23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

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John
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23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

Postby John » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:31 pm

23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'


An Afghanistan policy guided by generational theory

** 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170823.htm#e170823



Contents:
Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'
An Afghanistan policy guided by generational theory
Pushing on to victory - as in WW II, Iraq 1991, Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2007
Rex Tillerson denies that 'battlefield victory' is possible
America redefines its relationship with Pakistan and India


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, China, Pakistan,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Haqqani Network, Iraq, al-Qaeda in Iraq,
Rex Tillerson, India

mm71

Re: 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

Postby mm71 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:50 pm

John - I've read about the coming world war with China, with China likely initiating. A few things I'm curious about...Do you think they will end up launching attacks on the U.S.? What would their main reasons be for starting a war? And what objectives would they even be aiming for? Seems like so much to lose for them. Thanks

Joke a day

Re: 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

Postby Joke a day » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:55 pm

On the subject of wars ending, you may find this interesting. Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu says that they have managed "to end the Syrian Civil War." (http://www.rbc.ru/politics/23/08/2017/5 ... 69efe6c9e8)

John
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Re: 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

Postby John » Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:17 pm

mm71 wrote:John - I've read about the coming world war with China, with China likely initiating. A few things I'm curious about...Do you think they will end up launching attacks on the U.S.? What would their main reasons be for starting a war? And what objectives would they even be aiming for? Seems like so much to lose for them. Thanks



Here's something I've written before:

These questions have to do with the scenario that will start WW III.
There's no way to predict the scenario, since there are so many
possibilities, but we can look at the scenarios that started previous
wars and try to learn lessons from them.

  • WW II did not begin with the Anschluss of Nazi Germany and
    Austria, nor did it begin with the Nazi invasion Czechoslovakia.
    Hitler was using the "salami technique" of one conquest after another,
    each one thought to be too small to trigger an all-out war.
    Nonetheless, when the Nazis invaded Poland, Britain felt it had to
    intervene.

    Today, China is using the same "salami technique" in the South China
    Sea and elsewhere, as it plans to take control of their entire region
    and control all access to it. At some point, China will take a step
    too far, and Vietnam or the Philippines or India or Australia or the
    United States will feel obligated to oppose the Chinese. Another
    example is that North Korea is using a kind of "salami technique" to
    develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM that could reach American soil. At some
    point, North Korea may conduct one more nuclear weapon test or one
    more ballistic missile test that will cause the US or China to decide
    to do something to stop further nuclear development, and that could
    trigger a war.

    However, a "small action" doesn't always trigger a world war. There
    are numerous examples -- US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, US
    invasion of Iraq over fear of WMDs (58 year hypothesis), Israel's
    invasion of Lebanon because of Hezbollah's actions (58 year
    hypothesis), Saudi Arabia's invasion of Yemen, the proxy war in Syria,
    Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea, Russia's invasion of South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia, and so forth.
  • The Pacific theatre of WW II began when Imperial Japan attacked
    Pearl Harbor and other American targets. Today, China may decide to
    launch a direct attack on the US and/or India.
  • WW I began when a high school student decided to shoot and kill
    the archduke of another country. We can imagine many variations of
    this today. In 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab
    province, tried to reform the blasphemy laws, and was shot dead by his
    own bodyguard. So, if an official from India had been visiting Taseer
    that day, that same bodyguard might have decided to shoot and kill the
    Indian official, and that might have triggered retaliation or a war.
    As another example, in December of last year in Ankara, a member of
    Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to
    Turkey. Russia decided not to retaliate, but they might have. As a
    final example, one country's "special forces" might infiltrate another
    country and kill the country's leader, and that could trigger
    retaliation and a war.
  • The War of the Spanish Succession began with a legal issue:
    The death of the King of Spain, and a will that bequeathed
    Spain to the grandson of the King of France, triggering
    the war. Today, some sort of legal issue in Taiwan might appear
    to Beijing to be moving Taiwan in the direction of independence,
    which would trigger a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Or we're
    seeing this crazy blockade of Qatar by four Arab countries,
    based on little more than legalisms. That could trigger some
    sort of war.
  • Many wars have begun with popular rebellions. There's Russia's
    Bolshevik Revolution, China's Taiping Rebellion, China's Communist
    Revolution, Iran's Great Islamic Revolution, the French Revolution,
    and so forth. This could happen today in countries like China,
    Russia, Egypt, and so forth.
  • Some country (China) could trigger one of America's mutual defense
    treaties. The United States has some sort of mutual defense treaty
    with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the
    Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
    and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
    with all of Europe.

So you can take your pick as to which scenario is most likely.

Many of these situations would not have triggered a world war during
an Awakening or Unraveling era, but will do so in a Crisis era because
the populations are extremely nationalistic, xenophobic, and
irrational.

** 29-Jun-14 World View -- What could trigger another world war?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140629.htm#e140629

Coordinated fires
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Re: 23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'

Postby Coordinated fires » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:55 pm

Nice job,this is a great compilation of data from prior articles plus some new stuff. Very thorough, ill be bookmarking this for future reference.

I've always wondered if the air bases in Afghanistan, aside from their obvious tactical value, would become part of the value prop within the broader indo-pacific strategy(presuming there is one).
Politics is war by other means


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