23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

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John
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23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby John » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:34 pm

23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum


Spain's government mounts massive crackdown to prevent Catalonia independence referendum

** 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170923.htm#e170923



Contents:
Spain's government mounts massive crackdown to prevent Catalonia independence referendum
The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Barcelona,
King Felipe, Mariano Rajoy, Oriol Junqueras,
Generalísimo Francisco Franco, Germany, Italy,
Spanish Civil War, Battle of Ebro

Guest

Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby Guest » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:24 am

I think this is heading for a civil war. I don't see how it can end otherwise. Both sides have gone too far to back down. The people of Barcelona at this point will accept nothing less than full independence. The government of Spain will never allow that.

This referendum WILL take place and WILL pass. Then the parliament of Barcelona WILL declare independence. Then the government of Spain WILL try to enforce national laws such as taxes, which WILL be resisted. Then there will be a civil war. I don't see any way around it.

John
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Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby John » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:34 am

Guest wrote:> I think this is heading for a civil war. I don't see how it can
> end otherwise. Both sides have gone too far to back down. The
> people of Barcelona at this point will accept nothing less than
> full independence. The government of Spain will never allow that.

> This referendum WILL take place and WILL pass. Then the parliament
> of Barcelona WILL declare independence. Then the government of
> Spain WILL try to enforce national laws such as taxes, which WILL
> be resisted. Then there will be a civil war. I don't see any way
> around it.


This is a major and far-reaching political crisis, and there may well
be some violence and rioting, but it's very, very far from a civil
war. Even under all the assumptions you mention, including the
declaration of independence, violence at this time will be quickly
brought under control by the Guardia Civil and, if necessary, forces
from other EU nations. There's nothing here at this time that
resembles the proxy war of the 1930s and, in fact, there's little
sympathy for Catalonian independence outside of Catalonia itself.

François

Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby François » Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:23 pm

You forget to mention help or assistance that was offered from djihadist groups in the past, towards Catalonia independence.
That might be a really dangerous path for both sides.

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Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby John » Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:16 pm

François wrote:> You forget to mention help or assistance that was offered from
> djihadist groups in the past, towards Catalonia independence.
> That might be a really dangerous path for both sides.


My opinion is that ISIS and al-Qaeda don't give a shit about
Catalonia. They're using all their resources to kill other Muslims.
They certainly might pull off a terrorist attack or two (in fact,
there was a terrorist attack in Barcelona last month), but I don't
think that would lead to a civil war -- in fact, it would probably
unify the opposing sides in Catalonia to fight the terrorists.

François

Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby François » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:39 pm

You might be right, but it wouldn't be the first time that Al-Quaida linked groups "offer their help" to independence seeking people - I think.
And then the choice would be difficult for weakened Catalonian independentists.
Thanks anyway for your answer.

Guest

Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby Guest » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:54 am

Russia would help Catalonia, just to bust NATO Spain. I think Putin has designs in Germany too. Look for separatist movements to pop up in Germany.

What happens if the Catalans do declare independence? Military occupation?

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Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby John » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:39 am

Guest wrote:Russia would help Catalonia, just to bust NATO Spain. I think Putin has designs in Germany too. Look for separatist movements to pop up in Germany.

What happens if the Catalans do declare independence? Military occupation?


If Russia "helped" Catalonia, it would be war with the entire European Union.

Guest

Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby Guest » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:21 pm

That help could be financial and the use of 'fake news'. It doesn't have to be an invasion. Putin would probably facilitate weapon shipments.

John
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Re: 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

Postby John » Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:22 pm

Guest wrote:That help could be financial and the use of 'fake news'. It doesn't have to be an invasion. Putin would probably facilitate weapon shipments.


That would be enough to provoke protests and perhaps even violence,
but not enough to cause a civil war.


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