15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

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John
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15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby John » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:40 pm

15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Generational history of the 1947 Partition War that created Pakistan and India

** 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170815.htm#e170815




Contents:
Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
Generational history of the 1947 Partition War that created Pakistan and India


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Punjab,
Mahatma Gandhi, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Hindus, Sikhs,
Sufis, Ahmadis, Partition War, Nawaz Sharif, Mamnoon Hussain,
East Pakistan, Bengal, Bangladesh, Biharis, Bengalis, 1857 Rebellion,
Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban

jmm1184
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Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby jmm1184 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:45 pm

Generational history of the 1947 Partition War that created Pakistan and India


Very interesting article, particularly about the identity crisis Pakistan has. I've long wondered if countries with tumultuous recoveries and mid-cycle periods are places that have either recently unified otherwise hostile groups into a new nation or who do not have a clear identity, like Pakistan.

However, I have a few questions about the generational analysis of India.

I do not dispute that the 1857 Indian Rebellion was a crisis war for North & West India, and in fact it may have been a crisis war for all of India.

However, I take issue with the claim that the Amritsar Massacre is the generational awakening era climax, because it occurs far too late after the climax of the Indian Rebellion. All but one source I've found on the Indian Rebellion indicates it ended in 1859 with the fall of Delhi. That would place the Amritsar Massacre taking place 60 years after the crisis war climax - in the middle of a crisis era! That is simply far too late to be feasible. Now, one source that I've noted elsewhere in the forum indicates that the violence of the Indian Rebellion may have continued for many years after that, with the British troops carrying out horrific atrocities across the continent that my have resulted in up to 10 million dead. This is very controversial and I've only encountered it in one source. Yet even that book does not give a decisive clear end to when the violence ended, so its very hard to pin point a crisis climax going beyond the fall of Delhi in 1859. For the Amritsar massacre to be a feasible awakening era climax, I would expect the preceding crisis war climax occurring no earlier than 1867, as I've yet to encounter an awakening era climax taking place longer than 52 years after a crisis war climax.

The other issue is Bengal/East India. It is indisputable that the 1971 war was a crisis war. But I have continued to look and I have yet to find any evidence of a crisis war in East India that could be a possible precedent for the 1971 war other than the 1857 Indian Rebellion. I suppose its possible that the conquest of Burma could count, but so far that's been inconclusive at best, unlikely at worst. I did see that there was a temporary partition of Bengal in 1910, but so far I have not seen any evidence of anything like the genocidal violence of the 1947 partition in East India at that time. Therefore I am not sure that East India really was on a different timeline as North/West India during Partition.

John
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Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby John » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:47 pm

jmm1184 wrote:> Generational history of the 1947 Partition War that created
> Pakistan and India

> Very interesting article, particularly about the identity crisis
> Pakistan has. I've long wondered if countries with tumultuous
> recoveries and mid-cycle periods are places that have either
> recently unified otherwise hostile groups into a new nation or who
> do not have a clear identity, like Pakistan.

> However, I have a few questions about the generational analysis of
> India.

> I do not dispute that the 1857 Indian Rebellion was a crisis war
> for North & West India, and in fact it may have been a crisis war
> for all of India.

> However, I take issue with the claim that the Amritsar Massacre is
> the generational awakening era climax, because it occurs far too
> late after the climax of the Indian Rebellion. All but one source
> I've found on the Indian Rebellion indicates it ended in 1859 with
> the fall of Delhi. That would place the Amritsar Massacre taking
> place 60 years after the crisis war climax - in the middle of a
> crisis era! That is simply far too late to be feasible. Now, one
> source that I've noted elsewhere in the forum indicates that the
> violence of the Indian Rebellion may have continued for many years
> after that, with the British troops carrying out horrific
> atrocities across the continent that my have resulted in up to 10
> million dead. This is very controversial and I've only encountered
> it in one source. Yet even that book does not give a decisive
> clear end to when the violence ended, so its very hard to pin
> point a crisis climax going beyond the fall of Delhi in 1859. For
> the Amritsar massacre to be a feasible awakening era climax, I
> would expect the preceding crisis war climax occurring no earlier
> than 1867, as I've yet to encounter an awakening era climax taking
> place longer than 52 years after a crisis war climax.


