11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

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John
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11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Postby John » Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:51 pm

11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Report: Trump administration shuts out Russia and Turkey in Syria

** 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170311.htm#e170311



Contents:
ISIS claims responsibility for hospital attack in Kabul, Afghanistan
CENTCOM commander: Afghanistan 'stalemate' requires 'thousands' more US troops
Report: Trump administration shuts out Russia and Turkey in Syria


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Pakistan, India,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afghan Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, Pashtuns,
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
Hanif Atmar, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM,
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU,
John W. Nicholson, CENTCOM, Joseph Votel, Hamdullah Mohib,
Turkey, Syria, Manbij, Raqqa, Kurds, Russia, Iran

josa0512
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Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:56 pm

Re: 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Postby josa0512 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:56 am

Dr. Xenakis,

You quoted Debka:

"Gen. Dunford notified his Russian and Turkish colleagues that the American army's first mission in Syria was to capture the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa, following which the troops would make for the Deir ez-Zour province and undertake the task of cleansing northern and eastern Syria of Islamist concentrations. ..."

When I read this, my heart sank a little. I think America's mission to capture Raqqa is an excellent idea. The mission is a simple objective which will hopefully be pursued with a coherent focus. And the conquest of Raqqa will have a recognizable start and an obvious black and white finish. However, once Raqqa has been liberated, if the American army then proceeds to attempt to cleanse ISIS from the Deir ez-Zor region, this will be a tragic mistake. I fear that the American military will be marched into a desert quagmire that will only result in deaths and political quandaries. I don't believe the Americans and Kurds (SDF) will ever be able to cleanse an area as vast and sympathetic to ISIS as the Deir ez-Zor province. Sure, the SDF can free the city of Deir ez-Zor but to attempt to drive ISIS out of that province and region? Unless President Trump is committed to sending in thousands of additional troops to stay for multiple years, it will be impossible. The people of that region will not welcome Kurdish interference. And the SAA, IRGC, and Hezbollah will not sit idly by while this happens either. I think we can work with Putin and the Russians and we can keep Erdogan and the Turks at bay...but if we get bogged down in Deir ez-Zor province, somewhere...somehow...some way, something will go wrong and the regional Middle East war you've been predicting, that just might be how and where it starts. And as you've addressed previously...once Raqqa is captured and ISIS is expelled, that will be the end of the mission but merely the beginning of the posturing, threats, intimidations, and behind the scenes horse trading for control of that provincial capital. There are just far too many patches of quicksand to believe that some group won't misstep. And it only takes one misstep to produce a spark that starts a raging fire in the desert. So my fervent hope is that we successfully lead the mission to liberate Raqqa, hand the city over to some other group and then get out while we still can. And a fire may be lit in Manbij or Raqqa before American troops ever reach Deir ez-Zor. Regardless of what happens, we should listen to Bette Davis and fasten our seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
(The actual quote is "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night" but seatbelts just make more sense.)

Guest13

Re: 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Postby Guest13 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:10 am

The "War on Terrorism" is an unwinable war just like the war on drugs or the war on poverty. It is a political term that means zilch. Win a battle one place, then more will pop up like cockroaches somewhere else. Build more aircraft carriers? China will destroy with a missle. Idiots.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Postby John » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:49 pm

josa0512 wrote:> You quoted Debka:

> "Gen. Dunford notified his Russian and Turkish colleagues that the
> American army's first mission in Syria was to capture the ISIS
> stronghold of Raqqa, following which the troops would make for the
> Deir ez-Zour province and undertake the task of cleansing northern
> and eastern Syria of Islamist concentrations. ..."

> When I read this, my heart sank a little. I think America's
> mission to capture Raqqa is an excellent idea. The mission is a
> simple objective which will hopefully be pursued with a coherent
> focus. And the conquest of Raqqa will have a recognizable start
> and an obvious black and white finish. However, once Raqqa has
> been liberated, if the American army then proceeds to attempt to
> cleanse ISIS from the Deir ez-Zor region, this will be a tragic
> mistake. I fear that the American military will be marched into a
> desert quagmire that will only result in deaths and political
> quandaries. I don't believe the Americans and Kurds (SDF) will
> ever be able to cleanse an area as vast and sympathetic to ISIS as
> the Deir ez-Zor province. Sure, the SDF can free the city of Deir
> ez-Zor but to attempt to drive ISIS out of that province and
> region? Unless President Trump is committed to sending in
> thousands of additional troops to stay for multiple years, it will
> be impossible. The people of that region will not welcome Kurdish
> interference. And the SAA, IRGC, and Hezbollah will not sit idly
> by while this happens either. I think we can work with Putin and
> the Russians and we can keep Erdogan and the Turks at bay...but if
> we get bogged down in Deir ez-Zor province,
> somewhere...somehow...some way, something will go wrong and the
> regional Middle East war you've been predicting, that just might
> be how and where it starts. And as you've addressed
> previously...once Raqqa is captured and ISIS is expelled, that
> will be the end of the mission but merely the beginning of the
> posturing, threats, intimidations, and behind the scenes horse
> trading for control of that provincial capital. There are just
> far too many patches of quicksand to believe that some group won't
> misstep. And it only takes one misstep to produce a spark that
> starts a raging fire in the desert. So my fervent hope is that we
> successfully lead the mission to liberate Raqqa, hand the city
> over to some other group and then get out while we still can. And
> a fire may be lit in Manbij or Raqqa before American troops ever
> reach Deir ez-Zor. Regardless of what happens, we should listen
> to Bette Davis and fasten our seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy
> ride. (The actual quote is "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to
> be a bumpy night" but seatbelts just make more sense.)


There's another angle to this as well. The Russians seem pleased with
this turn of events, as they well should be. They've been looking for
a way to get their military out of the Syria quagmire, and now they
can hand the quagmire off to America.

Guest

Re: 11-Mar-17 World View -- US military commitments grow in Afghanistan and Syria

Postby Guest » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:19 am

Invading Iraq was a titanic mistake. Going back in is beyond ridiculous. Just leave. Also: Abandon Israel.


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