4-Sep-16 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse / Turkey sends more tanks into Syria

[John]

4-Sep-16 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse


Turkey sends more tanks into Syria in 'New Phase' of military action

** 4-Sep-16 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160904



Contents:
Turkey sends more tanks into Syria in 'New Phase' of military action
Syrian rebels capture 14 villages near Hama in four days
Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish People’s Protection Units, YPG, Rojava,
Hama, Aleppo, Arab Spring, Hafez al-Assad, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah,
Scott Lucas

[John]

An acolyte of Bashar al-Assad has been posting comments in Breitbart
that al-Assad is a wonderful guy and criticizing me for criticizing
him. One of the issues is that al-Assad created ISIS.

In order to have something useful come of this moronic discussion, I
went back in time to my see what I wrote about how al-Assad created
ISIS. This is a useful exercise since this question about who created
ISIS comes up often.

Starting around April 2013, there were reports of jihadists from other
parts of the world coming to Syria to fight al-Assad. What was
remarkable is that I was the only person I knew of who was describing
the dangerous consequences of this. Of course I couldn't predict the
formation of ISIS at that time, though I did start to mention ISIS in
October of that year. And I repeatedly predicted that these jihadists
would develop terrorist skills in Syria and bring them back to other
countries to conduct terrorist attacks.

I was particularly contemptuous of the three leaders responsible for
this impending disaster -- al-Assad, Putin, Khamenei. Even then it
was clear to me that this these three idiots were going to cause a
huge disaster and Mideast and beyond. And as I said, no one else was
writing about this.

I was also contemptuous of president Obama's flip-flop on the Sarin
gas red line. That's the reason that no one else was writing about
this -- because it gave the lie to Obama's claim that things were
under control in the Mideast.

With tens of thousands of jihadists flooding into Syria to fight
al-Assad, it was only a matter of time when there would be total
disaster, and that's what's happened. These thousands of jihadists
joined together to form ISIS, and I blame it entirely on the
unbelievably stupid actions of al-Assad, Putin, and Khamenei.


The following are excerpts of some of things that I wrote about
in 2013:


** 2-Mar-13 World View -- Syria conflict turning into a proxy war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130302



On Friday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu claimed that the
U.S. and Turkey have exactly the same objectives for Syria. However,
evidence is growing that American and Turkish objectives are
diverging. In particular, Turkey is providing support to Islamists
and even jihadists in Turkey, and would like to see a Sunni Islamist
government replace the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
He is showing no sympathy at all for the Alawite, Christian and
Kurdish communities. Turkey is thus aligned with Saudi Arabia and
Qatar, who are reportedly supplying weapons to opposition fighters.
America and the West, however, want to support only non-Islamist
opposition fighters, and fears that any support given to jihadists
will eventually be used against the West. Tensions are building
throughout the Mideast over the situation in Syria, which is
increasingly appearing to be a proxy war involving the West versus
Turkey + Saudi Arabia + Qatar versus Russia + Iran + Iraq + Hezbollah
+ the al-Assad regime. <#stdurl


** 11-Apr-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130411


A new development has confirmed that Islamists jihadists are
infiltrating the opposition in Syria to the Bashar al-Assad regime.
The leaders of Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) in Syria have openly
announced their allegiance to al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Al-Qaeda links have been denied in the past, so this counts as a major
admission, confirming accusations by the U.S. and others. However,
the al-Nusra leaders were apparently forced into this admission
because of a tactical error by the leaders of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who
claimed that al-Nusra was part of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and that the two
organizations were going to merge. The al-Nusra leaders say that they
were caught by surprise by this announcement, and that they had no
intention of merging with al-Qaeda in Iraq, but then felt it necessary
to pledge allegiance to al-Zawahiri.

The pledge is thought to be a tactical blunder, because it will reduce
support for al-Nusra among Syrians. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is unpopular in
Syria because of its targeting of innocent civilians during the Iraq
war. Al-Nusra has been fairly popular with opposition Syrians, but
the admitted association with al-Qaeda will lead Syrians to fear that
al-Nusra will target civilians as well. <#stdurl

** 27-Apr-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130427


Sunni Jihadists pour into Syria

With thousands of fighters from Iran-backed Shia militias arriving in
Syria to support al-Assad's regime, it's not surprising that thousands
of Sunni jihadists are also arriving in Syria to fight the Shia
militias. In particular, disaffected Muslims from Germany and
elsewhere in Europe have been heading for Syria to receive training in
weapons and terrorist techniques. German analysts are concerned that
these fighters are gaining experience in Syria, and making contacts,
and will return to Germany and conduct terrorist attacks there.