I'm not really bothered that the Awakening climax could occur
at the 60 year mark. Some milestones in the generational timelines,
particularly the turning boundaries, are pretty much fixed, but
others are not. The Regeneracy usually occurs in the fourth turning,
but it could be postponed to the fifth turning. And the Awakening
climax, which resolves the generational issues, usually occurs
in the Awakening or Unraveling eras, but there's no reason why
it can't occur a little later.

jmm1184 wrote:> The other issue is Bengal/East India. It is indisputable that the
> 1971 war was a crisis war. But I have continued to look and I have
> yet to find any evidence of a crisis war in East India that could
> be a possible precedent for the 1971 war other than the 1857
> Indian Rebellion. I suppose its possible that the conquest of
> Burma could count, but so far that's been inconclusive at best,
> unlikely at worst. I did see that there was a temporary partition
> of Bengal in 1910, but so far I have not seen any evidence of
> anything like the genocidal violence of the 1947 partition in East
> India at that time. Therefore I am not sure that East India really
> was on a different timeline as North/West India during
> Partition.


This issue is more troublesome. I said in the article that the
Partition war was an Awakening war for Bengal, but that's obviously
not true, as you point out. And yet the fact remains that Bengal
did not actively fight in the Partition War. Why?

There's one thing that stands out that explains it: The horrific
Bengal famine of 1942-43. This famine devastated the entire region,
and the people would have had very little energy to fight in the
Partition war four years later. And it was a man-made famine, so
there were plenty of people to be blamed. That could explain why the
Bengal crisis war was postponed for two generations.

As a related matter, the effect of Ireland's great potato famine
on the region's timeline has never been satisfactorily explained.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:03 am

John wrote:> ... That could explain why the Bengal crisis war was postponed for two generations.

As a related matter, the effect of Ireland's great potato famine
on the region's timeline has never been satisfactorily explained.


May I submit an "If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's a duck" rule?

Any blow to a population's psyche that is a "survived existential crisis" is a "Crisis WAR/BATTLE Climax".

The "reset" of a society's timeline is "simply" (!) a crisis climax (of whatever cause), which USUALLY happens in it's "proper place" (in the Crisis Era) but CAN happen at any time, and an analysis of what happens when "a crisis climax" happens in each decade (or 7-ish years, or one generation divided by 3 [22/3 years]) of the whole 4 generation cycle would be "quite interesting". :)

(( That model would make a great basis for a sim-game, as well. ))

..and no, I'm not doin' that for 'ya! I have a boat and novel to work on... <chuckle!>

Aloha!

John
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Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby John » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:39 am

John wrote:> ... That could explain why the Bengal crisis war was postponed for
> two generations.

> As a related matter, the effect of Ireland's great potato famine
> on the region's timeline has never been satisfactorily
> explained.


FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> May I submit an "If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck
> it's a duck" rule?

> Any blow to a population's psyche that is a "survived existential
> crisis" is a "Crisis WAR/BATTLE Climax".

> The "reset" of a society's timeline is "simply" (!) a crisis
> climax (of whatever cause), which USUALLY happens in it's "proper
> place" (in the Crisis Era) but CAN happen at any time, and an
> analysis of what happens when "a crisis climax" happens in each
> decade (or 7-ish years, or one generation divided by 3 [22/3
> years]) of the whole 4 generation cycle would be "quite
> interesting". :)

> (( That model would make a great basis for a sim-game, as well. ))

> ..and no, I'm not doin' that for 'ya! I have a boat and novel to
> work on... <chuckle!> Aloha!


I can't agree with that. It's true that a massive famine or pandemic
is a "blow to a population's psyche," but it's a very different kind
of blow than a crisis war.

The difference is what I've described elsewhere as "moral
deterioration," where the society or nation increasingly devalues
individual human lives to the point where sadistic torture, rape,
atrocities, and genocide become acceptable and excusable, and the only
thing that matters is preserving the society and its way of life.

What's important about the crisis climax is not the number of people
killed, but an "explosive" genocidal act that is so horrible that both
winners and losers are willing to do anything possible to prevent it
from ever happening again. This propels the society into a First
Turning Recovery Era, and the four-turning generational cycle.

This differs from a massive famine or pandemic in two significant
ways: First, moral deterioration is not involved, and second, nothing
can be done to prevent it from happening again.

There are always "lessons learned" from a massive famine or pandemic,
or other catastrophe, and they can be applied, but it's a very
different kind of generational cycle than a crisis war. Instead, this
feeds into the "58 year hypothesis," where the nation panics 58 years
later as the last survivors of the catastrophe are retiring.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:23 am

John wrote:
Moi wrote: blah blah blah...


I can't agree with that. ...

