20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic

[John]

20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic

Examples of the 58 Year Hypothesis: Swine Flu, Iraq War, Israel-Hezbollah war

** 20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171020


Contents:
Mainstream economists baffled about stock market panic of October 19, 1987
The 58 Year Hypothesis: False panics of 1914 and 1987
Examples of the 58 Year Hypothesis: Swine Flu, Iraq War, Israel-Hezbollah war


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Panic of 1987, Dan Rostenkowski,
Tim Metz, Jeff Cox, 58 Year Hypothesis, John Kenneth Galbraith,
Gerald Ford, Swine flu, Spanish Flu, Israel Hezbollah war, Iraq war

[WorldMan]

What could the 58 year hypothesis tell us about reactions to a real world crisis? Will the next real crash be initially viewed as 1929 because investors will think 1987 eventually righted itself?

[Gold bug]

If gold is a bad investment, and Bitcoin is an even worse one, what should people invest in?

I still think gold is a storage of wealth, so even if it doesn't go parabolic (which I think it will in the next economic crisis), it will still be the most universally and easily transportable commodity a person can have.

Throw me a fricken' bone here...

[John]

> What could the 58 year hypothesis tell us about reactions to a
> real world crisis? Will the next real crash be initially viewed as
> 1929 because investors will think 1987 eventually righted
> itself?

For an event to trigger the 58 year hypothesis, it has to be
an event that traumatizes the entire society or nation, and
it has to be a catastrophe that was foreseeable but not foreseen.
For America, I can only think of one event since the end of
WW II that fits that description -- 9/11/2001.

[John]

> If gold is a bad investment, and Bitcoin is an even worse one,
> what should people invest in?

> I still think gold is a storage of wealth, so even if it doesn't
> go parabolic (which I think it will in the next economic crisis),
> it will still be the most universally and easily transportable
> commodity a person can have.

> Throw me a fricken' bone here...

The problem with trying to give investment advice is that it depends
on what you believe will be the scenario that leads to a crisis,
and there are many possible scenarios, and they require different
advice. But since you've asked a couple of times, I'll try
to sort through some of the options, for what it's worth:

• In most scenarios, the best investment is cash, because it's
  the only investment that will hold its value in a crisis where
  there's still law and order.
• In some scenarios, you may have to remain in your home with
  no water or electricity for an extended period of time. For that
  reason, you should have enough food and water for you and your
  family to survive a month or two. You should also have some cash
  stored in your home, in case you have to opportunity to buy something.
• In some scenarios, you may have to leave your home and become a
  refugee. To prepare, you and each family member should have
  a "go bag" that can be grabbed at any time with essential supplies,
  including cash.
• Gold is in a bubble. Based on its historical prices, I expect
  its value in a financial crisis to fall to the $200/oz range, where
  it was around 2000, and then possibly recover to $400-500/oz.
  However, if your magic crystal ball says that gold is going to
  go up instead of down, then by all means buy a little gold as
  a kind of insurance.
• If you do buy gold, then don't buy gold certificates, as they
  will probably become completely worthless. Buy physical gold,
  and hide it in your home. Vince Cate is a member of this forum,
  and he's a gold salesman with a pretty good system for making
  it provable that a gold bar is real gold. I haven't seen him
  in a while, and come to think of it he lives in the Caribbean
  and may be entirely off the grid because of the hurricanes.
  But you might send him a private message, and you might get
  a response.
• In a scenario where there's no law and order, and there are
  maurading gangs robbing, raping and killing everyone, then both cash
  and gold will be subject to counterfeiting, and there's probably
  nothing safe. If you're concerned about this, then you may want you
  and your family to move to the Midwest and live in a bunker with a
  survivalist community.

You also need to evaluate your own circumstances. Here are some
questions you should answer:

• Where do you live? There are different likely scenarios
  for living in Washington DC versus living on a farm in Kansas.
• Do you have any skills that you could use in a crisis? I'm
  referring to "real skills," like the ability to build a house,
  fix a car, or kill robbers with a gun.
• Are you and your family members healthy and not dependent
  on frequent medical care or medications?
• Do you even want to continue to live if there's a world
  war going on?

I don't know if that helps or not since it doesn't answer your
question unambiguously about where to invest, but I think the bottom
line is that you have to evaluate your own circumstances and make
plans accordingly.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm

Personal belief(s) of mine:

1 generation = 2 solar cycles (slightly less actually, as "biology" wants to "force" generations to occur faster)
3 generations = typical lifespan (Time to physically mature, teach, and consider reality deeply.)
4 generations = high lifespan = Crisis Cycle (Time to "Forget".)
(( These "equations" are a universal principle of ALL life in the Universe. ))

"Existential Panic" always occurs slightly before the "typical lifespan" point (58<60 years). ("Death is soon!")
"Societal Memory of Reality" lasts until slightly before the "Existential Panic" point (56<58). ("Fogies must DIE!")

ALL lifeforms (and all negentropic processes) go through this cycle, based on their generation rate, and their "Societal Memory of Reality" time period.

An "Apex Lifeform" within a planetary ecosystem is "forced into development" by Biology (writ large) having to deal with, and being steered by, the "energy tides" of the "Stellar System's" cycling (orbiting) parts.

This "Apex Lifeform" (AL) is created from, and continually supported by, the rest of the "biota" within the planetary ecosystem. The specific form, at any particular time, of this "AL" is continually refined (evolved) by the "refining process" of the action of this stellar (system) "tide".