** 29-Jun-13 World View -- Jihadists from Russia join opposition fighters in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130629


Jihadists from Russia's North Caucasus provinces, particularly
Chechnya, are achieving growing prominence in Syria's civil war, much
to the distress of the Russians, who fear that they'll get training
and develop terrorist skills in Syria, and then come back and use
those skills in Russia. Furthermore, the active participation of
North Caucasians in the Syria jihad has brought greater world
recognition and appreciation among jihadists for the North Caucasus
jihad movement, which had formerly been fairly isolated. Doku Umarov,
leader of the Caucasus Emirate and the North Caucasus jihadist
movement, experienced a sharp flip-flop in policy about the Syria war.
A year ago, he was condemning any North Caucasians who went to fight
in Syria, saying that the jihad in the Caucasus was more important.
But the Syria war has been so popular with North Caucasus jihadists
that recently Umarov proudly bragged about the fine work that his
fighters were doing in Syria.

** 15-Jul-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130715


Thanks to the stupid policies of Russia's president Vladimir Putin in
prolonging the Syria war by providing an unlimited supply of heavy
weapons to the regime of the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad,
Syria has become a magnet for radical Sunni jihadists, anxious to
fight against al-Assad and his supply of Russian weapons. We've
reported how jihadists from Russia's southern (North Caucasus)
provinces have been going to Syria to get training and experience that
they can take back to Russia and use to attack Putin's government.
Now, new reports indicate that Pakistan's Taliban are doing the same
thing. They've set up training camps and sent hundreds of men to
Syria to join the Islamist rebels fighting against al-Assad, in a
strategy aimed at cementing ties with al-Qaeda's central leadership.
A Taliban commander says that they'll soon issue videos to describe
their victories in Syria.

** 24-Aug-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130824


At the same time, al-Qaeda is strengthening and growing. Russia's
military intervention in Syria has resulted in ruthless attacks on
Sunni Muslim families by the Shia/Alawite regime. So of course this
is going to tremendously inflame al-Qaeda linked groups. Jihadists
from throughout that part of the world, from Pakistan and Uzbekistan
to Libya and Nigeria to Dagestan and Chechnya are getting training so
that they can fight in Syria to defeat the Shia/Alawite regime, and
then the go to Syria and get further training that they can take back
home for more terrorist attacks.

** 30-Aug-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130830


In the current situation, Western weakness, combined with al-Assad's
and Putin's aggressive Sunni extermination plans, have already
tremendously inflamed the entire Mideast, as al-Qaeda linked jihadists
from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan have been traveling to Syria to
fight al-Assad's Shia/Alawite forces, and also to Iraq, where the
number of deaths from terrorist acts targeting Shias has been
skyrocketing. The actions of these two psychopaths have caused the
deaths of 100,000 Syrians, almost all civilians, as well as millions
of refugees, over a million of which have flooded into neighboring
countries. The vote in Britain can only make that situation worse.

** 1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130901


With regard to Syria, thanks to 2 1/2 years of weakness on the part of
the Policeman of the World, we already see a gathering of powerful
forces in the region. On the one side, we see Russia supplying
powerful weapons to Syria, with thousands of soldiers being supplied
by Iran and Hezbollah. On the other we see Saudi Arabia and other
Arab states becoming increasingly concerned about the slaughter of
Sunni Muslims by Syria, Russia and Iran. We also see Sunni jihadists
from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan being trained for combat in
Syria.

** 8-Sep-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130908


Forces gathering momentum in the Mideast

There are powerful forces gathering momentum across the world,
converging on Syria -- Sunni jihadists from Pakistan to Nigeria to
Dagestan are going to fight in Syria. Shia jihadists from Iran and
Hezbollah are going to fight in Syria. Russia is pouring advanced
weapons into Syria. Millions of refugees are pouring out of Syria
into neighboring countries. The entire Sunni/Shia and Arab/Jew fault
lines are inflamed throughout the Mideast.




** 18-Sep-13 World View -- Russia and Vladimir Putin pursue a disastrous Syria policy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130918


Syria is providing a training ground for Sunni jihadists from Russia's
Caucasus and other countries to learn how to defeat Russian weapons
and Russian tactics, and they'll be returning to Russia to use those
new skills against Russians.

** 26-Sep-13 World View
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130926


Russia's policy of providing support for and supplying weapons to
Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad has spawned a major new
al-Qaeda linked jihadist group, Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar (the Army
of the Immigrants) in Russia's own North Caucasus provinces that is
fighting against al-Assad in Syria. The group reportedly has over
1,400 Russian members, most of them with past military experience in
the North Caucasus, and is headed by a commander from Chechnya, Abu
Abdurakhman. According to one Russian official, young people from
Chechnya first travel to Azerbaijan, from where they travel to Turkey
and then on to Syria. ...

