27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

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John
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27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

Postby John » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:14 am

27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum


Iraqi Kurds' independence referendum appears headed for big approval

** 27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170927.htm#e170927




Contents:
Iraqi Kurds' independence referendum appears headed for big approval
Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Erbil, Kurdistan Region,
Massoud Barzani, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
António Guterres, Haider al-Abadi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Seyed Ali Khamenei, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu

Guest

Re: 27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

Postby Guest » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:55 pm

The Kurdish Peshmerga has evidently been building towards this referendum for years. First, the Peshmerga has generally blocked Arabs from returning to cities and areas that it liberates from ISIS. This means that these Arabs did not vote in the referendum. Second, for the past wile the Peshmerga has refrained from taking control of any new territory. For example in Kairawan, Tel Afar, and Hawijah areas, the Peshmerga has held its lines but not advanced. This means that the residents of these predominantly Arab regions also did not vote in the referendum.

Given all this preparation, it was a virtual certainty that the referendum would overwhelmingly favour independence. I also find it unlikely that the Kurdish Regional Government will abandon its path of several years and goal of several decades by not declaring independence at this time. I therefore conclude with high confidence that the KRG will soon declare independence from Iraq.

What will be the result of this declaration? It seams to me that Iraqi Kurdistan is already de facto independent. Baghdad has not exercised effective control over the Kurdish region since 2011. One effect of the declaration of independence will be to infuriate the Iraqi government, which would rather rule Kurdistan itself. Another effect will be to infuriate the Turkish government, whose leaders oppose Kurdistan and everything Kurdish. Already, because of the referendum, the Iraqi and Turkish militaries are conducting joint military drills in southern Turkey. This is not only unprecedented but very odd, given that the one is Shiite Arab and the other is Sunni Turkish.

The Iraqi and Turkish militaries certainly could defeat the Peshmergas and conqueror Iraqi Kurdistan, given that it is landlocked and without it's own air-force. However it is unlikely that the political will exists for a war of that magnitude at this time. The most that Iraq and Turkey are likely to do is impose embargoes or sanctions on the de facto independent state. It is also unlikely that any established state, except possibly Israel, will officially recognize Iraqi Kurdistan as an independent state or establish diplomatic relations.

Coordinated fires
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Re: 27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

Postby Coordinated fires » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:39 pm

Guest wrote:
What will be the result of this declaration? It seams to me that Iraqi Kurdistan is already de facto independent.


The proof will be whether or not they're able to secure a seat in the general assembly. At that point it will be official. Until then, I expect to see some pretty significant push back from Baghdad, Ankara, maybe even Washington.

In fact, just today President Emmanuel Macron reiterated France’s “respect for the unity of Iraq, its territorial integrity, its stability, and the rejection of the referendum in the Kurdistan Region”. I suspect Germany will be weighing in soon against the referendum as well, as they need Turkey to maintain the migrant deal.

A shame really, as many of the Kurds have gotten a raw deal. Promised a state after the ottomans were driven out, promised a state when Saddam was ejected from Kuwait, and again when he was ejected from Baghdad, and once more when they were needed in the fight against ISIS. A nation without a state if ever there was one.
Politics is war by other means

Guest

Re: 27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

Postby Guest » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:51 pm

The proof will be if the they're able to secure a seat in the general assembly.


I think it is important to note that this is the proof of independence not the cause of it. The UN membership is sometimes achieved by states long after they are effectively self ruled and recognized my several other governments.

Coordinated fires
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:14 pm
Location: Merica

Re: 27-Sep-17 World View -- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum

Postby Coordinated fires » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:31 pm

Guest wrote:
The proof will be if the they're able to secure a seat in the general assembly.


I think it is important to note that this is the proof of independence not the cause of it. The UN membership is sometimes achieved by states long after they are effectively self ruled and recognized my several other governments.


Sure, Taiwan being a prime example. A curious position indeed.
Politics is war by other means


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