27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting

[John]

27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting

The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement


** 27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170427


Contents:
Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Code of Conduct, CoC,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Delfin Lorenzan, Albert Del Rosario, North Korea

[Trevor]

Can't say I'm surprised. Appeasement is always popular and attempting a more aggressive move is always seen as warmongering, unnecessarily provocative, imperialistic, and so on.

Confrontation will lead to a war as well, but to use the example of WWII, appeasement gave Germany another year to mobilize and more resources to do it with. Britain and France were barely rearming throughout the 1930's. It was only after the rest of Czechoslovakia was taken that they finally started to realize that another war was inevitable. Even then, they re-armed only half-heartedly.

[Geoffrey Britain]

Of course there's a solution. It's just that it's a horrifically costly one.
The reason why that solution, a preemptive nuclear attack on Pyongyang is rational is because failure to launch a nuclear first strike guarantees a much higher price to be paid later.

China attacking America makes no sense if it cannot nuetralize our submarine based ballistic nuclear missile capability. Were China to wipe out all of America's military assets in a sneak attack, save just our nuclear subs, it would be for China a pyrrhic victory, since China would become a glass parking lot.

However, as a deterrent measure, China's military buildup makes perfect sense as preparation in seizing Taiwan. China is betting that when the time comes, America will not honor a treaty that has become suicidal.

Finally, had Chamberlain, Paris and America all firmly indicated a firm resolve to go to war with Hitler over the Sudentenland (Czechoslovakia) it would not have resulted in war sooner since 1) Hitler wasn't ready at that point, 2) Britian & France backing down convinced Hitler that they were weak and 3) Hitler's blitzkrieg tactics would have been much less effective against a mobilized foe.

[Guest]

I think Taiwan would another Poland, not another Austria. I believe America would defend Taiwan. Personally, I hope America does defend Taiwan. Taiwan is a true democracy, unlike the thieving gang of bandits in mainland China that call themselves Communists and have secret bank accounts all over the world.

I think the real test will be the Senkaku Islands: Will America defend them?

[Guest]

I doubt America will help anyone in Asia now because of the crisis in North Korea. China has Trump eating out of the palm of its hand. This would be the perfect time to attack Taiwan.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

The US will not defend Taiwan. They WILL defend anything beyond Taiwan, however.

Every chinese fishing ship will become a target for "anyone with guns" ("pirates" unofficially sanctioned by "the non-Chinese" powers) and will be picked off one by one. The West's excuse will be, "WE didn't do it!".

If China want's to guard every fishing vessel with an Air Force plane and/or Naval vessel, they can go for it, and waste massive amounts of resources.

China WILL take Taiwan, but they won't nuke anyone until they're ready, and they're not ready.

Aloha nui ia kākou!