Chechen jihadists in particular are attracted to the fight in Syria,
according to another official, because of the two wars between Russia
and Chechnya in the 1990s. ...


But jihadists outside Russia are joining al-Muhajireen as well.
Citizens of Tunisia, Libya, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
and Uzbekistan have also gone off to Syria to join their Russian
brethren's fight against al-Assad's regime.

Another reason for jihadist interest in Syria is because of the
connection to the jihad against Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

These jihadists are getting training and developing skills in in
fighting Russian weapons and Russian tactics in Syria. When the war
ends, they'll have to go somewhere to use all those new skills, and
that might be any country.


** 27-Sep-13 World View -- How Hezbollah's reluctant foray into Syria changed the Mideast
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130927

The Mideast changed dramatically on April 30 of this year, when Sayyed
Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanon-based Shia terror group
Hezbollah, gave a televised saying that Hezbollah would militarily
enter the fight in Syria on the side of the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, and then followed up by winning an
overwhelming victory against Syria's opposition in Qusair.

That was the point in time when Syria's civil war turned into a war
between Sunnis and Shias in the Mideast. That was the time when the
Sunni terror group Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar (the Army of the
Immigrants) was formed in Russia's Chechnya province for the purpose
of fighting against the Alawite/Shia forces of al-Assad. That was the
time when the trickle of Sunni jihadists coming to Syria to fight
began to turn into a flood, arriving from central Asia, northern
Africa, and Russia's southern Caucasus provinces.

** 30-Sep-13 World View -- Algeria cracks down on jihadists headed for Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130930


As I've written many times, the civil war in Syria, in which
Shia/Alewite Bashar al-Assad is being supplied with heavy weapons,
which he uses along with chemical weapons to massacre and torture
Sunni women and children, is serving as an enormous recruiting
opportunity for Sunni jihadists in South Asia, the Mideast, the
Maghreb (northern Africa), and the Caucasus. However, Algeria has
been cracking down on Syria-bound jihadists, by infiltrating and
dismantling recruitment cells.

** 12-Oct-13 World View -- Israel and Saudi Arabia furious over talk of U.S.-Russia-Iran deal on Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131012


If al-Assad and Russia had stopped pursuing genocidal policies two
years ago, then the war would have fizzled, and it's possible that
Syria could return to its pre-war "normal." However, the long delay,
and the repeated slaughter, torture and massacre of innocent Sunni
civilians in Syria has electrified the entire region, inflaming the
Sunni-Shia fault line, and Sunni jihadists from places as far away as
Pakistan, Algeria, and Chechnya have been arriving in Syria to fight
the al-Assad regime. On top of all those factors, over 2.1 million
Syrian refugees have poured into neighboring countries, destabilizing
those economies.

** 18-Oct-13 World View -- Multiple bombings across Iraq kill more than 60, mostly Shias
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131018

In a new paroxysm of violence in Iraq on Thursday, well over 60 people
were killed by a series of car bombings that struck across Baghdad,
along with additional suicide bombings in northern Iraq. The bombs
targeted Shia neighborhoods, and it's assumed that the perpetrators
were al-Qaeda linked terrorists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant/Sham/Syria (ISIS). President George Bush's military "surge" in
2007 was successful in ejecting al-Qaeda from Iraq, but since the
American withdrawal in December 2011, all that work has been coming
undone. With Syria's civil war continuing, the fault line between
Sunni and Shia Muslims is increasingly inflamed throughout the
Mideast, and is drawing both Sunni and Shia jihadists into the region.



** 12-Nov-13 World View -- Iran's statement on Syria shows signs of desperation
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131112


A statement by Iran's foreign minister Mohamed Javad Zarif to a BBC
interviewer is so completely full of crap that it sounds like
desperation. Zarif expressed outrage at terrorism and extremism by
Sunni jihadists, and totally ignored 30 years of Iranian Shia
terrorism through the Revolutionary Guard Corp, and through direct
funding of Hezbollah and other violent terrorist groups. Sunni
jihadists now targeting Hezbollah, Iran's allies in Syria, and Iran
itself. Call it Kismet, call it Karma, or call it comeuppance, Iran
is now facing well-deserved retribution. ...

This is exactly the point that I've been making for months, except
that I place the blame squarely on Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia
have been supplying fighters and weapons to Shia/Alawite Bashar
al-Assad, who is trying to exterminate all the Sunnis in Syria. So of
course the Sunni jihadists from countries near and far are going to
flock to Syria to fight al-Assad. Are the Iranian and Russian leaders
so incredibly stupid that they didn't think that would happen?
Apparently so. But that's typical of the utter stupidity of many
politicians in many countries.

