26-Jul-17 World View -- China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau

[John]

26-Jul-17 World View -- China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau

India says that it will remain 'firm and resolute' but 'reasonable'

** 26-Jul-17 World View -- China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170726



Contents:
China escalates its military threats over its border dispute with India at Doklam Plateau
India says that it will remain 'firm and resolute' but 'reasonable'


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, India, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau,
Arun Jaitley, 1962 Sino-Indian war, Lia Youfa,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Nine-dash line

[Coordinated fires]

Point of interest. China and India did not have nuclear weapons in 1962. I wonder what effect this will have in terms of deterrence/escalation/deescalation.

I guess we'll finally get to find out if two nuclear powers can really engage in limited conventional warfare without escalation.

[Guest]

Point of interest. China and India did not have nuclear weapons in 1962. I wonder what effect this will have in terms of deterrence/escalation/deescalation.

I guess we'll finally get to find out if two nuclear powers can really engage in limited conventional warfare without escalation.

We already have seen that: India and Pakistan fought in 1999 (The Kargil War). Thousands were killed and wounded, and no nuclear war.

[Coordinated fires]

Point of interest. China and India did not have nuclear weapons in 1962. I wonder what effect this will have in terms of deterrence/escalation/deescalation.

I guess we'll finally get to find out if two nuclear powers can really engage in limited conventional warfare without escalation.

We already have seen that: India and Pakistan fought in 1999 (The Kargil War). Thousands were killed and wounded, and no nuclear war.

I'm aware of the Kargil Heights conflict however it was later revealed that Pakistan's nuclear delivery systems were not yet operational at the time of the war, having tested a warhead only months prior. Therefore Pakistan did not actually have the capacity to escalate the conflict. Nedvertheless both sides engaged in brinksmanship, India mobilized their nuclear weapons , Pakistan moved their warheads closer to the border.

Before things could escalate the US and the Ussr were able to exercise leverage over India and Pakistan respectively, including a last minute phone call personally from Bill Clinton to Nawaz Sharif, to deescalate the conflict. Who holds such leverage over the PRC today?

trivia games aside, a large scale modern conflict between nuclear armed states is basically still an unprecedented scenario.

[John]

> Point of interest. China and India did not have nuclear weapons in
> 1962. I wonder what effect this will have in terms of
> deterrence/escalation/deescalation.

> I guess we'll finally get to find out if two nuclear powers can
> really engage in limited conventional warfare without
> escalation.

> We already have seen that: India and Pakistan fought in 1999 (The
> Kargil War). Thousands were killed and wounded, and no nuclear
> war.

> I'm aware of the Kargil Heights conflict however it was later
> revealed that Pakistan's nuclear delivery systems were not yet
> operational at the time of the war, having tested a warhead only
> months prior. Therefore Pakistan did not actually have the
> capacity to escalate the conflict. Nedvertheless both sides
> engaged in brinksmanship, India mobilized their nuclear weapons ,
> Pakistan moved their warheads closer to the border.

> Before things could escalate the US and the Ussr were able to
> exercise leverage over India and Pakistan respectively, including
> a last minute phone call personally from Bill Clinton to Nawaz
> Sharif, to deescalate the conflict. Who holds such leverage over
> the PRC today?

> trivia games aside, a large scale modern conflict between nuclear
> armed states is basically still an unprecedented scenario.

Another big difference is that the 1990s were a generational
Unraveling era, when the last of the survivors of the previous
crisis wars (Communist Revolution and Partition War) were still
running things, and were determined to force a compromise.

Today, in a Crisis era, there is almost no desire at all for
compromise, with high levels of nationalism and xenophobia. If a war
began, using nuclear weapons would be considered preferable to
backing down.

[Guest]

Do you think there really could be a war between India and China? Most commentators seem to think there is almost zero chance of it happening.

[John]

> Do you think there really could be a war between India and China?
> Most commentators seem to think there is almost zero chance of it
> happening.

Most commentators are still living in the 1990s, reliving their
childhoods.

[Coordinated fires]

Do you think there really could be a war between India and China? Most commentators seem to think there is almost zero chance of it happening.

Pundits are always analyzing the last war.

[Guest]

> Do you think there really could be a war between India and China?
> Most commentators seem to think there is almost zero chance of it
> happening.

Most commentators are still living in the 1990s, reliving their
childhoods.

If a war breaks out between India and China, does it have to go global? If China quickly overwhelmed the Indian army, captured the territory, and declared victory, wouldn't India just accept a fait accompli?

[John]

> If a war breaks out between India and China, does it have to go
> global? If China quickly overwhelmed the Indian army, captured the
> territory, and declared victory, wouldn't India just accept a fait
> accompli?

That's exactly what happened after Hitler annexed first Austria, and
then Czechoslovakia. Those victories emboldened Hitler, who thought
he could get away with anything. But then when Hitler invaded Poland,
WW II began.

I don't believe that India or the West would just accept China's
invasion and annexation of any territory belonging to India or Bhutan.
But even if they did, the successful invasion and annexation of this
territory, following the successful annexations in the South China
Sea, would embolden China to annex something else -- and there are
many pieces of Indian territory along the China-India border that
China would like to annex.

But I don't think that will happen. I believe that after
China invades Doklam Plateau, India and China will be in an
escalating war situation from which neither side will back down.