30-Dec-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria / Damascus Syria is without water

[John]

30-Dec-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria


Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned

** 30-Dec-16 World View -- Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161230


Contents:
Russia and Turkey announce a new ceasefire in Syria
Damascus Syria is without water after reservoirs were poisoned


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Alawite-istan, Rojava, Kazakhstan, Damascus

[Waterman121]

Hi John,

Great work as always. I'm reading a book about the Occupy movement from 2011, and I decided to dig through the archives from that time to see how it was covered. In my search, I came across a startling statement from October 11th 2011 regarding the unfolding violence in Syria:

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ?f=4&t=982

The days of Syrian regime forces massacring peaceful, unarmed protesters appear to be over in Homs, the third largest city in Syria. Armed civilians, along with military defectors, are now battling Bashar al-Assad's regime security forces in formerly peaceful neighborhoods. Perhaps the most dramatic facet of the struggle is a series of assassinations this past week that have left nearly a dozen professors, doctors and informers dead in a paroxysm of violence. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria is in a generation Awakening era, and so a crisis civil war is impossible. If a civil war begins, it will fizzle quickly.

Do you still stand by this statement? I can see how Syrians undergoing a Generational Awakening would be disinclined to engage in a crisis-level civil war, but one must admit the conflict has been extreme and widespread.

How does Generational Dynamics account for this? Is foreign meddling primarily responsible for the intensifying of the war?

This brings up a larger question. In a proxy war, which timeline is more important: the country where the conflict occurs or the countries that sponsor the combatants?

Thanks,

Waterman121

[Waterman121]

Fixed archive link:

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 111011.htm

Waterman121

[John]

I've written about this many times. In 2011, I expected Syria's civil
war to fizzle, because the population would still be traumatized from
the last crisis civil war, and wouldn't want another one. What I
overlooked was how much one person -- Bashar al-Assad -- could keep
the war going on for years through single-minded psychopathic
genocide, with the help of outsiders -- Russia, Iran, Hezbollah.

In recent years I've developed a great deal of additional theoretical
insight into crisis civil wars between two ethnic groups, and the
possibility of war in the subsequent Awakening era. I last wrote
about this six days ago in the following article:

** 24-Dec-16 World View -- South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161224

[jimw4881]

John, you attempted to reconcile and/or explain a unrealized outcome thus ..

“What I overlooked was how much one person (…….) could keep the war going on for years through single-minded psychopathic genocide, with the help of outsiders (…….).”

Well then, are not all of Generational Dynamics “predictions” at least unreliable? The fudge used to be “time”, how fast or slow would the GD predictions come to pass which allowed for unlimited "wait and see" statements that were made on the assumption that they will prove to be true. While your posts will remain entertaining they are now officially uninformative and, according to you, unreliable in any predictive analytics sense with this admission.

[John]

> John, you attempted to reconcile and/or explain a unrealized
> outcome thus ..

> “What I overlooked was how much one person (…….) could keep the
> war going on for years through single-minded psychopathic
> genocide, with the help of outsiders (…….).”

> Well then, are not all of Generational Dynamics “predictions” at
> least unreliable? The fudge used to be “time”, how fast or slow
> would the GD predictions come to pass which allowed for unlimited
> "wait and see" statements that were made on the assumption that
> they will prove to be true. While your posts will remain
> entertaining they are now officially uninformative and, according
> to you, unreliable in any predictive analytics sense with this
> admission.

Yeah, you're right. The actions of a psychopathic genocidal leader,
who has access to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of heavy
weapons that he can use to attack schools, hospitals and civilian
neighborhoods, killing women and children of Sunni or any ethnic group
he likes, and can keep massacring women and children and keep blood
running through the streets for years, cannot be predicted in advance.
The only thing that can be predicted is the attitudes and behaviors of
entire populations and entire generations. Everyone has free will, so
the actions of one particular individual can never be predicted. Glad
you find it so entertaining.

[Jack Edwards]

jimw4881 said:

Well then, are not all of Generational Dynamics “predictions” at least unreliable? The fudge used to be “time”, how fast or slow would the GD predictions come to pass which allowed for unlimited "wait and see" statements that were made on the assumption that they will prove to be true. While your posts will remain entertaining they are now officially uninformative and, according to you, unreliable in any predictive analytics sense with this admission.

George E. P. Box (a statistician) said: "Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful."

As part of my profession - I build statistical models. They often end up being incorrect and I adjust my model.

I find John's model of Generational Dynamics extremely useful - so much so that I read it daily and have for years. It helps me make sense of the world. If his model is off - it's not by much. It's a really good model. Him noting that he adjusts his model is a good example of how a scientist should be. It's more accurate than any model I've made and FAR more complex.

I don't understand why people that don't agree with John bother to post stuff like what you just did. It happens all too frequently. If you think it's a waste of time don't you have other things you'd rather be doing?

Jack

[Guest]

How do you explain WW 2? The WW 1 generation was running the show. Why didn't the WW 1 generation stop it? I'm not attacking you, John, but I'm curious.

[jimw4881]

John ... you could have stopped with "Yeah, you're right" ....

[Jack Edwards]

How do you explain WW 2? The WW 1 generation was running the show. Why didn't the WW 1 generation stop it? I'm not attacking you, John, but I'm curious.

http://generationaldynamics.com/dl/Gene ... estiny.pdf

page 44

The entire book is worth a read.

Jack