14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday / China's tripwires

[John]

14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday

China's tripwires for invading North Korea

** 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170414



Contents:
North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday
Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile
China's tripwires for invading North Korea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Day of the Sun, Kim Il-Sung,
Kim Jong-un, 38 North, Punggye-ri, Carl Vinson carrier strike group,
Syria, Sarin gas, VX nerve agent, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, China, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island

[Trevor]

Just had a couple questions involving this and the Clash of Civilizations:

I noticed until a few years ago, you sounded at least relatively confident that China was going to win the war, citing their enormous population, intelligence, industry, and their economic potential. Lately, though, it sounds like you believe it'll be an American and Western "Victory". What prompted the change?

Second, what would you expect Muslims in India to do when the time comes? Religious-motivated violence seems a common occurrence there and India makes Islamophobia in America and Europe look trivial by comparison. Would you expect the Muslim minority to fight alongside Hindus or make common cause with Pakistan and Bengaldesh?

I'd expect North Korea's child dictator to be deposed sooner or later, since he appears to be more and more unstable. Whether it's China, the United States, or his own government, I think his days are numbered.

[John]

> Just had a couple questions involving this and the Clash of
> Civilizations:

> I noticed until a few years ago, you sounded at least relatively
> confident that China was going to win the war, citing their
> enormous population, intelligence, industry, and their economic
> potential. Lately, though, it sounds like you believe it'll be an
> American and Western "Victory". What prompted the change?

Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but I think that gradually over
the years I've become less pessimistic than I used to be. However, I
wouldn't use the word "Victory." I would use the word "Survival."
You're still going to have dozens of American cities destroyed by
Chinese nuclear weapons. You're still going to have tens or hundreds
of thousands of American refugees. You're still going to have disease
and starvation. But I think where my opinion has changed over the
years is that I believe that the US government is preparing for that
scenario, and preparing for the country to survive. I don't believe
that a Chinese ground invasion of any substantial size is possible,
and anyway, the Mexicans and Canadians would be united with us to
oppose it.

However, things will be a lot worse in Asia. China's massive
population may well overrun Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, and even
Japan. India and China will have a massive war, with various Central
and Southern Asian countries taking sides.

> Second, what would you expect Muslims in India to do when the time
> comes? Religious-motivated violence seems a common occurrence
> there and India makes Islamophobia in America and Europe look
> trivial by comparison. Would you expect the Muslim minority to
> fight alongside Hindus or make common cause with Pakistan and
> Bengaldesh?

> I'd expect North Korea's child dictator to be deposed sooner or
> later, since he appears to be more and more unstable. Whether it's
> China, the United States, or his own government, I think his days
> are numbered.

Generally speaking, people want to defend their homes and families.
So I would expect Muslims in Kashmir and Punjab to side with the
separatists and so with Pakistan, while I would expect most Muslims
elsewhere in the country to side with India.

[michael]

John--

First of all thank you for all your excellent work over the years. I have been reading your site for some time but this is my first post. It's also a post I have been intending to write for some time. I have the million-dollar question for you: Where, in your opinion, is the best location for someone to survive this upcoming war?

A little about me, I am a well-travelled jack-of-all-trades living in the UK. Chomsky got me interested in politics and if pressed I would call myself a malthusian. I try to be objective and get my information from a wide range of sources; independent and mainstream, and not just the reporters who I agree with or find 'likeable'. I never buy into mainstream news hysteria and do not scare easily. But right now I am absolutely terrified.

If "any of the military actions" in your article take place, my intention is to drop everything and get on a plane (with any family members I can convince) before the mass panic happens. But as for a destination...I'm at a loss. My first instinct would be New Zealand (isolated, localised economy, nuclear weapon free zone) or somewhere in South America (fewer nuclear targets), _maybe_ even Switzerland (neutral, strong civil defence)...but really I don't have a clue, and nor, it seems, does anyone else. I would really appreciate your input.

[Guest]

But right now I am absolutely terrified.

If "any of the military actions" in your article take place, my intention is to drop everything and get on a plane (with any family members I can convince) before the mass panic happens. But as for a destination...I'm at a loss.

Hahaha! Bud, when you panic, everyone else will be too! You should have made your preps years ago. If you want to leave, go today. Don't wait. If you're in the UK when the panic begins (most likely in your case), head to the Inner and Outer Hebrides. St. Kilda ought to be about right

Buy a cheap fiberglass sailboat and sail north. You can live in it if you have to; just dock on one of the islands. Later you can sail to one of the uninhabited islands, build a small shelter, and grow potatoes. If you are a jack of all trades, you can make yourself useful to the Scots. If you can somehow secure a firearm, perhaps an Lee-Enfield rifle and some bullets, you'll have a big advantage over most in Europe.

I think this is good advice. Just don't panic. Keep your head. If you really want to live through WW 3, you'll have to be tough.

Or you can just accept the end with the Oriental fatalism that seems to be popular on this site.

[michael]

Thanks for replying. Assuming then, that I leave today, where do you think (in the world) would be a good choice? (Leaving aside St. Kilda as a last resort.) There must be isolated communities somewhere with a more localised food supply which have a higher chance of survival.

Bud, when you panic, everyone else will be too!

