2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests

[John]

2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests

Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves

** 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180202



Contents:
Arrested Iran reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticizes Supreme Leader Khamenei
Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei
Mehdi Karroubi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Great Islamic Revolution,
Girls Of Revolution Street, Vida Movahed

[mhagerty]

Hi John,
Always enjoy reading your posts. I've been trying to learn about geopolitics and generational dynamics for a little while now, but one part of your predictions doesn't make sense to me. In the Clash of Civilizations prediction, you lay out that the US will team up with Russia and Iran to face China and Sunni nations in the battlefield. Given that the current administration in the US wants to (eventually) pull out of the Iran deal, it doesn't seem likely that we'd then five/ten/fifteen years down the road team up in a major war. The only way this seems possible is if Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is overthrown as supreme leader for a secular state. Apart from the widespread protests last month, which to me were in the end more targeted at Rouhani, I don't see the entire government being overthrown.

A second point is that the US and Israel have both been cozying up to Saudi Arabia since MbS has taken effective power. I also see a lot of similarities in Donald Trump and MbS. Given these two cases, why would the US choose to side with Iran over Saudi Arabia? In the case of it actually being the US choosing sides based on China and Russia, I don't understand why China will definitely side with Saudi Arabia. Yes, they are trying to invest directly in Saudi Aramco, but China also has a lot of oil and gas related financial interests in Iran. China also imports quite a lot of natural gas from Russia, so unless this dependency changes (which it could through liquefied natural gas over the next 10 years), I think China would be likely to side with Russia. Could you please explain more of your thought process behind the axis and allies in Clash of Civilizations?

Another question I have is related more to this specific post. How do the citizens of Iran view the social developments in Saudi Arabia? I know that the Supreme Leader called the MbS rise to power a soft coup. Which, Khamenei isn't necessarily wrong in that regard. But you see headline steps toward a more liberal nation (women drivers, theatres, etc.) in Saudi Arabia. Iranians are protesting and taking off their hijabs. MbS has taken the farcical anti-corruption actions against the royal family and other princes. Last month Iranians protested government and clerical corruption follownig the JCPOA. Whether or not Saudis intentions and execution are in line with the headlines, the headlines match exactly what is being protested in Iran. Is this all a ploy to stoke revolution in a rival nation? I mean, when Iranian citizens perceive widespread reform in an arguably more conservative nation, wouldn't they be motivated to try and improve their own situation, despite that other nation being Sunni vs their own Shi'a?

Thanks again for the posts every day. I look forward to hearing your reply.

[devorah]

In our family we have Iranian prayer rugs given to an uncle by Reza Pahlavi. The Iran/Iraq War, visions of children joining hands to front between opposing tanks and supposed helicopter rescue teams downed in the desert tainted American views of the Shiek of Araby.
Iran is dealing with bedrock issues of regime- caused poverty. Barry hussein not only bungled Alinsky's playbook but ultimately used his pen, phone and ego to botch Soros' evil strategies. Illegally releasing billions to Iran will prove to be the latest Khamaeni's undoing. Waving babushkas may be symbolic; however, the awakening is on.

[Tom Mazanec]

How did the Chinese Awakening occur without regime change? Could the same thing happen in Iran?

[John]

> How did the Chinese Awakening occur without regime change? Could
> the same thing happen in Iran?

It's theoretically possible for Iran to avoid a regime change,
but that would require an extremely hardline group in the
younger generations to take control and clamp down violently
as the CCP does in China. But I don't see any signs of
that happening in Iran.

[John]

> Always enjoy reading your posts. I've been trying to learn about
> geopolitics and generational dynamics for a little while now, but
> one part of your predictions doesn't make sense to me. In the
> Clash of Civilizations prediction, you lay out that the US will
> team up with Russia and Iran to face China and Sunni nations in
> the battlefield. Given that the current administration in the US
> wants to (eventually) pull out of the Iran deal, it doesn't seem
> likely that we'd then five/ten/fifteen years down the road team up
> in a major war. The only way this seems possible is if Ayatollah
> Seyed Ali Khamenei is overthrown as supreme leader for a secular
> state. Apart from the widespread protests last month, which to me
> were in the end more targeted at Rouhani, I don't see the entire
> government being overthrown.

I've written many times that in the coming Clash of Civilizations
world war, the "allies" will be the United States, India, Russia and
Iran, while the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim
countries.

The summary behind the reasoning is as follows: China is very closely
allied with Pakistan, which is very closely allied with the Sunni
states. China and India are bitter enemies, as are Pakistan and
India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and India is very
closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims
going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680. Iran's younger
generations are generally pro-Western and even pro-American.
Connecting the dots, the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If
that seems surprising, remember that Russia was our bitter enemy
before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy
after WW II, so you can't judge from today's political alignments how
nations will act when they're facing an existential crisis in the form
of a generational crisis war.

Here's a list of articles you can read:

** 21-May-17 World View -- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170521


** 21-Aug-16 World View -- Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160821


** 25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160525


** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e151109


** 15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150715


** 12-Sep-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150912


** China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080405

[CH86]

> How did the Chinese Awakening occur without regime change? Could
> the same thing happen in Iran?

It's theoretically possible for Iran to avoid a regime change,
but that would require an extremely hardline group in the
younger generations to take control and clamp down violently
as the CCP does in China. But I don't see any signs of
that happening in Iran.

Here JohnX refuses to acknowledge that heroes can defeat prophets. The tienamemen square massacre was the heroes crushing the prophets not conservative prophets defeating liberal ones.

[Guest]

Yes, prophets can be killed, but it's not easy to stop a movement, even I the leader is murdered.

[John]

An older generation retires and dies off. Therefore, an older
generation cannot defeat a younger generation unless a large segment
of the younger generation supports the older generation.

[CH86]

An older generation retires and dies off. Therefore, an older
generation cannot defeat a younger generation unless a large segment
of the younger generation supports the older generation.

Which is why the boomers ideology of Americans always helping others and Humane treatment of enemy POWs in war is destined for the dustbin of history. None of the younger generations support it.