9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

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John
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9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by John »

9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea


China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline for war with India

** 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170809




Contents:
China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline for India to remove soldiers from Doklam
Trump threatens North Korea with 'fire and fury'


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, India, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Hu Zhiyong, Jawaharlal Nehru, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Coordinated fires
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:14 pm
Location: Merica

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by Coordinated fires »

John, In your view is it possible for a crisis era to end without war? Is there any precedent for this and if so, how was war averted?

Also, what is your view regarding Strauss and Howe's generational archetype framework, describing how individuals actually move through the historical cycle and in turn help shape it. I'm finding it somewhat counter intuitive and I haven't seen you refer to it much in your articles. It's sort of a paradox that the individual can not alter the zeitgeist, yet it is individuals, through their individual actions and attitudes, that define it.
Politics is war by other means

Guest

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by Guest »

Here's what I think is going to happen: Nothing. Since Trump (and Russia and China) are chess masters let's consider the possible moves ...

A) We nuke them first, a "pre-emptive" or "preventitive" attack. So, America becomes the first nation in world history to launch a nuclear attack on another nation which it had not previously been at war with. If you think the world hates and despises America now, wait until this happens (you know there will be pictures complete with 3-year-olds with melted faces). Probability this occurs: Almost zero.

B) America launches a conventional "surgical" attack. This is probably the most likely military option. Still, I don't think North Korea is going to just "take" such an attack. They will respond, probably with a massive attack on American troops in S. Korea and the nation of South Korea. It will then be "game on." Korean War II 65 years later. Can America literally fight such a war or have the willpower to fight such a war and endure such massive casulties? Does Trump want to be the president who got us into such a war? Probability this occurs: 0 to three percent.

C) North Korea does what it just said it is going to do and launches a nuclear strike on Guam. First, I doubt they can even do this. If the CIA and the media says they can, this means they can't. But say they can. North Korea just nuked an American territory. America will respond with massive nuclear counter-attack. 90 percent of the population of this country could be annihilated, including its leader and everyone he might care about. We're told North Korea and its leader are crazy and suicidal. Maybe their leader is a tad crazy, but he's not certifiably crazy plus eager to leave this world. Probability this happens: 0 to 1/4 of one percent.

Also, behind the scenes, I'm betting that China IS playing the gold card. "Trump, do what you want but if you start a fuckin' major war or nuclear war we're going to make sure the world knows how little gold you really have and let them know how much we really have. We're also going to dump every treasury bond we have. We'll miss selling to Wal-Mart and Amazon, but the world's a big place. We'll sell to every other country except yours. BTW, what's going to go on the shelves of Wal-Mart without Chinese-made goods? Who is going to make your people's I-phones?

And there's this bit of trivia: We're broke and getting a lot broker by the week. Also: The military is already over-extended and war-fatigued. Our best and most gung-ho troops have already retired or left the service. If we do give it the old college try, our war efforts in all the other theaters we are engaged in will invariably suffer even greater setbacks, perhaps even more humiliation.

Bottom line: No war with North Korea. Now Syria and Iran ... The neocons won't give up easily (and Trump is now clearly one of them). But let's dodge one war at a time.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:Here's what I think is going to happen: Nothing. Since Trump (and Russia and China) are chess masters let's consider the possible moves ...

A) We nuke them first, ... Probability this occurs: Almost zero.

B) America launches a conventional "surgical" attack. ... Probability this occurs: 0 to three percent.

C) North Korea does what it just said it is going to do and launches a nuclear strike on Guam. First, I doubt they can even do this. If the CIA and the media says they can, this means they can't. ... Probability this happens: 0 to 1/4 of one percent.
..as regards C,.. "media-CIA-complex says X, then non-X is true",.. quite so. Odds are heavily that NK's "aim" sucks unicorn "horns", and "reentry" equates to "shards of molten metal falling from the sky".
Also, behind the scenes, I'm betting that China IS playing the gold card. "Trump, do what you want but if you start a fuckin' major war or nuclear war we're going to make sure the world knows how little gold you really have and let them know how much we really have. We're also going to dump every treasury bond we have. We'll miss selling to Wal-Mart and Amazon, but the world's a big place. We'll sell to every other country except yours. BTW, what's going to go on the shelves of Wal-Mart without Chinese-made goods? Who is going to make your people's I-phones?