I basically agree with everything you've said. However something which has consistently amazed me for the last 15 years is the ability of people in western countries to live in denial (and the media's ability to put out utterly false information). I don't think it's completely ridiculous to think that this denial will continue, even as these events are _starting_ to play out (and are being downplayed by said media). Just being slightly more aware and being able to get to an airport a few hours earlier could be the difference between life and death. I realise this sounds like clutching at straws but I think it's at least worth discussion.

Anyway I better start learning how to make pemmican and grow potatoes. Out of curiosity, have you done your prepping? Or are you one of the fatalists

[Guest]

There must be isolated communities somewhere with a more localised food supply which have a higher chance of survival.

There are isolated communities, but they don't advertise. These people are survivalists. They know what would happen if word got out about their redoubt. Imagine an ocean liner is torpedoed in the Atlantic and a lifeboat full of people hears the cries of a thousand passengers shouting for help, what do you think they would do? They would row in the opposite direction to avoid being swamped and sunk.

It's probably too late in the game to find one now. If you could, only your skills would be evaluated for admission. Are you a medical professional? A carpenter? A tailor? A farmer? That's all that will matter. An extra can of beans won't mean anything.

Bud, when you panic, everyone else will be too!

Consider this to be Rule #1

I don't think it's completely ridiculous to think that this denial will continue, even as these events are _starting_ to play out (and are being downplayed by said media). Just being slightly more aware and being able to get to an airport a few hours earlier could be the difference between life and death.

Things already are in motion.

Anyway I better start learning how to make pemmican and grow potatoes. Out of curiosity, have you done your prepping? Or are you one of the fatalists

I plan to be mobile. I have survived dire situations. I have always regretted some of the places and events I put myself in. For a long time I had wished that I hadn't gone through them. But now, with the world on the brink, I believe that these traumatic experiences have left me psychologically prepared for what is probably to come. I never believed that one day the world would become so bad that my experiences would benefit me. That's how bad things might become. Imagine wishing that you had never been born, and really meaning it. That's how bad it got for me. That's probably how bad it will get for a lot of people. If you were under siege in Syria, you would might feel that way now.

Do I plan to survive? Depends on how bad things get.

Have I prepped? Not really. I've never been in a bad situation that allowed anyone to stay put. I have learned to be mobile. Redoubts are eventually discovered. So are isolated communities. Don't expect a happy ending. happy endings only exist in Hollywood movies.

Take my advice, bullets, beans, and bread won't help you if you break down psychologically. Mental strength has always been more important to survival than physical strength.

Also, reliable friends. One reliable friend is worth more than a thousand untested people. You might have to cut loose friends and even family members if you want to survive. That's harsh, but that's what life has taught me. If you don't trust someone, get away from them immediately.

Ask a Bosnian Muslim refugee what it is like to live in a country that is is utterly obliterated around you; that ceases to exist, that's currency loses all value, where national and local governments fail, and ask them what it is like to be trapped there and what they had to do to survive. That will be you.

[michael]

Great points.

I plan to be mobile. I have survived dire situations. I have always regretted some of the places and events I put myself in. For a long time I had wished that I hadn't gone through them. But now, with the world on the brink, I believe that these traumatic experiences have left me psychologically prepared for what is probably to come.

...

Have I prepped? Not really. I've never been in a bad situation that allowed anyone to stay put.

These are my thoughts exactly: Mobility. Even if I had access to a private field of crops I would never feel safe and staying in one place wouldn't give me anything to live for. I have been in traumatic situations where I could only depend on myself and survived. I have had no problems in the past with staying moving and cutting close friends out of my life when I realised they were holding me back. I think this outsider perspective is the reason why I am the only person I know who realises how bad things have become.

I don't think I've been very clear in what I'm trying to say. My intention isn't to join a survivalist community at the last minute and mooch off their hard work. It is simply to be living in an area where I have a better chance of survival than I do right now. Regardless of where I am when society collapses I will have to stay moving. But today, right now, I could go to the airport and fly to a continent of my choice. Somewhere that is even slightly less likely to be hit hard by fallout/famine/mass migrations of people.

why I'm thinking the southern hemisphere would be a good starting point:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nwfz

for what it's worth, I mostly work as a handyman/carpenter

[Guest]

You have a great skill. If you're good at it, you will always have work.

I personally wouldn't choose South America, but if I had to make a choice, I would stick to Uruguay, Chile, or Argentina. Let me be blunt and say avoid any country with a large black (Brazil) or native Indian population. The larger those populations are, the most problems there are. The farther south you go, the better off you will be. Keep in mind, you are a foreigner. You might not get the reception you are hoping for. Do you speak Spanish?

I think you are hoping to relocate and build a new life in a semi-functioning society. Try New Zealand, but head to the southern islands. Auckland is brimming with migrants. Multiculturalism doesn't work. Multiracial societies within one culture can work, but multicultural societies lack social cohesion. In a severe crisis, that will lead to disorder and societal break down. Southern NZ is earthquake prone, so the migrants have avoided it for the most part. The Maori hate immigrants, especially the Chinese.

I would stay with your own kind and avoid a lot of trouble.

[CH86]

The North Koreans are the fools. And now they will have to face the power of the world superpower, the US military who has finally lost patience with them and called their bluff.