22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile / Socialist Venezuela

[John]

22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile


Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes despite hyperinflation

** 22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170522


Contents:
North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile
Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes despite hyperinflation


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Paul Wee,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro

[Geoffrey Britain]

I'm doubtful that the N. Koreans are suicidally lusting for nuclear revenge upon America. Nuclear ICBM capability will however be essential in threatening major regional population centers, so as to deter U.S. interference when N. Korea invades the South. 150+ MILLION innocent lives is a powerful deterent.

Socialism is inherently unsustainable, as it relies upon stealing ever more from the productive with the theft going to the elite, their supporters such as corrupted police and military and the unproductive, who demand that the gravy train continue. As the productive lose hope, it starts to collapse. As that collapse accelerates, the elite turn to brutality, desperately clinging to power, which requires the enslavement of the populace. It has ever been so, as predictable as a Japanese Kabuki play.

[Guest]

I'm more worried about North Koreans using biological weapons against America. That weapon could be carried in a fountain pen or even an unwitting human carrier.

[Geoffrey Britain]

I'm not especially concerned with biologicals because of the natural barriers to their effectiveness. My admittedly layman's understanding is that deadliness and effective transmission are opposed. To be an effective biological weapon of mass destruction, the death rate must be high enough to ensure societal collapse. But the higher the death rate the quicker it burns out, which naturally limits the spread. Look at ebola in Africa which self-extinguished. Once it hit a village, not enough left to effectively transmit it to other villages.

Evidently biologicals are a very tough nut to crack, which is not to say it can't be done.

[Guest]

I'm not especially concerned with biologicals because of the natural barriers to their effectiveness. My admittedly layman's understanding is that deadliness and effective transmission are opposed. To be an effective biological weapon of mass destruction, the death rate must be high enough to ensure societal collapse. But the higher the death rate the quicker it burns out, which naturally limits the spread. Look at ebola in Africa which self-extinguished. Once it hit a village, not enough left to effectively transmit it to other villages.

Evidently biologicals are a very tough nut to crack, which is not to say it can't be done.

Weaponized Ebola would kill billions.

[Guest 5]

It looks like the war is on.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-attac ... ays-2017-5

The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman — setting the stage for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Speaking Monday to a rapt audience at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Friedman said that while it was unlikely the US would take action before President Donald Trump returns home at the weekend, North Korea's actions appeared to have "offered the US no alternative" to a clash.

I guess this is it.

How does it feel to get this one right?

[John]

> It looks like the war is on.

> http://www.businessinsider.com/us-attac ... ays-2017-5

>

The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to
> Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman — setting the stage
> for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic
> consequences.

> Speaking Monday to a rapt audience at the 2017 Strategic
> Investment Conference in Orlando, Friedman said that while it was
> unlikely the US would take action before President Donald Trump
> returns home at the weekend, North Korea's actions appeared to
> have "offered the US no alternative" to a clash.

> I guess this is it.

> How does it feel to get this one right?

George Friedman's prediction is silly. Friedman has no special
expertise on North Korea that I'm aware of. Friedman has no clue what
Trump is going to do in North Korea. I doubt that Trump himself
knows.

According to wikipedia, Friedman in 1991 co-authored a book called
"The Coming War with Japan." I rarely read Friedman's stuff, but what
I've seen is not particularly insightful.

Here's my guess: Friedman is making this prediction to get publicity
for himself and Mauldin -- which means that it's inciteful, not
insightful. He's hoping that something will happen so that he can
claim to be the only one who saw it coming, and then he'll be a big
winner. And if nothing happens, then the prediction will be quickly
forgotten, because Friedman is well-loved. (I say this snarkily
because I know from personal experience that getting predictions right
only makes you hated.)

The story is told that the way that the Olde Farmer's Almanac became
a best seller for centuries is that they predicted a snowstorm for
mid-June, and by chance the prediction came true.

[Guest 5]

> It looks like the war is on.

> http://www.businessinsider.com/us-attac ... ays-2017-5

>

The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to
> Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman — setting the stage
> for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic
> consequences.

> Speaking Monday to a rapt audience at the 2017 Strategic
> Investment Conference in Orlando, Friedman said that while it was
> unlikely the US would take action before President Donald Trump
> returns home at the weekend, North Korea's actions appeared to
> have "offered the US no alternative" to a clash.

> I guess this is it.

> How does it feel to get this one right?

The story is told that the way that the Olde Farmer's Almanac became
a best seller for centuries is that they predicted a snowstorm for
mid-June, and by chance the prediction came true.

The version I heard said it was July and that the prediction was a misprint.

I hope you are right. I don't want a nuclear war.

[shoshin]

John, " inciteful, not insightful "!

I love it! Thanks again for being there.

[Guest 5]

What do you make of this, John?

https://www.voanews.com/a/third-naval-s ... 73637.html

Sources: 3rd US Naval Strike Force Deployed to Deter North Korea

The United States is sending a third aircraft carrier strike force to the western Pacific region in an apparent warning to North Korea to deter its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, two sources have told VOA.

The USS Nimitz, one of the world’s largest warships, will join two other supercarriers, the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Ronald Reagan, in the western Pacific, the sources told VOA's Steve Herman.

The U.S. military has rarely simultaneously deployed three aircraft carriers to the same region.