The "goal" of this development (the dev of this AL) is a specific species of being that has a fully conscious awareness of what "institutional memory" truly means, such that the "crisis" brought about by younger generations (of the said species) "forgetting" about the reality of the consequences of genocidal "war" (mass murder over resources) is avoided by "making species-wide memory truly real and felt as such".

When "institutional memory" of the inescapable reality of the generational cycle is truly FELT, and not "a story told by old fools", then non-genocidal resource reallocation will be "obviously mandatory" and the "next goal" of the planetary Apex Lifeform will continue to be refined it by the same stellar tide...

...and that goal is to find and use resources for living, as a species with our "maximally interesting supporting planetary biota", in a maximally efficient non-genocidal manner, which eventually means drawing from resources "off world" so as to keep "our beauty" intact.

"Our Beauty" is that which makes life worth living, such as a beautiful environment and beautiful intellectual pursuits.

We will only be forced/allowed "off world" when we conquer our lack of memory of reality.

Aloha a me mahalo īa kākou!

[Gold bug]

Thank you, John. I have been following this blog for years. Thank you for your advice.

I met my first financial planner in July, 2006, and I have met many more since. I asked them about the property bubble and zero interest rates in 2006 because I was worried, and none of them thought it was a problem. When the market tanked after Lehman, a few told me to dump everything and buy gold, and some told me to invest more. Their advice was all over the board. None of them were right about anything. I have met several financial planners who smirked when I mentioned my concerns; I always dropped them immediately. I don't trust or like arrogant people. They are always wrong. I came to the conclusion after the 2008 crisis that financial planners and economists have no idea what is going on or what to do about it. That's why I read your site. Everything you say goes against the mainstream, at least for awhile. And then it seems to go your way, kind of. I found you because I was looking for someone willing to call respected economists morons, and you fit the bill. You are the little boy in the story that notices the emperor has no clothes.

I have always considered what you say carefully. I still have no solutions. But you have said many times that sometimes there aren't any solutions. Now I think it might be a bad idea to survive what is coming.

[Guest]

In a scenario where there's no law and order, and there are
maurading gangs robbing, raping and killing everyone, then both cash
and gold will be subject to counterfeiting, and there's probably
nothing safe. If you're concerned about this, then you may want you
and your family to move to the Midwest and live in a bunker with a
survivalist community.

What's with the marauders? Does anyone seriously think America will collapse? America is a first world country. I hear this Mad Max talk online from people trying to sell gold coins and survival gear. I think people need less Alex Jones and more Good Morning America.

Civilization to the depressed: Don't give up yet.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

...

Civilization to the depressed: Don't give up yet.

I'm right in there with ya, boobie! <- "oo" as in "took", by the way.

Despair means "I lose by my own hand!", and I don't lose that way. ANY existence is preferable to giving up on existence, and the after existence for those who hold on to existence pays the price for the uncomfortableness of existence.

Easy to say,.. hard to do,.. but that's what makes the game a game! We're not owed comfort, we're set a challenge to overcome.

Aloha y'all! (Aloha īa ʻoukou, a me iaʻu.)

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Regarding this:

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm

Personal belief(s) of mine:

1 generation = 2 solar cycles (slightly less actually, as "biology" wants to "force" generations to occur faster)
3 generations = typical lifespan (Time to physically mature, teach, and consider reality deeply.)
4 generations = high lifespan = Crisis Cycle (Time to "Forget".)
(( These "equations" are a universal principle of ALL life in the Universe. ))
...

By "These equations are a universal principle of ALL life in the Universe", I mean that the stellar system (any stellar system) is "pushing for" (working to create) the "AL" (Apex Lifeform) with those characteristics. It is "evolving" (honing, refining) the AL from the "stock" that is the precursor "biota" supporting that goal of evolution.

That is what the "AL-capable life producing" stellar-planetary machinery is meant to do. Rather tautological, agreed, but ALL life producing stellar systems TRY to become AL producers, and all stellar systems TRY to become life producers.

AL life is the attempted product of ALL physical processes in the universe.

Once a "provisional" planetary AL "arrives" who produces a generation (slightly less than) approximately every 2 solar (stellar) cycles, and it has "fingers", "stereo vision", and can carry things around (usually meaning bipedalism, "free arms") then it very rapidly progresses to "near-non-genocidal warmaker" status (ie humans of the last 200,000ish years).

What is the "physical link", and necessity, between the evolution of the AL and this seemingly "arbitrary" 2 solar cycle time period?

A "tide", or cyclical energy gradient, is necessary to power anything. Negentropic processes (such as life) require an energy gradient to convert disorder into order. Disorder into order, or rather non-useful order into useful order, is what life is.

So, why TWO solar (stellar) cycles!? Because chemistry demands a certain amount of absolute time for biological processes to occur, and a star with a "chemically acceptable" habitable zone (Goldilocks zone, not too hot or cold), which is also of the appropriate size/mass (not too big or small) which dictates the life-sustaining "lifespan" of the system (long enough to develop human-like life), a stable double solar cycle of somewhere centered around 20ish earth years is necessary (with most likely a variance of less than ±20%).

Yeah,.. but why TWO cycles, and not ONE or THREE, or SIX!?

Because ONE is too fast, and THREE (and larger) is too slow.

WHY...!!?

..you'll have to do that math yourself.