What's important ... is ... an "explosive" genocidal act that is so horrible that both
winners and losers are willing to do anything possible to prevent it
from ever happening again. ...


I agree. That's a great clarification. It's the horror of "they are killing us just because we are us!", and the anger that makes reciprocation "acceptable", that is the real turning of the worm.

THAT'S what I'm crying about whenever I watch Fiddler on the Roof. THAT'S what I'm crying about whenever I watch The Sound of Music.

Perhaps that's what I cry about when I think of my (claimed) people during the irish famine. The "landowners" were purposefully exporting food from a country where vast numbers were starving. They intentionally killed us simply because we were "there", because we were us.

..certainly not unique to the irish, of course. The very nature of history is attempted annihilation. It's in the nature of the eater/eatee relationship. Be the eater, not the eatee.

And nothin' is gonna stop the wheel.

The only real "cure" to the wheel? Smaller groups of eaters coordinating with each other. How do you do that?

..good question. Any suggestions?

(( BTW, Fiddler on the Roof made me Catholic in my "old-ish age"! Strange story. Not gonna go into it now, though. :) ))

jmm1184
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby jmm1184 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:13 pm

I'm not really bothered that the Awakening climax could occur
at the 60 year mark. Some milestones in the generational timelines,
particularly the turning boundaries, are pretty much fixed, but
others are not. The Regeneracy usually occurs in the fourth turning,
but it could be postponed to the fifth turning. And the Awakening
climax, which resolves the generational issues, usually occurs
in the Awakening or Unraveling eras, but there's no reason why
it can't occur a little later.


So how does that work? It just seems like far too long for the generational forces to be unreconciled, especially if the generational awakening climax occurs after the 58 year panic, which implies the older generations have died off or retired to the point of no longer having influence over a society's direction. Ergo, no more generational conflict between the crisis war and post-crisis war generations.


There's one thing that stands out that explains it: The horrific
Bengal famine of 1942-43. This famine devastated the entire region,
and the people would have had very little energy to fight in the
Partition war four years later. And it was a man-made famine, so
there were plenty of people to be blamed. That could explain why the
Bengal crisis war was postponed for two generations.

As a related matter, the effect of Ireland's great potato famine
on the region's timeline has never been satisfactorily explained.


This issue has also troubled me. The Irish potato famine is a great puzzle, because there does not appear to have been any genocidal violence associated with it, and yet the effect it had on Ireland and the Irish collective memory is that of a crisis war.

Famines have always been very interesting, because some of them seem to have been of such a great magnitude that they caused a first-turning reset. The famine of 1876-1878 in South India is another famine that I suspect may have caused a first-turning reset. But I couldn't tell you why, which is why I'm hesitant to conclusively declare it a "crisis war" - because there was no genocidal violence involved. It doesn't make sense why some famines, like the Irish potato famine, would cause a first-turning reset, while most famines do not.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:49 pm

jmm1184 wrote: ...

This issue has also troubled me. The Irish potato famine is a great puzzle, because there does not appear to have been any genocidal violence associated with it, and yet the effect it had on Ireland and the Irish collective memory is that of a crisis war.

Famines have always been very interesting, because some of them seem to have been of such a great magnitude that they caused a first-turning reset. The famine of 1876-1878 in South India is another famine that I suspect may have caused a first-turning reset. But I couldn't tell you why, which is why I'm hesitant to conclusively declare it a "crisis war" - because there was no genocidal violence involved. It doesn't make sense why some famines, like the Irish potato famine, would cause a first-turning reset, while most famines do not.


The difference is the (perceived) "intention" of the famine.

The perception of the irish famine is that it was intentionally taken advantage of, at least, by the english to "exterminate" the troublesome irish. That is a genocidal act.

Generational Crises are fueled by the threat of genocide. Anything used as a weapon in the cause of (even perceived) genocide will fuel the crisis.

Droughts, famines, occupations, technological superiority, tech change, racism, "superiorityism" (which is really just racism), and other "weapons", can be used to threaten genocide, if they can be attributed to a "them" that is eliminating an "us", and that threat fuels the oncoming crisis.

John
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Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby John » Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:19 am

jmm1184 wrote:> So how does that work? It just seems like far too long for the
> generational forces to be unreconciled, especially if the
> generational awakening climax occurs after the 58 year panic,
> which implies the older generations have died off or retired to
> the point of no longer having influence over a society's
> direction. Ergo, no more generational conflict between the crisis
> war and post-crisis war generations.


