10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp

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John
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10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp

Postby John » Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:02 pm

10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp


Closure of Dadaab demanded after 2015 Garissa University attack in Kenya

** 10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170210.htm#e170210



Contents:
Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp
Closure of Dadaab demanded after 2015 Garissa University attack in Kenya


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Dadaab refugee camp, Somalia,
John Mativo, UNHCR, Garissa University College

jmm1184
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Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Re: 10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp

Postby jmm1184 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:27 am

10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp


John, have you deduced what generational era Somalia is at this time? I can't seem to make heads or tails of it. A Crisis War appears to have started in 1991 with the outbreak of the Somali Civil War and the collapse of central government, but there doesn't appear to be an obvious crisis war climax since then, though the country has been slowly making progress in stabilizing itself, perhaps a sign of being in a recovery?

But then where does Al-Shabaab fit in? It seems to me that a country who is in a recovery era would be the least likely to produce jihadist/terrorist organizations, but perhaps its a sign of an awakening emerging? Still even that is not satisfactory as there conflict seems more religious, ethnic, and geographical than political/generational.

I will say that I think I have a summary of Somali's generational history before 1991...

1897-1920: Dervish Rebellion (Crisis War)
1920-1935: Recovery
1935-1960: Movement for Independence
1960-1978: Unraveling, establishment of revolutionary government in 1969
1978-1991: Crisis Era, war with Ethiopia and resistance to revolutionary government

1991-present?: Somali Civil War, crisis war?

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: 10-Feb-17 World View -- Kenya's High Court blocks attempt to close Dadaab refugee camp

Postby John » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:07 pm

jmm1184 wrote:> John, have you deduced what generational era Somalia is at this
> time? I can't seem to make heads or tails of it. A Crisis War
> appears to have started in 1991 with the outbreak of the Somali
> Civil War and the collapse of central government, but there
> doesn't appear to be an obvious crisis war climax since then,
> though the country has been slowly making progress in stabilizing
> itself, perhaps a sign of being in a recovery?

> But then where does Al-Shabaab fit in? It seems to me that a
> country who is in a recovery era would be the least likely to
> produce jihadist/terrorist organizations, but perhaps its a sign
> of an awakening emerging? Still even that is not satisfactory as
> there conflict seems more religious, ethnic, and geographical than
> political/generational.

> I will say that I think I have a summary of Somali's generational
> history before 1991...

> 1897-1920: Dervish Rebellion (Crisis War)
> 1920-1935: Recovery
> 1935-1960: Movement for Independence
> 1960-1978: Unraveling, establishment of revolutionary government in 1969
> 1978-1991: Crisis Era, war with Ethiopia and resistance to revolutionary government

> 1991-present?: Somali Civil War, crisis war?


I vaguely recall trying to figure out Somalia some years ago, without
much success. I seem to vaguely recall deciding that Somaliland and
Puntland are on different timelines than the rest of Somalia, but now
I'm not sure.

Matt Ignal said that Somalia's last crisis war was a Civil War --
1974-1994. He was pretty reliable, so that's worth checking out. The
same war is in Nathan G's list of crisis wars, but he may have copied
it from Matt's list.

That's not much, but it's all I have.


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