3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby John » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:12 pm

3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China


Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea

** 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e161103.htm#e161103




Contents:
Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Legislative Council of Hong Kong, LegCo,
Yau Wai-ching, Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang,
National People’s Congress Standing Committee, NPCSC,
Umbrella Revolution, Taiwan, Sunflower Movement, Tibet, Xinjiang,
North Korea, Sudan, Ibrahim Ghandour, Uganda, Namibia, South Korea,
Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea

Guest

Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby Guest » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:50 am

John, could North Korea simply be a pawn of the Chinese? Could Kim Jung un just be a puppet of the Chinese? You seem to think, if I follow you, that he is really in charge. I find it difficult to believe North Korea could survive without Chinese support.

Do you see any time line forming on the war in Asia yet? How long could this situation drag out? It seems to me that Korea will be in a war in a matter of months. Could the next war in Korea be contained to just the Korean peninsula, like the first Korean war?

I worry about the future. I hope I pass away in my sleep before a nuclear war. I used to think nuclear was unthinkable, but after reading the articles on your site, I realize it's more than possible, it's inevitable. How awful.

I'm exhausted. But thank you so much for this website. It's better to know. I 'm grateful to you. Sorry, it's difficult for me to express myself sometimes. I just wish I had found this site 10 years ago. I would have lived my life differently.

John
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Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby John » Thu Nov 03, 2016 6:54 pm

Nobody knows what's going on in North Korea. The article I wrote a
couple of days ago is a good example. Kim's wife hasn't been seen in
public since March. You'd think someone would at least know whether
she's dead or not, but the analysts in the Chinese, South Korean
and Japanese media have no idea.

** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161102

Probably the best answer was given by someone else in this
forum a while ago:

thomasglee wrote:> You are correct and that is still the case, but, we all know that
> north Korea cannot (could not) survive if China would cut them
> off. So some think that China is publicly lamenting about Kim
> while simultaneously buttressing his regime. It allows them to
> maintain an arms length distance and, at a certain level,
> plausible deniability.

> China is more worried about a unified Korea than a collapsed north
> Korea at this point. As you know, if north Korea was to collapse,
> more than likely, the Chinese would move in before the south or
> the USA could (the Chinese already have a good presence in the
> north). However, a unified south Korea, unified under south
> (western) influence, would be disaster for China.


viewtopic.php?f=9&t=3794&p=32153#p32154

Guest wrote:> Do you see any time line forming on the war in Asia yet? How long
> could this situation drag out? It seems to me that Korea will be
> in a war in a matter of months. Could the next war in Korea be
> contained to just the Korean peninsula, like the first Korean
> war?


You're right that the Korean peninsula is headed for war, but it's
impossible to predict what event will trigger it, or when that will
happen. The analogy is to the "straw that breaks the camel's back":
You know that if you keep piling straw on the camel's back, then it
will break, but you can't predict which straw will do it.

However, when war does hit, it certainly won't be confined to just the
Korean peninsula. The 1950s Korean War was fought during a
generational Recovery era (First Turning). Today we're in a
generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning), so there's no comparison.

thomasglee
Posts: 365
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby thomasglee » Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:44 am

John wrote:Nobody knows what's going on in North Korea. The article I wrote a
couple of days ago is a good example. Kim's wife hasn't been seen in
public since March. You'd think someone would at least know whether
she's dead or not, but the analysts in the Chinese, South Korean
and Japanese media have no idea.

** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161102

Probably the best answer was given by someone else in this
forum a while ago:

thomasglee wrote:> You are correct and that is still the case, but, we all know that
> north Korea cannot (could not) survive if China would cut them
> off. So some think that China is publicly lamenting about Kim
> while simultaneously buttressing his regime. It allows them to
> maintain an arms length distance and, at a certain level,
> plausible deniability.

> China is more worried about a unified Korea than a collapsed north
> Korea at this point. As you know, if north Korea was to collapse,
> more than likely, the Chinese would move in before the south or
> the USA could (the Chinese already have a good presence in the
> north). However, a unified south Korea, unified under south
> (western) influence, would be disaster for China.


viewtopic.php?f=9&t=3794&p=32153#p32154

Guest wrote:> Do you see any time line forming on the war in Asia yet? How long
> could this situation drag out? It seems to me that Korea will be
> in a war in a matter of months. Could the next war in Korea be
> contained to just the Korean peninsula, like the first Korean
> war?


You're right that the Korean peninsula is headed for war, but it's
impossible to predict what event will trigger it, or when that will
happen. The analogy is to the "straw that breaks the camel's back":
You know that if you keep piling straw on the camel's back, then it
will break, but you can't predict which straw will do it.

However, when war does hit, it certainly won't be confined to just the
Korean peninsula. The 1950s Korean War was fought during a
generational Recovery era (First Turning). Today we're in a
generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning), so there's no comparison.


Not sure how much you've been following the goings on in Korea; especially in relation to Ms. Park, their president, but things are deteriorating domestically. I like Ms. Park, but realize she's done some stupid things (however, Korea is as corrupt as they come, so her opponents do NOT have clean hands either). Although I do like some of her policies, I do worry that based on her history (she lost both of her parents to assassination), I do worry she might overreact to some event conducted by the north (as proxies of China), which would lead to a greater conflict - specifically if/when she finds herself needing to detract attention from domestic issues (fomented by leftists funded by north Korea and China).
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

John
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Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby John » Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:53 pm

thomasglee wrote:> Not sure how much you've been following the goings on in Korea;
> especially in relation to Ms. Park, their president, but things
> are deteriorating domestically. I like Ms. Park, but realize
> she's done some stupid things (however, Korea is as corrupt as
> they come, so her opponents do NOT have clean hands either).
> Although I do like some of her policies, I do worry that based on
> her history (she lost both of her parents to assassination), I do
> worry she might overreact to some event conducted by the north (as
> proxies of China), which would lead to a greater conflict -
> specifically if/when she finds herself needing to detract
> attention from domestic issues (fomented by leftists funded by
> north Korea and China).


I've been following this political scandal off and on for months, but
I can't discern what the geopolitical significance is, if any.

Here's an interesting article that just came out today:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... andal.html

Guest

Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby Guest » Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:23 pm

When do you see Hong Kong protests being crushed by the PLA? Will young Hong Kong Chinese continue to protest even if it means being killed by Chinese soldiers? Didn't the Hong Kong Chinese learn that the Red Chinese mean business from the bloody crackdown of 1989?

How many more years will peaceful protests in Hong Kong drag on? This has been going on for almost three years.

Is an independent Hong Kong a realistic scenario?

I'm not impatient, but it seems like the Chinese could wait another 100 years before they finally rise up.

John
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Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby John » Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:02 pm

100 years is forever.

Guest

Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby Guest » Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:35 am

John wrote:100 years is forever.


Has the election of Trump changed your timeline, John? Could world war be averted if Trump takes America isolationist?

The Russians were talking about "taking advantage of " a geopolitical window of opportunity". That sounds bad for Europe.

In WW2 we sold out Eastern Europe to defeat Nazi Germany. Could America sell out all of Europe in order to defeat China and the Sunni Muslims? Donald Trump is aware of every slight directed at him. He knows the Europeans have been slagging him off. I doubt he would lose sleep over Europe.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby John » Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:23 am

Guest wrote:> Has the election of Trump changed your timeline, John?


No

Guest

Re: 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

Postby Guest » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:10 am

John wrote:
Guest wrote:> Has the election of Trump changed your timeline, John?


No


Perhaps Trump won't alter the timeline for Asia, but Europe seems to be heading for war, without America!


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