3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum

[John]

3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum


Significant differences in the three recent independence movements

** 3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171003



Contents:
Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
Significant differences in the three recent independence movements


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Erbil, Kurdistan Region,
Masoud Barzani, Turkey, Syria, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Haider al-Abadi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kirkuk, Peshmerga,
Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Spain, Catalonia

[DaKardii]

3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum


Significant differences in the three recent independence movements

** 3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171003



Contents:
Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
Significant differences in the three recent independence movements


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Erbil, Kurdistan Region,
Masoud Barzani, Turkey, Syria, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Haider al-Abadi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kirkuk, Peshmerga,
Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Spain, Catalonia

What about Turkey? In the article, you state:

In both of these cases, we clearly see a resurgence of vitriolic xenophobic attitudes that gave rise to previous generational crisis wars: the Spanish Civil War in the late 1930s and the bloody civil war in the Cameroon colonies in the late 1950s, respectively.

However, we are not seeing anything remotely like that in the Kurdistan separatist movement in Iraq. Nobody tried to prevent the independence referendum that took place in Kurdistan on September 25. Kurdistan president Masoud Barzani says that the referendum passed overwhelmingly, but Barzani says that rather than declare independence, he wants simply to negotiate with the Baghdad. Baghdad and Iran are sending troops to the Kurdistan border, but there is no sign that they plan to cross the border.

These are the kinds of things that one looks for when doing a Generational Dynamics analysis of a country or event. There is no apparent xenophobic vitriol between the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi Shias, as there was between the two pairs of groups in Spain and Cameroon, respectively. And, as usual, what is important in a generational analysis is not the behaviors and attitudes of the politicians, but the attitudes and behaviors of entire populations or generations.

So the most likely outcome of the independence referendum in Kurdistan, based on the information so far, is that there will be political posturing and threats, but no actual violence or military confrontation. Of course, this could change at any time, especially if Shia militias controlled by Iran invade Kirkuk to displace the Peshmerga. But without something like that, violence is not expected.

Iraq and Iran may not be in a crisis era, but Turkey seems to be. Erdogan is currently in the process of undoing the political order that was established by Ataturk after the end of Turkey's last crisis war, World War I. Meanwhile, his rhetoric towards his neighbors is becoming increasingly hostile, and his troops are threatening to attack countries like Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia on a semi-regular basis. In my opinion, there is no reason to believe that Turkey will show the same restraints that Iraq and Iran may show.

[John]

> Iraq and Iran may not be in a crisis era, but Turkey seems to
> be. Erdogan is currently in the process of undoing the political
> order that was established by Ataturk after the end of Turkey's
> last crisis war, World War I. Meanwhile, his rhetoric towards his
> neighbors is becoming increasingly hostile, and his troops are
> threatening to attack countries like Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, Greece,
> and Armenia on a semi-regular basis. In my opinion, there is no
> reason to believe that Turkey will show the same restraints that
> Iraq and Iran may show.

Well, you're right about Turkey. Also, if Turkey sends troops into
Kirkuk or any other city contested by the Kurds, I don't believe that
the Iraqi Shias or Iran will be very happy. They may not want the
Kurds running Kirkuk, but they want the Turks running it even less.