean peninsula; however, if if it was, with China rampaging across the Pacific, I doubt the SK defense industry would suffer that much. South Korea will have to fight China soon enough.

Guest

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by Guest »

If Trump accepts a joke of an agreement with Kim Jung un, he will lose what support his has among his remaining followers.

If Trump walks out and tells the North Koreans to go to hell, then he will be the greatest president of the last 50 years.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post by John »

Guest wrote: > If Trump accepts a joke of an agreement with Kim Jung un, he will
> lose what support his has among his remaining followers.

> If Trump walks out and tells the North Koreans to go to hell, then
> he will be the greatest president of the last 50 years.
Doesn't matter. All roads lead to Rome.

(Rome = war)

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