4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of money

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of money

Postby John » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:01 pm

4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic


The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth

** 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170304.htm#e170304



Contents:
Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic
End of debt ceiling suspension on March 15 signals new Washington fiscal crisis
The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Trump rally, S&P 500 price/earnings ratio,
parabolic, David Stockman, Ronald Reagan, debt ceiling,
velocity of money, real estate bubble, financial crisis,
Janet Yellen

Gold bug

Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby Gold bug » Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:44 am

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (Mar 3) was at an astronomically high 24.90. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

A stock market panic and crash is coming with 100% certainty. To this day, we still don't know what triggered the stock market panic in October 1929, and why it happened at that time rather than a little earlier or later, so we don't know what will trigger the approaching stock market panic and crash, though we know with certainty that it's coming.


This means gold will skyrocket in value. Ten thousand dollars for an ounce gold is not unrealistic.

John
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Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby John » Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:55 am

> According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500
> Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning
> (Mar 3) was at an astronomically high 24.90. This is far above the
> historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market bubble
> is still growing, and could burst at any time. Generational
> Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or
> lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in
> a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.


> A stock market panic and crash is coming with 100% certainty. To
> this day, we still don't know what triggered the stock market
> panic in October 1929, and why it happened at that time rather
> than a little earlier or later, so we don't know what will trigger
> the approaching stock market panic and crash, though we know with
> certainty that it's coming.


Gold bug wrote:> This means gold will skyrocket in value. Ten thousand dollars for
> an ounce gold is not unrealistic.


Didn't you ask me this question a few months ago? As I wrote at the
time, gold is in a bubble, just like the stock market. The long-term
trend value of gold is around $500 per oz. When the bubble bursts,
the price will overshoot and fall to the $200-300 range, which is
where it was around 2000.

Here's an article I wrote in 2011:

** 28-Jul-11 News -- Washington follows Brussels in fraud and extortion
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e110728b.htm#e110728b


Image


Here's another graph that shows the historical price of gold
in 1998 dollars:

Image

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-price-gold-all-way-back-1265

The price of gold has never been above $2,400, and that was in 1492,
at the climax of Spain's Reconquest war, when Columbus was sent to
America to find more gold. Since then, the price of gold has always
been much lower. It would not be surprising to see the price of gold
fall to $300 an ounce, as it did in 2000.

If you really believe that the price of gold will go up to $10,000,
then you're crazy and you're going to lose all your money.

Gold bug

Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby Gold bug » Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:10 am

You have a good memory. I did ask this question a few months ago.

I have read your article, and why it makes some sense, I think you're missing a major factor: we are living in unprecedented times. The world is now globalized. Markets are interconnected, and civilization is endangered. Countries collapse. Empires collapse. But the global economy has never collapsed before.

Gold will be transferable. Gold is apolitical and can cross any border and be called money.

I don't think all governments will collapse (some will), but I think we are facing unprecedented economic shocks. Rome collapsed, but Byzantium did not. When Rome collapsed, China was thriving; so was Korea. But this time the global economy faces near total ruin.

Marc Faber has been talking about $10,000 and ounce gold for years, so have many other economists.

I'm not trying to argue for the sake of arguing, but I do believe you should factor some of this in. The value of gold will be higher because demand will outstrip supply.

John
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Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby John » Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:56 am

Gold bug wrote:> You have a good memory. I did ask this question a few months ago.

> I have read your article, and why it makes some sense, I think
> you're missing a major factor: we are living in unprecedented
> times. The world is now globalized. Markets are interconnected,
> and civilization is endangered. Countries collapse. Empires
> collapse. But the global economy has never collapsed before.

> Gold will be transferable. Gold is apolitical and can cross any
> border and be called money.

> I don't think all governments will collapse (some will), but I
> think we are facing unprecedented economic shocks. Rome collapsed,
> but Byzantium did not. When Rome collapsed, China was thriving; so
> was Korea. But this time the global economy faces near total ruin.

> Marc Faber has been talking about $10,000 and ounce gold for
> years, so have many other economists.

> I'm not trying to argue for the sake of arguing, but I do believe
> you should factor some of this in. The value of gold will be
> higher because demand will outstrip supply.




