3-Sep-16 World View -- Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute / Reading between the lines

[John]

3-Sep-16 World View -- Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute

Reading between the lines: Russia, Japan, China, India and border disputes

** 3-Sep-16 World View -- Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160903



Contents:
Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute
Reading between the lines: Russia, Japan, China, India and border disputes


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, Japan, Northern Territory, Kuril Islands,
Vladimir Putin, Abe Shinzo, Vladivostok, China, India, Senkaku Islands,
Vietnam, Philippines, Pakistan

[guest]

So, perhaps, if I follow you correctly, John, you are saying that the Russians might return the Kuril Islands because they will be allies with Japan in the next world war?

Japan has good relations with India; one of the few countries in Asia that doesn't have a bone to pick with them. (Japan didn't have a chance to colonize and torment the Indians. They did,however, arm and equip a rebel Indian army during ww2.) China is a bitter enemy of the Indians, so it's a natural fit with the Japanese. Russia and India are sort of friends...so that alliance would fit together.

I doubt Russia would give up the Kurils. There are a lot of natural resources there and it is a strategic location in Asia.

If Russia does give back the islands, then I will know that war is just around the corner.

[WorldMan]

I am confused, just because the two countries aren't bitter enemies (though they have fought against each other in two major wars in the 20th century Russo-Japanese which was embarrassing for Russia and WWII) I don't see how that turns into Russia being okay with handing over the islands. Are you more just pointing out how the two countries go about it and the more friendly nature compared to China versus everyone else?

One typo I believe,

On the other hand, China also has a border disagreement with Pakistan, but there's vitriol(I assumed it is suppose to say "there's no vitriol") over that, as both countries describe their relationship as "all-weather friends," "deeper than the deepest ocean," "sweeter than honey" and "dearer than eyesight

[John]

There are two separate issues here.

One issue is whether Russia will give back the Kuril Islands.
Analysts don't think so, but Abe is hoping for a compromise where he
gets two of the four islands back, and Putin is hinting that such a
compromise is possible. Both of them seem to want to sign a peace
treaty to end World War II, and Abe knows that Putin won't give back
all the islands, while Putin knows that Abe won't sign without some
significant concession. So returning two islands is apparently on
the table.

The second issue is whether Russia and Japan are going to war. What
I'm saying is that these border negotiations are so cordial, and so
free of vitriol, that they are NOT going to war. Contrast that with
the fact that China is determined to piss everyone off and threaten
everyone militarily.

Thanks for pointing out the typo.

[guest]

But could Russia returning a couple of islands portent a future alliance against China?