Well, let's look at the Regeneracy events. We live in a time when
countries like Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco are
going to have their next crisis war almost 100 years after the climax
of the last one, which means that the Regeneracy occurs almost 100
years after the climax, instead of at 58 years. If that's possible,
then the Awakening climax could certainly do something similar. In
both cases they're rare outlier events, but there's no reason why it
can't happen that way.

Or here's another way of looking at it. All of the events in
the generational timeline are mostly generated by the timeline
itself -- generational boundaries and even the crisis climax
have to occur at fairly fixed times related to other events in
the timeline.

But not the Awakening climax or the Regeneracy. Both of these
are affected, and perhaps triggered, by exogenous events -- events
outside the timeline itself. That fact alone makes them different
from the other timeline events, and indicates that they're not
restricted in time.

In fact, maybe we should generalize. What other exogenous events
affect the timeline? Maybe there's a way of defining and classifying
them, so that the Awakening climax and the Regeneracy are nothing
special, but just two of a series of events that occur from one crisis
war to the next that have some effect on the generational timeline.

jmm1184 wrote:> This issue has also troubled me. The Irish potato famine is a
> great puzzle, because there does not appear to have been any
> genocidal violence associated with it, and yet the effect it had
> on Ireland and the Irish collective memory is that of a crisis
> war.

> Famines have always been very interesting, because some of them
> seem to have been of such a great magnitude that they caused a
> first-turning reset. The famine of 1876-1878 in South India is
> another famine that I suspect may have caused a first-turning
> reset. But I couldn't tell you why, which is why I'm hesitant to
> conclusively declare it a "crisis war" - because there was no
> genocidal violence involved. It doesn't make sense why some
> famines, like the Irish potato famine, would cause a first-turning
> reset, while most famines do not.


Whether any event causes a first turning reset depends on the how
thoroughly the existing generational infrastructure is destroyed.
I've hypothesized in the past that the likelihood of a first turning
reset is related to the percentage of the population that consists of
survivors of the previous crisis war (usually heroes and nomads). So
if the percentage is high, then a small war or small famine won't
cause a first turning reset, but if the percentage is low, then it
might. There's a lot to analyze here, but that's the hypothesis.

jmm1184
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Postby jmm1184 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:24 am

Whether any event causes a first turning reset depends on the how
thoroughly the existing generational infrastructure is destroyed.
I've hypothesized in the past that the likelihood of a first turning
reset is related to the percentage of the population that consists of
survivors of the previous crisis war (usually heroes and nomads). So
if the percentage is high, then a small war or small famine won't
cause a first turning reset, but if the percentage is low, then it
might. There's a lot to analyze here, but that's the hypothesis.


Interesting. One thing I suspect in the Irish Potato famine that made it different than your "typical" famine, is both proportion of the deaths and the fact that it caused mass emigration from Ireland. It could be that Ireland experienced a first-turning due to both a large proportion of the population dying from the famine and to an equally large portion emigrating from Ireland. Both events could be traumatic enough to change the generational dynamics of Irish society.

One good indicator is that the Irish memory of the famine is much greater than is typical for most societies. In most societies famines are largely forgotten or become associated with related or contemporary wars. But for the Irish the famine has a much greater imprint on their historical memory, I suspect due to the high number of deaths and an equally high number of people who left. With much of Ireland depopulated (I think Ireland has only just recently regained the population it had before the famine), a kind of first-turning reset occurred. The lack of violence can be explained by the depopulation. So much of Ireland was devastated that there was little energy to fight a new rebellion against the British.

Thus, similar to other first-turning resets (the Puritan settlement of Plymouth Rock, the Great Trek of the Boers, and others), while no genocidal violence was involved, the upheaval the population underwent was so great that it reset the generational dynamics.

While generational dynamics is set around crisis wars, the main indicator that propels generational dynamics is some sort of event that is so powerful that it marks a turning point in the collective memory of a people. This is usually a crisis war, with both the need for the group to unite in the face of destruction, and in the horrific violence done to the group by "the other." The memories of both the horrors of the wars and the memory of the shared effort mark the survivors for life. Even if the society undergoes a horrific major war, such as WWII in Russia or WWI in Western Europe, if the "survivor" generations are still in power "post-crisis" generations will both rely on them for leadership and rebel or compete against their authority. Either way, the survivors set the standard.

A similar event can take place if the population undergoes collective upheaval, such as a massive famine (on the scale of the Irish Potato famine) or relocation as a group to a new place. The trauma and upheaval works the same as genocidal violence in a crisis war.


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