Your reasoning doesn't make sense. You say that the price of gold
will go up to $10,000 because "the global economy faces near total
ruin."

OK, so assume that the global economy has collapsed, and you're
sitting there in your kitchen with your stack of gold bars. What are
you going to do with them? You can't eat them. You can't wear them.
No one will buy them because the global economy will have collapsed
for everyone else as well. No one would pay you $10,000 an ounce for
your gold bars in a collapsed economy, because no one has any money,
and everyone who has gold is trying to sell out of desperation. You'd
be so desperate that you'd be glad to get $10 per ounce for them.
You'd probably end up using them as doorstops.

The price of gold can go up only in a well-functioning economy, when
everyone has money to spend, and gold salesmen are flourishing. In a
collapsed economy, the price of gold will also collapse, because
everyone with gold will be selling.

You're saying that the price of gold will go up to $10,000 because
"this time it's different," when in fact, this time it's not different
at all.

Gold bug

Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby Gold bug » Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:32 am

So when you say repeatedly that 'there is no solution', do you mean civilization will collapse and gold/money/currency will be worthless? Only food, medicine, and bullets will matter? A Dark Age? This is beyond what I have been planning for.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby John » Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:27 am

Gold bug wrote:> So when you say repeatedly that 'there is no solution', do you
> mean civilization will collapse and gold/money/currency will be
> worthless? Only food, medicine, and bullets will matter? A Dark
> Age? This is beyond what I have been planning for.


You're asking me how to survive a world war. In order to
answer your question, I googled the word "survivalist" and
found the following page that gives a list of survivalist web
sites. You can visit these sites at your leisure and get
all the information you want.


http://tipsforsurvivalists.com/top-20-websites-for-survivalists


Top 20 Websites for Survivalists
Taylor Knight 2 years ago 30 Comments


We decided it would be a great idea to put together a top 20 list of
the best websites for Survivalists. This is what we’ve come up with
from our research and we wanted to provide you with the best
information possible.

So here you are!



1. Graywolf Survival – http://graywolfsurvival.com/

– One of the most popular survivalist sites, Graywolfsurvival is
informative and easy to navigate.

2. American Preppers Network – http://americanpreppersnetwork.com

– This website caters to a wide range of preppers. From novices to
seasoned survivalists, this site contains information for everybody,
as well as a blog to help you pick up tips from other preppers.

3. The Prepper Journal – http://www.theprepperjournal.com/

– This site is very thorough and has a wealth of information,
particularly for those who don’t know where to begin. The attractive
layout is an added bonus.

4. Sovereign Survival – http://tipsforsurvivalists.com/

– This site is particularly helpful for preppers with families, and is
chock full of links to other resources across the web. Great for
people at any experience level, particularly those with small
children.

5. The Survival Mom – http://thesurvivalmom.com/

– While this site appears to cater to women, don’t let the name fool
you! This site is great for beginners of all genders who want tips
on organization, prepping food, and keeping your kids entertained in
the event of a crisis.

6. Doom and Bloom – http://www.doomandbloom.net/

– Doom and Bloom is both fun and informational –containing helpful
articles as well as a radio channel where you can tune in and get
helpful survivalist tips.

7. Off Grid Survival – http://offgridsurvival.com

– While this site is not super heavy on tips for beginners, it is a
wealth of knowledge in terms of related news stories and information
on practical gear.

8. Survival Spot – http://www.survival-spot.com

– This site is attractive and well laid out, but is recommended for
those who already have base-level knowledge; otherwise the high-tech
advice could bury a beginner.

9. Prepping To Survive – http://preppingtosurvive.com/

– Where most prepping websites focus on disaster related preparedness,
this one targets wilderness survival in general, and is great for
the adventurer who wants to be ready in case of emergency.

10. Prepper Resources – http://www.prepper-resources.com/

– This resource is not only provides information on prepping basics
and gun safety, it will also link you to other sites on the web that
can expand your knowledge.

11. Survival Cache – http://survivalcache.com/

– While it does contains articles on storing food and water, this
site’s main focus is weaponry. While it may seem extreme to some, it
is an often overlooked aspect of being prepared.