By this time, Zarif sounded completely desperate. Iran has been
fanning the flames of sectarian violence in Syria since the war
started 2 1/2 years ago, and now it's biting them on the ass. The
wealthy Saudis are gearing up for a fight, the bankrupt Iranians can't
compete, and Sunni jihadists are striking within Iran itself.

Thanks to the psychopathic behavior by al-Assad, fully and
enthusiastically supported by the Russians, indirectly supported by
the Obama administration, Syria has become a magnet for al-Qaeda
linked jihadists from Pakistan, Algeria, Dagestan, and other regions.
The result is Syria has two different opposition forces -- the
original Syrian "rebels," and the jihadists.

** 20-Nov-13 World View -- Lebanon bombing sharply escalates sectarian Mideast conflict
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131120


The al-Qaeda linked Abdullah Azzam Brigades have taken credit for the
bombing, which appears to be a major new step in the escalation of the
sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict in the Mideast. The trigger that
started this growing sectarian conflict is the actions by Syria's
Shia/Alawite pathological genocidal monster, Bashar al-Assad, using
everything from mortars to chemical weapons to kill innocent Sunni
civilians in Syria. But the conflict has been made much worse by the
catastrophic actions of Russia and Iran in supplying weapons and
fighters to support al-Assad in his mass slaughter. This has drawn
Sunni jihadists, sometimes funded by Saudi Arabia, from countries near
and far to come to Syria to fight against al-Assad. The war may have
been largely restricted to Syria up till now, but Tuesday's bombing is
a major step forward, on the road to a major war engulfing the entire
Mideast.

** 7-Dec-13 World View -- 'Al-Qaeda in Syria' has become official
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131207


For months I've been reporting that Syria has become a magnet for
Sunni jihadists from regions as far away as Pakistan, Algeria and
Dagestan. This is the next step in that process, as Syria and Iraq
become a major center for jihadist activity in the Mideast.

And once again, I have to identify where the fault lies. Syria's
Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad is a genocidal monster who has
used heavy weapons and even chemical weapons to kill hundreds of
thousands of Sunni women, children and other civilians, and has driven
millions of people from their homes. Russia and Iran are actively
contributing to this genocide by supplying weapons and soldiers to
al-Assad. This has been an absolutely disastrous policy by Russia and
Iran, with the full support and cooperation of President Barack Obama.

** 12-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain halt 'non-lethal aid' to Syria's rebels
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131212


The Russian policy has been a disaster, as it's drawn jihadists from
as far away as Pakistan, Algerian and Dagestan to fight in Syria,
causing sectarian tensions to surge throughout the Mideast. The
Russians are responsible for the creation of Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIL,
by supplying weapons to a genocidal monster.

** 13-Dec-13 World View -- Russia prepares for Chechen jihadists' return from Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131213


Russia has brought this violent blowback on itself, by providing
enormous amounts of the heavy weapons to the Shia/Alawite al-Assad to
use to exterminate Sunni women and children in Syria. This has caused
Sunni jihadists to declare that it's their sacred duty to help the
oppressed people in Syria, making Syria the center of jihadist
activity in the Mideast, and inflaming sectarian tensions throughout
the region.

** 16-Dec-13 World View -- Syria's air force drops 'barrel bombs' on Aleppo neighborhoods
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131216


The massive slaughter of Sunnis by Syria's Shia/Alawite president, has
turned Syria into a magnet for jihadists from countries as far away as
Pakistan, Algeria and Russia. Sectarian Sunni versus Shia tensions
are growing throughout the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia apparently
providing funding to Sunni groups within Syria. Furthermore, with
millions of refugees continuing to flood other countries, the entire
Mideast has become politically and economically unstable. Thanks to
the policies particularly of Russia and the United States, the
instability of several Mideast countries could spiral into a war at
any time.

** 17-Dec-13 World View -- Arab states split over issue of Iran's rapprochement with the West
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131217


In the meantime, the actions of Alawite/Shia Bashar al-Assad to try to
exterminate all the Sunnis in Syria has inflamed the entire Mideast
along sectarian lines, and has turned Syria into a magnet for Sunni
jihadists from all over the world. This is an absolute disaster.

** 30-Dec-13 World View -- Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanon's army to buy weapons
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e131230


More and more, the sectarian conflict in Syria is spilling over into
Lebanon, and into the entire Mideast. Thanks to the actions of
Syria's genocidal monster president Bashar al-Assad, and his devoted
weapons supplier Vladimir Putin, Syria has become a magnet for
jihadists from all over the world. Sectarian tensions continue to
grow each day, and a sectarian war will not be far off.