27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

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John
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27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby John » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:53 pm

27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap


North-South Korea summit begins

** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180427.htm#e180427



Contents:
North-South Korea summit begins
Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable
North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap
The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site,
University of Science and Technology of China, USTC,
Jilin Earthquake Agency, China Earthquake Administration,
Changbai Mountain

sue
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby sue » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:46 am

Memories. Back to months of negotiating table shape, this time with much higher stakes. Kim is unhinged and diabolical. If Kim put any value on others' lives, that statement would be an exaggeration. Underground testing endangers North Koreans and the land itself. Test firing imperils other nations. For Kim, win-win...unless he continues smoking cigs at test sites.
Trump must take a NO future walkback position. His track record of poor chosen advisors, and sometimes ill-considered spontaneous Twittered responses will make these negotiations to watch carefully. More than North Korean geography is involved.

thomasglee
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby thomasglee » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:04 am

John, you've provided another excellent analysis of the situation in Korea. Kim's only goal (and likely that of the Chinese) is to have US troops leave the ROK. Once that is accomplished, the Chinese and norKs will revert back to their old tricks.
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

John
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby John » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:19 am

thomasglee wrote:> John, you've provided another excellent analysis of the situation
> in Korea. Kim's only goal (and likely that of the Chinese) is to
> have US troops leave the ROK. Once that is accomplished, the
> Chinese and norKs will revert back to their old tricks.


Thanks, Tom. I appreciate your comment since you personally know
what's going on in Korea.

Guest

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby Guest » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:18 am

Kim is offering everything that South Koreans want. It's too good to be true because it is just that: too good to be true.

thomasglee
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby thomasglee » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:33 am

Guest wrote:Kim is offering everything that South Koreans want. It's too good to be true because it is just that: too good to be true.


Exactly.
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

thomasglee
Posts: 365
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Location: Texas

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby thomasglee » Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:17 am

I thought you might like to read this analysis on the South/North Korea situation. Dave is a good friend of mine and one of our best analysts when it comes to Korea.

http://myemail.constantcontact.com/My-I ... wZHPD2ajSI
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

John
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Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby John » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:56 am

thomasglee wrote:> I thought you might like to read this analysis on the South/North
> Korea situation. Dave is a good friend of mine and one of our best
> analysts when it comes to Korea.

> http://myemail.constantcontact.com/My-I ... wZHPD2ajSI


Thanks for the link. It's interesting that nobody really has even the
vaguest clue what's going to come after the Kim-Trump summit.

Will NK agree to denuclearize? No one (including me) thinks so, and
many people point out that when Kim says "denuclearize" he means
something completely different from "NK will dismantle its entire
nuclear weapons program," which is how the West defines it.

Will China and South Korea violate the UN and US sanctions, as your
friend suggests? China is already demanding that the US-imposed
sanctions be lifted.

If the sanctions are NOT lifted, will Kim be forced to cave on
denuclearization because he doesn't have enough money? Or will he do
something militarily desperate instead?

If the sanctions ARE lifted, will Trump use military force to stop
Kim's nuclear missile development? And how will Japan react?

What's interesting is that no one has the vaguest clue what the
answers to these questions are. As the saying goes, we are truly in
"uncharted waters," where we may hit a reef and sink at any time.

My own opinion, based on Generational Dynamics principles, is that the
most likely scenario is that NK will NOT agree to denuclearize, and
Trump will have to make a decision whether to take military action.
The decision he makes is not predictable, but from his repeated
bellicose statements that neither Iran nor NK will be permitted to
have nuclear weapons, I believe it's more likely than not that he will
militarily intervene.

However, there is one way that I can see a different outcome. Recall
my February article:

** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180212.htm#e180212


It's possible that Kim's sister followed Yeltsin's path, and convinced
Kim to change directions, and it's even possible that the sister
convinced Kim to go for the summit meetings with Moon and Trump.

However, what argues against that is that at the time of Yeltsin's
epiphany, Russia was in a generational Unraveling era, when
compromises are possible. NK today is in a generational Crisis era,
when compromises are generally impossible.

thomasglee
Posts: 365
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Location: Texas

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby thomasglee » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:04 am

John wrote:However, there is one way that I can see a different outcome. Recall
my February article:

** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180212.htm#e180212


It's possible that Kim's sister followed Yeltsin's path, and convinced
Kim to change directions, and it's even possible that the sister
convinced Kim to go for the summit meetings with Moon and Trump.

However, what argues against that is that at the time of Yeltsin's
epiphany, Russia was in a generational Unraveling era, when
compromises are possible. NK today is in a generational Crisis era,
when compromises are generally impossible.


This is the question I keep running through my head. I can see how KJU and his sister, both having been raised, predominately, in the west, might be thinking it would just be better for them if they opened up the north. Perhaps they desire to be jet-setting across the world as rich yuppies. :)
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

thomasglee
Posts: 365
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Postby thomasglee » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:40 am

Here is another interesting take on the summit.

A scathing critique from Professor Lee.

As the elected leader of the Republic of Korea, representing the entire Korean people, President Moon should have remembered his job description. Seizing the moment, he should have told the unelected, hereditary Northern leader to tear down the walls of his inhumane gulags. At the very least, as a former human rights lawyer, Moon should have called on Kim to release all political prisoners, South Korean and foreign detainees, and allow the North Korean people some basic freedoms.

Instead, in a gesture eerily reminiscent of the final lines of Shakespeare's "The Comedy of Errors," when one of the Dromio twin clowns, upon finding his long-lost brother, hearteningly says, "We came into the world like brother and brother / And now let's go hand in hand, not one before another," President Moon, holding Kim Jong Un's hand, walked to and fro across the militarized border affectionately side-by-side, not one before the other.

Trump must remember: Marx was wrong on many things, but he was spot on when it came to the cyclical tragi-farcical unities of history.


A Korean comedy of errors
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong


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