12. SGT Report – http://sgtreport.com/

– This website is less about active survival tips and more about the
danger we are facing on a daily basis – however, it can be helpful
to train yourself to know the warning signs of crisis.

13. The Prepared Ninja – http://www.thepreparedninja.com/

– A short, simple, and well-organized blog for those who understand
the fundamentals, but need help with practical execution.

14. Authorized Boots – http://authorizedboots.com/

– Authorized Boots is for all things related to Army boots and
tactical gear. They provide their expertise as well as team’s
insights to provide high quality reviews of your favorite army boots
based on their experience, opinions, and relentless research to be a
trusted source in your purchase journey.

15. The Organic Prepper – http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/

– This website is very beginner friendly, but also focuses more on an
eco-friendly approach to survivalism. The blogger has several other
sites that are related to prepping.

16. Backdoor Survival – http://www.backdoorsurvival.com

– While this site is slightly more difficult to navigate, it has a
wealth of in-depth preparation tips, particularly for those with
large families and those who want tips on training their mind as
well as their bug-out bags.

17. Survival Blog – http://survivalblog.com/

– Where some sites are a little skimpy, this site has almost an
overload of information; however, it is very organized, and has
information that appeals to all level of prepper.

18. Survival MD – http://survivalmd.org

– This website has the only complete medical field survival guide for
the laymen…showing you how to treat yourself and loved ones in an
emergency when doctors, pharmacies and hospitals are shut down.

19. Suburban Prepper – http://www.suburbanprepper.com/blog/

– Suburban prepper has a few tips for those who are a little more
outdoors-y.

20. Blackout USA – http://blackoutusa.org

– This site is all about educating you about a threat so powerful it
will wipe out 281 million Americans in the first year. And while
NASA, the CIA and the Pentagon are warning us like crazy…no
mainstream T.V. or radio outlet is talking about it.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:12 am

When the velocity of money goes to zero, the velocity of air, water and food goes to near infinity.

Does NO ONE watch The Walking Dead!?

..now, burying gold bullion and keeping and passing the "secret location" on through your "family" for some FOUR to SIXTEEN generations might help your "progeny" quite nicely! :) (You MUST leave it for at least four generations, and it's best if it's left for some multiple of four generations [assuming you "start" in a pre-crisis period].)

But, as long as anxiety is based on "bank accounts losing value" buy gold and at the same time figure out what to buy WITH that gold when the center of anxiety shifts to "gasping, dehydrating and starving".

..start selling BEFORE the shift reaches "half steam speed". Monitor the price of guns, as "shift speed" is directly related to it.

When the "velocity of guns' price" goes steep parabolic, get set,.. and when it goes hyperbolic you've missed the boat.

Hey John,.. perhaps you should create a "Gun Price Velocity (PV)" metric, to be "linked" to a "Gold PV" metric and a "Cow-based Food PV" metric to monitor the approaching Zombie Apocalypse?

Badness = (Gun*Cow)/Gold

? :)

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby John » Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:41 am

Don't forget that you can make your own guns with a 3D printer, but
you can't make your own gold unless you're an alchemist.

FishbellykanakaDude

Re: 4-Mar-17 World View -- Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic / Velocity of mone

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:46 pm

John wrote:Don't forget that you can make your own guns with a 3D printer, but
you can't make your own gold unless you're an alchemist.


Oh,.. I had not thought of that! :)

..so the goal would be to create a "system/factory" to create printable guns, and make ammo, that is as low-tech as possible and uses easily acquired resource materials ("gunk") that can be sourced sustainably in a low tech environment!

We may have found the "philosopher's stone" to convert "gunk" into gold during the low "(gun*cow)/gold" times, and convert "gunk" into food/water/continued-breathing during high "(gun*cow)/gold" times.

...excellent...!! <-- voice of Mr. Burns.


Gold is only useful to buy "source materials" while gold has high-ish value, and as a gift to your far future progeny otherwise.

Only buy guns/ammo, a gun "factory", and food (aka farming supplies) with gold. Selling gold for dollars is a sure sign you're doing it wrong. :)


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