2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby John » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:42 pm

2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements

** 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e161002.htm#e161002



Contents:
Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Russia,
John Kerry, Ash Carter, Maria Zakharova, Alawite-istan

Visitor 11

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby Visitor 11 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:28 am

How does an Awakening Era war end? I hope this isn't a dumb question. Thanks very much.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby John » Sun Oct 02, 2016 1:41 pm

Visitor 11 wrote:> How does an Awakening Era war end? I hope this isn't a dumb
> question. Thanks very much.



An Awakening era occurs when the first generation growing up after a
generational crisis war comes of age, usually starting around 15 years
after the genocidal climax of the preceding crisis war. The
traumatized generations that survived the war have put into place
regulations and institutions designed to prevent any such war from
ever occurring again -- even if those regulations and institutions
promote racism, sexism, discrimination, etc. For the survivors, the
social issues are not anywhere as important as simply preventing new
atrocities and genocides.

The younger generation has no personal memory of the atrocities and
genocides. All they know are the resulting social issues,
particularly discrimination of once class by another. This leads to
riots, demonstrations, peace marches, and so forth, referred to as a
"generation gap," where the war survivors want the restrictions and
institutions to stay in place in order to prevent new atrocities, and
the younger generations want to resolve the social issues, and
consider the suggestion of any return to the atrocities of the war to
be ideological nonsense.

The riots and demonstrations often morph into inter-generational
violence, such as property destruction, gunfire, bombings, and other
terrorist acts. Sometimes the "horizontal" generational split between
generations of the same society morphs further into a "vertical" split
between two ethnic or religious groups within the society, and this
begins to turn into an ethnic war during the decades to come.

At some point, there's an "Awakening era climax," which signals a
victory of either the older generation or the younger generation. If
there's no "vertical" split, then the Awakening era climax turns into
a victory for the younger generation, and the riots and protests
generally end.

If, however, there's a "vertical" split between to ethnic groups, then
the older generation usually uses extreme force to crush the
demonstrations, in the name of preventing a new civil war like the
previous crisis war. In this case, it's usually the older generation
that wins the Awakening era climax.

In the case of an ethnic war, it usually fizzles quickly during the
Awakening era, and often there's a period of peace after the Awakening
era climax. But since the ethnic differences are unresolved, violence
flares up again in the form of low-level warfare. In the ensuing
decades, there are periods of low-level warfare alternating with
periods of temporary peace. Around 60-70-80 years after the end of
the previous crisis war climax, a new generational crisis war breaks
out, and the cycle repeats.

America's Awakening era occurred in the 1960s-70s, and the climax was
the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974, which mostly ended the riots
and demonstrations, as the younger generation had won.

Syria is currently in the late stages of an Awakening early or the
early stages of an Unraveling era. The Awakening era climax has not
yet occurred, but al-Assad is following the pattern of trying to crush
the opposition, in the historic Alawite-Sunni ethnic split going back
centuries. This war would have fizzled long ago, if it hadn't turned
into a proxy war between the Alawites+Shias+Russians versus the
Sunnis. I personally don't believe that the war will be settled in
any way until al-Assad is eliminated. But even so, there will
continue to be sporadic violence between Alawites+Shias vs Sunnis,
until enough time has passed for a new full-scale generational crisis
war. However, that may not be too far off, because most of the
Mideast is already in a generational Crisis era, headed for a massive
regional war between Jews and Arabs, between ethnic groups, and
between Sunnis and Shias, and whatever happens in Syria will be
subsumed into the larger regional struggle.

visitor 11

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby visitor 11 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:52 pm

Thank you very much for this explanation.

guest

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby guest » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:33 am

I keep reading about economic collapse being around the corner, but it hasn't happened. I see people on TV building secret bunkers and preparing for the collapse of society, etc. I don't know what to believe.

1) John, do you think America's economy will collapse soon? I mean before the election, so that the elections will be cancelled and Trump kept out of the White House?

2) And here is the big question: Do you think the leaders of Western countries are so evil that they would start a nuclear war to hide an economic collapse? That seem way out of proportion to the problem. Why end the world? Why not just let things collapse? Should people be 'prepping'?

I need to stay off of YouTube for a while... :shock:

John
Posts: 8430
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby John » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:52 pm

It's impossible to predict what event will trigger the panic that will
lead to a stock market crash.

No, I don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to hide an economic
collapse. That's not how it would work. A country like China would
stoke nationalism and begin border clashes that could lead to
full-scale war.

mww

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby mww » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:22 pm

This war would have fizzled long ago, if it hadn't turned
into a proxy war between the Alawites+Shias+Russians versus the
Sunnis.


John - which side is the U.S. on in this proxy war or is our involvement insignificant?
Thanks

John
Posts: 8430
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby John » Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:29 pm


> This war would have fizzled long ago, if it hadn't turned into a
> proxy war between the Alawites+Shias+Russians versus the
> Sunnis.


mww wrote:> John - which side is the U.S. on in this proxy war or is our
> involvement insignificant? Thanks



In the short run, U.S. policy is totally confused. In the long run,
during the Clash of Civilizations War, the US will be aligned with
Russia.

** 27-Sep-16 World View -- US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e160927.htm#e160927


** 8-Oct-16 World View -- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e161008.htm#e161008

mww

Re: 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

Postby mww » Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:10 pm

In the short run, U.S. policy is totally confused. In the long run,
during the Clash of Civilizations War, the US will be aligned with
Russia.


I don't doubt this, just wondering how it will all play out since things seem to be tense and escalating between the US and Russia/Iran. Curious if there could be a conflict before eventual alignment. Also, wondering how things would play out depending on who ends up president. Should all be pretty interesting.


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