John wrote:For some reason, everything that Trump does makes sense to me. ...
So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:
- "Trump is alienating our allies, including Justin
Trudeau." ...
It's an ancient principle (predating the "cultural split" between the "proto-indoeuropeans" and the "proto-altaic-folk") that you "break the balls" of your allies when contention (or complacency) arises, while you talk honey-words and flaming-ferocity in alternation with your competitors.
If they're allies, they're NOT going anywhere (position wise) because of rightfully getting their balls busted for being complacent with "the big dog".
[*] "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
-- and got nothing in return." ...
The "feministas/Left" do not understand the concept of reciprocity. They only know "give me what I want because you're evil and I'm not, and I therefore am owed my wants!"
Now, that is not actually true, except as a "PR Point" to sell to infantile new true believers they're hoping to recruit.
The use of this technique is a desperate attempt to find SOMETHING to say in response to real "transactional discourse" (negotiation) between Trump and Kim that RESONATES with the "millie idiots", making the "Left" appear to be doing SOMETHING in resistance to "the evil".
[*] "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
risked making a major technical mistake." Having an expert
present at the meeting means that you're committed to agreeing with
whatever the expert says at the meeting. Without an expert present,
Trump can say "We'll have the experts work out the details later."
The Khan IS the expert in all things IMPORTANT at any particular time! (I'm rather on a Central Asian kick at the moment, if you hadn't noticed!)
The "IMPORTANT" qualification is important. What is important at the start of negotiations is to suss out reliability. The Khan first tests for the smell of reality on the opponent. The Khan tests the lowliest cook exactly the same as the King of the City Dwellers. Is this someone who will not spin out of control (from anxiety) when a good deal (or a "just" deal) is presented to him?
The smell test lasts 20 seconds. All else during the initial meeting is nicety. Only once a "probably severe anxiety producing" time period (for the cook) has passed AFTER the end of the "interview" is the food either sampled or not.
[*] "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
advance." ...
That is NOT an option at all. Reality testing must come before transactional agreement.
I, as "savage", have a fish and a club. I meet a "savage" man seemingly like myself with a chicken and a club. I want his chicken, and he wants my fish. Do we talk about fish and chickens?
No. We talk about how one uses a club, and why.
[*] "The final agreement contained no details." That's
intentional. The details will be worked out later.[/list]...
The Khan talks about hopes and dreams. The Khan, a true shaman, is the mediator between what you want, and what you deserve. True humility with the Khan will bestow the gifts of the great blue sky and the bountiful earth.
The cook and the King must believe that the Khan is THE KHAN, and father from which fulfillment of hopes and dreams, and dreads and nightmares, WILL come.
Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done
everything right.
But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible, for
reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:
- It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military. As
I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
If convinced, Kim could seize and kill the entirety of "military decision makers" with veritably no consequences.
...a little assistance from the Khan might suddenly appear in that regard!
[*] North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
NK's "institutional memory" resides in those who are easily kill-able by a converted Kim.
[*] The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
The righteously weeping King in need of help from his Khan will have his needs met if presented with due humility and reason.
[*] China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
North Korea is just a side show anyway.[/list]
The Khan has many things to concern himself with, and stealing the allies of his competitors is one of them in ANY case!
There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.
First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.
The "mass" of the NK population is tired. There are IN the midst of their GD Crisis Genocide.
They will not push for nuking anyone if their "GOD" is converted
Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.
The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists.
The denuking of NK is not unsolvable, but it is largely irrelevant, and may actually be a "problem" that forestalls the truely inevitable "China vs. The West" conflict.
..it may in fact be INADVISABLE to solve the NK problem!