5-Aug-17 World View -- China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau

[John]

5-Aug-17 World View -- China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau


China attempts to justify its claim to the Doklam Plateau

** 5-Aug-17 World View -- China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170805


Contents:
China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau
China attempts to justify its claim to the Doklam Plateau


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, India, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping, Rex Tillerson,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar

[Guest]

The Indians will definitely fight, because if they don't push back now, they will wake up and find Eastern India cut off from New Delhi. This is a red line the Indians will never allow to be crossed. And this is where it gets really dangerous. China doesn't need to steal land from Bhutan to survive, but India needs to preserve the Silliguri Corridor because India has no choice but to defend it if it wants to preserve the country. India will fight. It's the Chinese who are miscalculating.

[John]

> The Indians will definitely fight, because if they don't push back
> now, they will wake up and find Eastern India cut off from New
> Delhi. This is a red line the Indians will never allow to be
> crossed. And this is where it gets really dangerous. China doesn't
> need to steal land from Bhutan to survive, but India needs to
> preserve the Silliguri Corridor because India has no choice but to
> defend it if it wants to preserve the country. India will
> fight. It's the Chinese who are miscalculating.

You make a very good case. The problem is that this issue has turned
into an existential threat for both countries. I can't see China
backing down, and you say India can't back down. And there's a
November deadline because of the "People's Congress."

And according to the somewhat hysterical Global Times article, the
Chinese say that they will "annihilate" the Indian army, and it
wouldn't surprise me if they actually believe that. Needless to day,
the Indians don't agree. This is a disaster in the making, unless
someone can figure out a face-saving formula that both sides can agree
to.

[Guest]

This is a red line the Indians will never allow to be crossed.

Another red line. Great.

[jmm1184]

When China and India go to war, what do you think the immediate response of the international community will be, and how long will it take for other nations, particularly Pakistan, Russia, and the US to get involved?

[John]

> When China and India go to war, what do you think the immediate
> response of the international community will be, and how long will
> it take for other nations, particularly Pakistan, Russia, and the
> US to get involved?

If you're asking me, I'm not a psychic, but I would assume a few weeks
to a few months.

[Coordinated fires]

The Indians will definitely fight, because if they don't push back now, they will wake up and find Eastern India cut off from New Delhi. This is a red line the Indians will never allow to be crossed. And this is where it gets really dangerous. China doesn't need to steal land from Bhutan to survive, but India needs to preserve the Silliguri Corridor because India has no choice but to defend it if it wants to preserve the country. India will fight. It's the Chinese who are miscalculating.

I wonder if this will embolden the dormant insurgency in Nagaland if they sense that India will be unable to project power into the eastern provinces, or if the Chinese will seek to use them to destabilize the eastern provinces.

[jmm1184]

If you're asking me, I'm not a psychic, but I would assume a few weeks
to a few months.

I guess I was meaning do you think the US is more likely to enter in fairly quickly, or would it take some time of political consideration or a direct attack to get us involved? After all, we waited two years to get involved in WWII.

The other consideration is how long it would take other nations, namely Pakistan and Russia, to get involved. Do you think they would get involved quickly or would it take more direct provocation to get them involved?

[John]

> I guess I was meaning do you think the US is more likely to enter
> in fairly quickly, or would it take some time of political
> consideration or a direct attack to get us involved? After all, we
> waited two years to get involved in WWII.

> The other consideration is how long it would take other nations,
> namely Pakistan and Russia, to get involved. Do you think they
> would get involved quickly or would it take more direct
> provocation to get them involved?

It depends on what you mean by "get involved."

For example, in a war between India and China, the US might provide
satellite intelligence to India from day one.

Also, I read somewhere that India only has enough ammunition to last
30 days, so the US or Russia might start supplying ammunition right
away.

As today's article describes, the war might spread to the Indian Ocean
fairly quickly. It could also spread to Kashmir very quickly, with
Pakistan directly entering the war as combatant.

I would expect, within a few months, for a full-scale world war to be
in progress, with nuclear weapons being used.

[jmm1184]

It depends on what you mean by "get involved."

For example, in a war between India and China, the US might provide
satellite intelligence to India from day one.

Also, I read somewhere that India only has enough ammunition to last
30 days, so the US or Russia might start supplying ammunition right
away.

As today's article describes, the war might spread to the Indian Ocean
fairly quickly. It could also spread to Kashmir very quickly, with
Pakistan directly entering the war as combatant.

I would expect, within a few months, for a full-scale world war to be
in progress, with nuclear weapons being used.

Ah very interesting. I could see a scenario in which China decides to declare war on and attack the USA after learning of our assistance with the Indians. The one character I'm greatly intrigued by is Russia. I seem to recall you saying a while back that India and Russia are close allies, and that Russia would be more likely to come to India's aid before the US would do so. Is this accurate?

Moreover, I had a sobering conversation with a friend today. He said he is very sad and scared because of the real possibility that he will not be able to go to college due to being conscripted into the armed forces (he is only 17). Before any comments about millennials not wanting to do their duty he has repeatedly expressed interest into joining the armed forces, but after getting his college education.

I think it is important to remember, especially when tempted to bash millennials for all the negative stereotypes the media gives them, especially young millennial men, that it is precisely these "entitled" individuals who will be fighting for the survival of this great country, and since I am only 26 that will probably include myself.

Kyrie Eleison.