And there's this bit of trivia: We're broke and getting a lot broker by the week. Also: The military is already over-extended and war-fatigued. Our best and most gung-ho troops have already retired or left the service. If we do give it the old college try, our war efforts in all the other theaters we are engaged in will invariably suffer even greater setbacks, perhaps even more humiliation.

Bottom line: No war with North Korea. Now Syria and Iran ... The neocons won't give up easily (and Trump is now clearly one of them). But let's dodge one war at a time.
My guess: The China-vs-Bhutan/India "crisis" will give China something to "trade" for quietly slapping NK down, leaving China having gotten what they want in Bhutan, and having the US look like they have pressured China into yanking Little Kimmie's chain.

Win-Win!

The goal is Can-Kicking-Down-the-Road, as nobody is quite ready for war just yet.

The only non-solution-solution is CKDtR, as while war is inevitable, the "when factor" is negotiable.

The REAL negotiation is between the war-hungry-publics and their governments, NOT between the future adversaries (the countries). As long as the publics can be fed their "fill" of nationalistic fuel they (the publics) won't demand war, but each feeding makes them hungrier and more likely to demand exponentially more fuel, until their government can't supply enough (short of actual war), at which point the rider is devoured by his saddled tiger.

Guest

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by Guest »

So in nine more days we find out who will blink in Bhutan?

Cant sleep

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by Cant sleep »

Aren't any of you afraid? I've had this disconcerting feeling for the last few days. I don't want to die. Tomorrow I'm going to eat BBQ ribs for lunch and have steak for dinner. I haven't eaten either in a long time. I don't know what to write. My mother told me my grandparents were afraid when they heard about Pearl Harbor. It was terrifying. In 1941, no one really knew if America would win. I don't think anyone will win this time. I can't sleep. I just stare out the window. How can you people joke about this?

psCargile
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:34 pm

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by psCargile »

If it happens it happens, what can you do about it?

We got the hardware to shoot them down, and intercept sub-orbit. But nukes should be your ace in the sleeve. If NK only has a few, they shouldn't want to waste them as a first strike. In our favor if they do.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Cant sleep wrote:Aren't any of you afraid? I've had this disconcerting feeling for the last few days. I don't want to die. Tomorrow I'm going to eat BBQ ribs for lunch and have steak for dinner. I haven't eaten either in a long time. I don't know what to write. My mother told me my grandparents were afraid when they heard about Pearl Harbor. It was terrifying. In 1941, no one really knew if America would win. I don't think anyone will win this time. I can't sleep. I just stare out the window. How can you people joke about this?
Because joking is better than paralysis, simply put. That's what sardonic humor is all about. Defiance in the face of evil(ness).

You'll need to have gotten your sleep, if any "major action" starts, so sleep well now. Sleep is a necessity, while worrying is not.

There's also the fact that, if you've been paying attention to the "ideas" on this site, it seems fairly certain that the "big antagonist" (China) is not quite ready to pull the trigger. They have more "setup" to accomplish.

Plus, if one sees the next big war as inevitable, and has "made peace" with that, there's no need to worry about it. And that makes it easier to see the "loopholes" that stave off the start of active hostilities that the countries involved can invoke to give themselves more time to prepare. Later is better than sooner, don'tcha think?

Aloha nui a me na pōmaikaʻi īa kakou!

Coordinated fires
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:14 pm
Location: Merica

Re: 9-Aug-17 World View -- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea / China sets apparent Aug 19 deadline

Post by Coordinated fires »

Cant sleep wrote:Aren't any of you afraid? I've had this disconcerting feeling for the last few days. I don't want to die. Tomorrow I'm going to eat BBQ ribs for lunch and have steak for dinner. I haven't eaten either in a long time. I don't know what to write. My mother told me my grandparents were afraid when they heard about Pearl Harbor. It was terrifying. In 1941, no one really knew if America would win. I don't think anyone will win this time. I can't sleep. I just stare out the window. How can you people joke about this?
Relax, nothing is going to happen because rational actors.
Politics is war by other means


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